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    • All HBS Web  (3,381)
      • Faculty Publications  (1,057)

      Forecasting And PredictionRemove Forecasting And Prediction →

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      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      The Effects of Information on Credit Market Competition: Evidence from Credit Cards

      By: C. Fritz Foley, Agustin Hurtado, Andres Liberman and Alberto Sepulveda
      We show empirically that public credit information increases competition in credit markets. We access data that cover all credit card borrowers in Chile and include details about relationship borrowers have with each lender. We exploit a natural experiment whereby a... View Details
      Keywords: Consumer Credit; Financial Intermediaries; Credit; Information; Competition; Credit Cards; Financial Institutions
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      Foley, C. Fritz, Agustin Hurtado, Andres Liberman, and Alberto Sepulveda. "The Effects of Information on Credit Market Competition: Evidence from Credit Cards." Working Paper, February 2020.
      • January 2020 (Revised April 2020)
      • Teaching Note

      Brandless: Disrupting Consumer Packaged Goods

      By: Jill Avery
      Brandless, an online direct-to-consumer seller of upscale private-label consumer packaged goods (CPG), offered consumers a limited assortment of values-conscious products delivered directly to their homes with the simplicity of one fixed $3.00 price point that promised... View Details
      Keywords: Brand; Brand Management; DTC; Private Label; Groceries; Packaged Food; Personal Care; Startups; Retailing; Amazon; Brands and Branding; Marketing; Marketing Strategy; Business Startups; Disruption; E-commerce; Consumer Products Industry; Retail Industry; United States
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      Avery, Jill. "Brandless: Disrupting Consumer Packaged Goods." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 520-058, January 2020. (Revised April 2020.)
      • 2020
      • Working Paper

      Reinventing Retail: The Novel Resurgence of Independent Bookstores

      By: Ryan Raffaelli
      This study examines how community-based brick-and-mortar retailers can achieve sustained market growth in the face of online and big box retail competition. The appearance of Amazon.com in 1995 led to a significant decline in the number of independent bookstores in the... View Details
      Keywords: Bookstores; Competitive Strategy; Business and Community Relations; Customization and Personalization; Growth and Development; Retail Industry; United States
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      Raffaelli, Ryan. "Reinventing Retail: The Novel Resurgence of Independent Bookstores." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-068, January 2020.
      • January 2020
      • Case

      A Tough Call: SEAL Team Leader in Kandahar (A)

      By: George A. Riedel
      The case, which is a disguised version of real events, is set in Kandahar, Afghanistan (2013) during the long running Afghan war. Lt. Paul Rickson, a Navy SEAL Platoon Commander, is leading a team of 30 U.S. and Afghan soldiers on a mission to clear hostile forces in... View Details
      Keywords: War; Leadership; Risk and Uncertainty; Safety; Decision Choices and Conditions; Afghanistan
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      Riedel, George A. "A Tough Call: SEAL Team Leader in Kandahar (A)." Harvard Business School Case 320-001, January 2020.
      • 2019
      • Working Paper

      Industrial Change, the Boundary of the Firm, and Racial Employment Segregation

      By: John-Paul Ferguson and Rembrand Koning
      Racial employment segregation between large workplaces in America has grown over the last generation. We know little about how changes in patterns of employment by economic sector have contributed to this growth, though. While there are many stylized narratives about... View Details
      Keywords: Workplace Segregation; Firm Boundaries; Organizations; Employees; Segmentation; Race; Change; United States
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      Ferguson, John-Paul, and Rembrand Koning. "Industrial Change, the Boundary of the Firm, and Racial Employment Segregation." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-069, December 2019.
      • 2020
      • Conference Presentation

      A Performance-optimized Limb Detection Model Selectively Predicts Behavioral Responses Based on Movement Similarity

      By: X. Zhao, J. De Freitas, L. Tarhan and G. A. Alvarez
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      Zhao, X., J. De Freitas, L. Tarhan, and G. A. Alvarez. "A Performance-optimized Limb Detection Model Selectively Predicts Behavioral Responses Based on Movement Similarity." Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Vision Sciences Society, St. Pete Beach, FL, 2020.
      • Article

      Beyond Emotional Similarity: The Role of Situation-specific Motives

      By: Amit Goldenberg, David Garcia, Eran Halperin, Jamil Zaki, Danyang Kong, Golijeh Golarai and James J. Gross
      It is well established that people often express emotions that are similar to those of other group members. However, people do not always express emotions that are similar to other group members, and the factors that determine when similarity occurs are not yet clear.... View Details
      Keywords: Emotion Contagion; Emotional Influence; Motivation; Group Dynamics; Emotions; Situation or Environment; Motivation and Incentives; Behavior
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      Goldenberg, Amit, David Garcia, Eran Halperin, Jamil Zaki, Danyang Kong, Golijeh Golarai, and James J. Gross. "Beyond Emotional Similarity: The Role of Situation-specific Motives." Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 149, no. 1 (January 2020): 138–159.
      • 2020
      • Conference Presentation

      Semantic Embeddings of Verbal Descriptions Predict Action Similarity Judgments

      By: L. Tarhan, J. De Freitas, G. A. Alvarez and T. Konkle
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      Tarhan, L., J. De Freitas, G. A. Alvarez, and T. Konkle. "Semantic Embeddings of Verbal Descriptions Predict Action Similarity Judgments." Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Vision Sciences Society, St. Pete Beach, FL, 2020.
      • December 2019
      • Case

      Forecasting ClimaCell

      By: Joshua Lev Krieger, Christopher Stanton and James Barnett
      A weather technology startup, ClimaCell considers the R&D trade-offs and financing implications of pursuing a proposed contract with a major automobile maker, rather than continuing its focus on building a scalable, all-purpose weather prediction engine. View Details
      Keywords: Weather; Forecasting and Prediction; Technological Innovation; Research and Development; Finance; Cost vs Benefits; Decision Making; Strategy
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      Krieger, Joshua Lev, Christopher Stanton, and James Barnett. "Forecasting ClimaCell." Harvard Business School Case 820-044, December 2019.
      • December 2019
      • Article

      The Impact of Increasing Search Frictions on Online Shopping Behavior: Evidence from a Field Experiment

      By: Donald Ngwe, Kris J. Ferreira and Thales Teixeira
      Many online stores are designed such that shoppers can easily access any available discounted products. We propose that deliberately increasing search frictions by placing small obstacles to locating discounted items can improve online retailers’ margins and even... View Details
      Keywords: Online Retailing; Friction; Effor; Search Costs; Price Discrimination; Marketing; Consumer Behavior; Strategy; Price; E-commerce; Retail Industry; Fashion Industry
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      Ngwe, Donald, Kris J. Ferreira, and Thales Teixeira. "The Impact of Increasing Search Frictions on Online Shopping Behavior: Evidence from a Field Experiment." Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) 56, no. 6 (December 2019): 944–959.
      • November 2019
      • Case

      Floating the Exchange Rate: In Pursuit of the Chinese Dream

      By: Laura Alfaro and Sarah Jeong
      In the decades following 2005, China faced significant financial challenges. Inflation spiraled upwards and China’s economy stagnated in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis. The country’s leaders took an interventionist approach to weather the storm, controlling... View Details
      Keywords: Exchange Rate; Inflation; Debt; Currency Exchange Rate; Inflation and Deflation; Borrowing and Debt; China
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      Alfaro, Laura, and Sarah Jeong. "Floating the Exchange Rate: In Pursuit of the Chinese Dream." Harvard Business School Case 320-039, November 2019.
      • November 2019
      • Article

      Conversations and Idea Generation: Evidence from a Field Experiment

      By: Sharique Hasan and Rembrand Koning
      When do conversations lead people to generate better ideas? We conducted a field experiment at a startup boot camp to evaluate the impact of informal conversations on the quality of product ideas generated by participants. Specifically, we examine how the personality... View Details
      Keywords: Peer Effects; Field Experiment; Interpersonal Communication; Creativity; Personal Characteristics; Entrepreneurship; Innovation and Invention
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      Hasan, Sharique, and Rembrand Koning. "Conversations and Idea Generation: Evidence from a Field Experiment." Art. 103811. Research Policy 48, no. 9 (November 2019).
      • November–December 2019
      • Article

      Head, Heart or Hands: How Do Employees Respond to a Radical Global Language Change Over Time?

      By: Sebastian Reiche and Tsedal Neeley
      To understand how recipients respond to radical change over time across cognitive, affective, and behavioral dimensions, we conducted a longitudinal study of a mandated language change at a Chilean subsidiary of a large U.S. multinational organization. The... View Details
      Keywords: Language; Communication; Change; Employees; Attitudes; Emotions; Globalized Firms and Management
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      Reiche, Sebastian, and Tsedal Neeley. "Head, Heart or Hands: How Do Employees Respond to a Radical Global Language Change Over Time?" Organization Science 30, no. 6 (November–December 2019): 1252–1269.
      • 2019
      • Working Paper

      The Impact of the General Data Protection Regulation on Internet Interconnection

      By: Ran Zhuo, Bradley Huffaker, KC Claffy and Shane Greenstein
      The Internet comprises thousands of independently operated networks, where bilaterally negotiated interconnection agreements determine the flow of data between networks. The European Union’s General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) imposes strict restrictions on... View Details
      Keywords: Personal Data; Privacy Regulation; GDPR; Interconnection Agreements; Internet and the Web; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; European Union
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      Zhuo, Ran, Bradley Huffaker, KC Claffy, and Shane Greenstein. "The Impact of the General Data Protection Regulation on Internet Interconnection." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 26481, November 2019.
      • October 2019
      • Case

      GRIT Fitness

      By: Lynda M. Applegate and Olivia Hull
      In December 2018, GRIT Fitness was a growing chain of boutique fitness studios offering a variety of workout classes, including weightlifting, high intensity interval training, and cardio dance. With 400 members and three Dallas studios, CEO Brittani Rettig believed... View Details
      Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Business Startups; Mission and Purpose; Corporate Strategy; Customer Focus and Relationships; Forecasting and Prediction; Business Plan; Trends; Experience and Expertise; Talent and Talent Management; Training; Health; Selection and Staffing; Leadership Style; Leadership Development; Management Style; Management Teams; Brands and Branding; Organizational Culture; Organizational Structure; Motivation and Incentives; Sports; Competition; Diversification; Expansion; Value Creation; Health Industry; Sports Industry; Texas
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      Applegate, Lynda M., and Olivia Hull. "GRIT Fitness." Harvard Business School Case 820-016, October 2019.
      • October 2019 (Revised August 2020)
      • Case

      The Predictive Index

      By: Lynda M. Applegate and James Weber
      Mike Zani and Daniel Muzquiz needed to decide next steps to create a new category in the human resources consulting industry and scale their company.
      Zani and Muzquiz, serial entrepreneurs, acquired Predictive Index in 2014. Previously, as clients of the... View Details
      Keywords: Human Resources; Selection and Staffing; Talent and Talent Management; Recruitment; Corporate Entrepreneurship; Venture Capital; Change Management; Disruptive Innovation; Digital Platforms; Growth and Development Strategy; Consulting Industry; Service Industry; United States
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      Applegate, Lynda M., and James Weber. "The Predictive Index." Harvard Business School Case 820-034, October 2019. (Revised August 2020.)
      • October 2019 (Revised August 2020)
      • Case

      Souqalmal: The Choice Is Yours (A)

      By: V.G. Narayanan and Alpana Thapar
      This case describes how Ambareen Musa, Founder and CEO of Souqalmal, a Dubai-based online comparison aggregator of banking and insurance products launched her business in 2011 and rapidly grew it over next couple of years. However, by 2017, the Mauritian entrepreneur... View Details
      Keywords: Unit Economics; Finance; Accounting; Competitive Strategy; Financial Statements; Insurance Industry; Middle East
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      Narayanan, V.G., and Alpana Thapar. "Souqalmal: The Choice Is Yours (A)." Harvard Business School Case 120-028, October 2019. (Revised August 2020.)
      • 2019
      • Working Paper

      Soul and Machine (Learning)

      By: Davide Proserpio, John R. Hauser, Xiao Liu, Tomomichi Amano, Alex Burnap, Tong Guo, Dokyun Lee, Randall Lewis, Kanishka Misra, Eric Schwarz, Artem Timoshenko, Lilei Xu and Hema Yoganarasimhan
      Machine learning is bringing us self-driving cars, improved medical diagnostics, and machine translation, but can it improve marketing decisions? It can. Machine learning models predict extremely well, are scalable to “big data,” and are a natural fit to rich media... View Details
      Keywords: Machine Learning; Technological Innovation; Marketing; AI and Machine Learning
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      Proserpio, Davide, John R. Hauser, Xiao Liu, Tomomichi Amano, Alex Burnap, Tong Guo, Dokyun Lee, Randall Lewis, Kanishka Misra, Eric Schwarz, Artem Timoshenko, Lilei Xu, and Hema Yoganarasimhan. "Soul and Machine (Learning)." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-036, September 2019.
      • Fall 2019
      • Article

      Endogenous Productivity of Demand-Induced R&D: Evidence from Pharmaceuticals

      By: Kyle Myers and Mark Pauly
      We examine trends in the productivity of the pharmaceutical sector over the past three decades. Motivated by Ricardo’s insight that productivity and rents are endogenous to demand when inputs are scarce, we examine the industry’s aggregate R&D production function.... View Details
      Keywords: Innovation; Productivity; Pharmaceuticals; Innovation and Invention; Performance Productivity; Pharmaceutical Industry
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      Myers, Kyle, and Mark Pauly. "Endogenous Productivity of Demand-Induced R&D: Evidence from Pharmaceuticals." RAND Journal of Economics 50, no. 3 (Fall 2019): 591–614.
      • September 2019
      • Article

      Technology Reemergence: Creating New Value for Old Technologies in Swiss Mechanical Watchmaking, 1970-2008

      By: Ryan Raffaelli
      In 1983, 14 years after the introduction of the battery-powered quartz watch, mechanical watches and the Swiss watchmakers who built them were predicted to be obsolete (Landes, 1983). Unexpectedly, however, by 2008 the Swiss mechanical watchmaking industry had... View Details
      Keywords: Technology Reemergence; Technology Cycles; Cognition And Market Redefinition; Legacy Technology Trajectories; Information Technology; Demand and Consumers; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Identity; Change; Consumer Products Industry; Switzerland
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      Raffaelli, Ryan. "Technology Reemergence: Creating New Value for Old Technologies in Swiss Mechanical Watchmaking, 1970-2008." Administrative Science Quarterly 64, no. 3 (September 2019): 576–618.
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