Financing Risk - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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2022
Article

Climate Change Vulnerability and Currency Returns

By: Alex Cheema-Fox, George Serafeim and Hui (Stacie) Wang

Using measures of physical risk from climate change, we develop a methodology to allocate currency pairs according to a country’s vulnerability and construct portfolios with decreasing vulnerability to physical risk. We show that non-G10 currencies are more vulnerable... View Details

Keywords: Climate Finance; Vulnerabilities; Currencies; Foreign Exchange; Climate Change; Currency; Natural Disasters

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2023
Working Paper

Scoring and Funding Breakthrough Ideas: Evidence from a Global Pharmaceutical Company

By: Joshua Krieger, Ramana Nanda, Ian Hunt, Aimee Reynolds and Peter Tarsa

We study resource allocation to early-stage ideas at an internal startup program of one the largest pharmaceutical firms in the world. Our research design enables us to elicit every evaluator’s scores across five different attributes, before seeing how they would... View Details

Keywords: Project Selection; Pharmaceuticals; Financing Innovation; Resource Allocation; Innovation and Invention; Research and Development

August 2011 (Revised October 2015)
Case

Boardroom Battle Behind Bars: Gome Electrical Appliances Holdings—A Corporate Governance Drama

By: William C. Kirby and Tracy Yuen Manty

Despite widespread news of the incarceration of Gome Electronics' CEO, Huang Guangyu, Bain Capital felt they carefully undertook due diligence before making a significant investment in the company. The venture capital firm was confident that it and the current... View Details

Keywords: China; Legal Aspects Of Business; Corruption; Risk; Corporate Governance; Crime and Corruption; Power and Influence; Risk Management; Business and Shareholder Relations; Venture Capital; Ethics; Governing and Advisory Boards; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Values and Beliefs; Private Equity; China

10 Jul 2014
News

A Case for Group Risk-Taking

Keywords: risk; decision making; group responsibiklity; team dynamics; Finance

August 2023
Article

Can Security Design Foster Household Risk-Taking?

By: Laurent Calvet, Claire Célérier, Paolo Sodini and Boris Vallée

This paper shows that securities with a non-linear payoff design can foster household risk-taking. We demonstrate this effect empirically by exploiting the introduction of capital guarantee products in Sweden from 2002 to 2007. The fast and broad adoption of these... View Details

Keywords: Financial Innovation; Household Finance; Structured Products; Stock Market Participation; Finance; Innovation and Invention; Household; Personal Finance; Risk and Uncertainty; Behavior; Market Participation

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Article

Sustainability in Financial Services Is Not About Being Green

By: Robert G. Eccles and George Serafeim

Keywords: Sustainability; Financial Services; Banks; Insurance Companies; Risk; Risk Management; Insurance; Accounting; Banks and Banking; Financial Services Industry

July 2018 (Revised July 2018)
Teaching Note

Argentina Power—Don’t Cry for Me Argentina

By: Nori Gerardo Lietz and Sayiddah Fatima McCree

Teaching Note for HBS No. 218-041. This case concerns a complex potential energy infrastructure investment in Argentina by a global conglomerate shortly after Mauricio Macri (“Macri”) became President of Argentina in 2015. The central issues are (i) why was a country... View Details

Keywords: Argentina; Argentine Exceptionalism; Infrastructure Finance; Investing; Finance; Inflation and Deflation; Government and Politics; Energy Generation; Infrastructure; Utilities Industry; Energy Industry; Financial Services Industry; Argentina; South America

2024
Working Paper

Climate Solutions, Transition Risk, and Stock Returns

By: Shirley Lu, Edward J. Riedl, Simon Xu and George Serafeim

Using large language models to measure firms' climate solution products and services, we find that high-climate solution firms exhibit lower stock returns and higher market valuation multiples. Their stock prices respond positively to events signaling increased demand... View Details

Keywords: Technology; Generative Ai; Large Language Models; Climate Finance; Climate Change; Innovation and Invention; Environmental Sustainability; AI and Machine Learning; Investment; Financial Markets

July 2023 (Revised May 2024)
Case

Vytal: Packaging-as-a-Service

By: George Serafeim, Michael W. Toffel, Lena Duchene and Daniela Beyersdorfer

The Germany-based startup Vytal operated the largest digital-native reusable packaging-as-a-service network globally, having raised nearly €15 million, established a large network of restaurant partners, and prevented the use of millions of single-use take-out food... View Details

February 2021
Supplement

HNA Group: Global Excellence with Chinese Characteristics (C)

By: William C. Kirby, Billy Chan and John P. McHugh

July 2017 was supposed to be a triumphant month for HNA Group. The latest Fortune Global 500 list showed the company had again skyrocketed in its ranking to no. 170, an improvement of over 200 positions from the year prior. Yet earlier that same July, the mysterious... View Details

Keywords: Conglomerate; Airline Industry; Coronavirus; Financial Risk; Debt; Bankruptcy; Global Strategy; Restructuring; Health Pandemics; Financial Markets; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Financial Condition; Globalized Firms and Management; Business and Government Relations; Air Transportation Industry; Financial Services Industry; China

September 2012 (Revised September 2015)
Case

Doing Business in Argentina

By: Rawi Abdelal, Amy C. Edmondson, Felix Oberholzer-Gee, Gustavo A. Herrero and Regina Garcia-Cuellar

An imaginary oil company is invited to participate in a potentially lucrative investment in a large oil field just as the Argentine government is taking actions that seem to jeopardize private property rights within its borders. This case highlights the risks and... View Details

Keywords: Business Evaluation; Fieldwork; Emergent Countries; Emerging Market Finance; Emerging Markets; Business Ventures; Strategy; Argentina

April 2023
Case

Elliott Management: Capital Allocation in Biopharma

By: Amitabh Chandra, Paul Clancy and Lauren Gunasti

The case explores the intersection of capital allocation and shareholder activism in the biopharmaceutical industry. As many biopharma companies face looming patent expirations for key medicines, the case asks the question of whether investing in R&D and M&A is an... View Details

Keywords: Finance; Strategy; Capital Allocation; Biopharmaceutical Industry; Shareholder Activism; Investment Activism; Resource Allocation; Research and Development; Business and Shareholder Relations; Corporate Strategy; Pharmaceutical Industry

June 2017
Article

Is Operating Flexibility Harmful under Debt?

By: Nikolaos Trichakis, Dan A. Iancu and Gerry Tsoukalas

We study the inefficiencies stemming from a firm's operating flexibility under debt. We find that flexibility in replenishing or liquidating inventory, by providing risk-shifting incentives, could lead to borrowing costs that erase more than a third of the firm's... View Details

Keywords: Covenants; Risk-shifting; Inventory; Agency Costs; Debt Financing; Risk Management; Borrowing and Debt

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Article

ESG Integration in Investment Management: Myths and Realities

By: Sakis Kotsantonis, Christopher Pinney and George Serafeim

The authors’ aim in this article is to set the record straight on the financial performance of sustainable investing while also correcting a number of other widespread misconceptions about this rapidly growing set of principles and methods. Myth Number 1:... View Details

Keywords: ESG; Sustainability; Investment Management; Finance; Corporate Social Responsibility; Integrated Corporate Reporting; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Investment; Environmental Sustainability; Corporate Governance

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February 2023
Article

OTC Intermediaries

By: Andrea L. Eisfeldt, Bernard Herskovic, Sriram Rajan and Emil Siriwardane

We study the effect of dealer exit on prices and quantities in a model of an over-the-counter (OTC) market featuring a core-periphery network with bilateral trading costs. The model is calibrated using regulatory data on the entire U.S. credit default swap (CDS) market... View Details

Keywords: OTC Markets; Intermediaries; Dealers; Credit Default Swaps; Risk Sharing; Financial Markets; Networks; Price; Risk and Uncertainty

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December 2021
Article

Trade Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns

By: Marcelo Bianconi, Federico Esposito and Marco Sammon

A recent literature has documented large real effects of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on trade, employment, and investment, but there is little evidence that investors are compensated for bearing such risk. To quantify the risk premium associated with TPU, we exploit... View Details

Keywords: Trade Policy; Uncertainty; Stock Returns; Risk Premium; Tariff Rates; Portfolio Analysis; Trade; Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Stocks; Investment Return

2016
Working Paper

Credit Migration and Covered Interest Rate Parity

By: Gordon Y Liao

I document economically large and persistent discrepancies in the pricing of credit risk between corporate bonds denominated in different currencies. The discrepancies amount to 50-100 basis points on trillions of dollars of debt notional. I relate this violation of... View Details

Keywords: Market Segmentation; Debt Issuance; Covered Interest Rate Parity; Cross-currency Basis; Credit Risk; Financial Markets; Credit

September 2012
Teaching Note

Kaesong Industrial Complex (A) and (B) (TN)

By: Eric Werker and Dante Roscini

Keywords: Foreign Investment; Country Risk; Bilateral Trade; Special Economic Zones; Risk and Uncertainty; Trade; Foreign Direct Investment

2014
Working Paper

Monitoring Public Procurement: Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design in Chile

By: Maria Paula Gerardino, Stephan Litschig and Dina D. Pomeranz

The government is the biggest buyer in the economy of most countries. At the same time, the public procurement process if often thought to be fraught with corruption and malpractice. However, there is little evidence regarding the impact of audits aimed at reducing... View Details

Keywords: Procurement; Chile; Corruption; Public Finance; Public Procurement; Public Sector; Public Administration Industry; Chile

October 2016 (Revised March 2019)
Case

Carrum Health: Scaling Bundled Payments

By: Robert S. Huckman and Sarah Mehta

Founded in 2014, Carrum Health helped self-insured employers located in three markets (San Diego, California; Seattle, Washington; and San Francisco, California) save money on their employees’ planned surgeries. It did so by contracting directly with top-quality... View Details

Keywords: Health Financing; Health Insurance; Value-based Healthcare Reimbursements; Bundled Payments; Innovation; Scale; Health; Health Care and Treatment; Cost Management; Growth and Development Strategy; Decision Choices and Conditions; Health Industry; California; San Francisco; San Diego; Seattle

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