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  • All HBS Web  (722)
    • People  (2)
    • News  (80)
    • Research  (505)
    • Events  (10)
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  • July–August 2024
  • Article

Doing More with Less: Overcoming Ineffective Long-Term Targeting Using Short-Term Signals

By: Ta-Wei Huang and Eva Ascarza
Firms are increasingly interested in developing targeted interventions for customers with the best response, which requires identifying differences in customer sensitivity, typically through the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation. In theory, to... View Details
Keywords: Long-run Targeting; Heterogeneous Treatment Effect; Statistical Surrogacy; Customer Churn; Field Experiments; Consumer Behavior; Customer Focus and Relationships; AI and Machine Learning; Marketing Strategy
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Huang, Ta-Wei, and Eva Ascarza. "Doing More with Less: Overcoming Ineffective Long-Term Targeting Using Short-Term Signals." Marketing Science 43, no. 4 (July–August 2024): 863–884.
  • March 2022
  • Article

Estimating the Effectiveness of Permanent Price Reductions for Competing Products Using Multivariate Bayesian Structural Time Series Models

By: Fiammetta Menchetti and Iavor Bojinov
Researchers regularly use synthetic control methods for estimating causal effects when a sub-set of units receive a single persistent treatment, and the rest are unaffected by the change. In many applications, however, units not assigned to treatment are nevertheless... View Details
Keywords: Causal Inference; Partial Interference; Synthetic Controls; Bayesian Structural Time Series; Mathematical Methods
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Menchetti, Fiammetta, and Iavor Bojinov. "Estimating the Effectiveness of Permanent Price Reductions for Competing Products Using Multivariate Bayesian Structural Time Series Models." Annals of Applied Statistics 16, no. 1 (March 2022): 414–435.
  • Article

Total Cost Control in Project Management via Satisficing

By: Joel Goh and Nicholas G. Hall
We consider projects with uncertain activity times and the possibility of expediting, or crashing, them. Activity times come from a partially specified distribution within a family of distributions. This family is described by one or more of the following details about... View Details
Keywords: Project Management; Time And Cost Control; Robust Optimization; Satisficing; Linear Decision Rule; PERT; Management; Cost Management; Projects
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Goh, Joel, and Nicholas G. Hall. "Total Cost Control in Project Management via Satisficing." Management Science 59, no. 6 (June 2013): 1354–1372.
  • March 2016 (Revised February 2023)
  • Teaching Note

Advertising Experiments at RestaurantGrades

By: Michael Luca, Weijia Dai and Hyunjin Kim
Advertising Experiments at RestaurantGrades is an exercise in which students are asked to analyze and make a recommendation on the basis of simulated experimental data. The setting is a hypothetical restaurant review company called RestaurantGrades (RG), which shows... View Details
Keywords: Advertising Campaigns; Marketing; Digital Marketing; Analysis; Performance Effectiveness
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Luca, Michael, Weijia Dai, and Hyunjin Kim. "Advertising Experiments at RestaurantGrades." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 916-039, March 2016. (Revised February 2023.)
  • March 2006 (Revised February 2007)
  • Case

UBS: Towards the Integrated Firm

By: Rajiv Lal, Nitin Nohria and Carin-Isabel Knoop
In late June 2005, UBS Group CEO Peter Wuffli--anointed "Master of Zurich" by the financial press--was returning to Zurich from the firm's latest three-day Senior Leadership Conference (SLC). Tapping 600 top managers, this SLC featured an outdoor event at a former... View Details
Keywords: Integration; Programs; Leadership; Talent and Talent Management; Trust
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Lal, Rajiv, Nitin Nohria, and Carin-Isabel Knoop. "UBS: Towards the Integrated Firm." Harvard Business School Case 506-026, March 2006. (Revised February 2007.)
  • March 2001 (Revised September 2005)
  • Case

Madison Avenue: Digital Media Services (C)

By July 2000, Madison Avenue had experienced extraordinary growth in sales, employees, clients, and service offerings. From late 1999 to July 2000, the company had taken several initiatives to redesign its internal processes so that the firm could continue to grow,... View Details
Keywords: Service Operations; Digital Marketing; Product Development; Growth and Development Strategy; Advertising Industry
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Spear, Steven J., and Anne Karshis. "Madison Avenue: Digital Media Services (C)." Harvard Business School Case 601-077, March 2001. (Revised September 2005.)
  • December 2021
  • Article

Seeing Oneself as a Valued Contributor: Social Worth Affirmation Improves Team Information Sharing

By: Julia Lee Cunningham, Francesca Gino, Dan Cable and Bradley Staats
Teams often fail to reach their potential because members’ concerns about being socially accepted prevent them from offering their unique perspectives to the team. Drawing on relational self and self-affirmation theory, we argue that affirmation of team members’ social... View Details
Keywords: Social Worth Affirmation; Relational Identity; Self-affirmation; Information Sharing In Teams; Concerns About Social Acceptance; Groups and Teams; Identity; Relationships; Knowledge Sharing
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Cunningham, Julia Lee, Francesca Gino, Dan Cable, and Bradley Staats. "Seeing Oneself as a Valued Contributor: Social Worth Affirmation Improves Team Information Sharing." Academy of Management Journal 64, no. 6 (December 2021): 1816–1841.
  • 2023
  • Working Paper

Distributionally Robust Causal Inference with Observational Data

By: Dimitris Bertsimas, Kosuke Imai and Michael Lingzhi Li
We consider the estimation of average treatment effects in observational studies and propose a new framework of robust causal inference with unobserved confounders. Our approach is based on distributionally robust optimization and proceeds in two steps. We first... View Details
Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Mathematical Methods
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Bertsimas, Dimitris, Kosuke Imai, and Michael Lingzhi Li. "Distributionally Robust Causal Inference with Observational Data." Working Paper, February 2023.
  • March 2022
  • Article

Learning to Rank an Assortment of Products

By: Kris Ferreira, Sunanda Parthasarathy and Shreyas Sekar
We consider the product ranking challenge that online retailers face when their customers typically behave as “window shoppers”: they form an impression of the assortment after browsing products ranked in the initial positions and then decide whether to continue... View Details
Keywords: Online Learning; Product Ranking; Assortment Optimization; Learning; Internet and the Web; Product Marketing; Consumer Behavior; E-commerce
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Ferreira, Kris, Sunanda Parthasarathy, and Shreyas Sekar. "Learning to Rank an Assortment of Products." Management Science 68, no. 3 (March 2022): 1828–1848.
  • 2021
  • Article

Does Fair Ranking Improve Minority Outcomes? Understanding the Interplay of Human and Algorithmic Biases in Online Hiring

By: Tom Sühr, Sophie Hilgard and Himabindu Lakkaraju
Ranking algorithms are being widely employed in various online hiring platforms including LinkedIn, TaskRabbit, and Fiverr. Prior research has demonstrated that ranking algorithms employed by these platforms are prone to a variety of undesirable biases, leading to the... View Details
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Sühr, Tom, Sophie Hilgard, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "Does Fair Ranking Improve Minority Outcomes? Understanding the Interplay of Human and Algorithmic Biases in Online Hiring." Proceedings of the AAAI/ACM Conference on Artificial Intelligence, Ethics, and Society 4th (2021).
  • Article

Transition to Clean Technology

By: Daron Acemoglu, Ufuk Akcigit, Douglas Hanley and William R. Kerr
We develop a microeconomic model of endogenous growth where clean and dirty technologies compete in production and innovation, in the sense that research can be directed to either clean or dirty technologies. If dirty technologies are more advanced to start with, the... View Details
Keywords: Technological Innovation; Entrepreneurship; Environmental Sustainability; Green Technology Industry
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Acemoglu, Daron, Ufuk Akcigit, Douglas Hanley, and William R. Kerr. "Transition to Clean Technology." Special Issue on Climate Change and the Economy. Journal of Political Economy 124, no. 2 (February 2016): 52–104.
  • 11 Sep 2017
  • Research & Ideas

Why Employers Favor Men

discrimination does indeed work against women in the hiring process. Testing for gender bias To simulate a real-life hiring situation, the researchers created online experiments with 100 participants representing workers seeking jobs, and... View Details
Keywords: by Dina Gerdeman
  • November 2020
  • Article

Taxation in Matching Markets

By: Arnaud Dupuy, Alfred Galichon, Sonia Jaffe and Scott Duke Kominers
We analyze the effects of taxation in two-sided matching markets, i.e., markets in which all agents have heterogeneous preferences over potential partners. In matching markets, taxes can generate inefficiency on the allocative margin by changing who is matched to whom,... View Details
Keywords: Matching Markets; Labor Markets; Taxation; Labor; Markets
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Dupuy, Arnaud, Alfred Galichon, Sonia Jaffe, and Scott Duke Kominers. "Taxation in Matching Markets." International Economic Review 61, no. 4 (November 2020): 1591–1634.
  • October 2007
  • Article

The Power of Stars: Do Star Actors Drive the Success of Movies?

By: Anita Elberse
Is the involvement of star actors critical to the success of motion pictures? Film studios, which they regularly pay multimillion-dollar fees to star actors, seem driven by that belief. I shed light on the returns on this investment using an event study that considers... View Details
Keywords: Talent and Talent Management; Film Entertainment; Investment Return; Revenue; Compensation and Benefits; Resource Allocation; Success; Motion Pictures and Video Industry
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Elberse, Anita. "The Power of Stars: Do Star Actors Drive the Success of Movies?" Journal of Marketing 71, no. 4 (October 2007): 102–120. (Featured in HBS Working Knowledge.)
  • Research Summary

Overview

By: Jorge Tamayo
Professor Tamayo’s research focuses on theoretical modeling and structural estimation of firm decision-making and productivity.

Professor Tamayo studies dynamic competition for customer membership. Generally, firms that implement a membership model charge a... View Details
Keywords: Industrial Organization, Industrial Development; Management Practices and Processes; Management Skills; Management Style; Energy Generation; Performance Efficiency; Market Design; Crime and Corruption; Manufacturing Industry; Energy Industry
  • 2020
  • Working Paper

Strategic Foresight as Dynamic Capability: A New Lens on Knightian Uncertainty

By: J. Peter Scoblic
This paper proposes to treat strategic foresight as a dynamic capability, providing a new theoretical lens on managerial judgment. Formulating strategy under uncertainty is a central challenge facing the modern firm. Analogy is thought to help managers make sense of... View Details
Keywords: Foresight; Dynamic Capabilities; Managerial Judgment; Risk and Uncertainty; Management; Strategy
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Scoblic, J. Peter. "Strategic Foresight as Dynamic Capability: A New Lens on Knightian Uncertainty." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-093, March 2020.
  • 2012
  • Article

The Excess Burden of Government Indecision

By: Francisco J. Gomes, Laurence J. Kotlikoff and Luis M. Viceira
Governments are known for procrastinating when it comes to resolving painful policy problems. Whatever the political motives for waiting to decide, procrastination distorts economic decisions relative to what would arise with early policy resolution. In so doing, it... View Details
Keywords: Saving; Risk and Uncertainty; Investment Portfolio; Decision Choices and Conditions; Retirement; Policy; Government and Politics
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Gomes, Francisco J., Laurence J. Kotlikoff, and Luis M. Viceira. "The Excess Burden of Government Indecision." Tax Policy and the Economy 26 (2012): 125–163.
  • 2012
  • Working Paper

~Why Do We Redistribute so Much but Tag so Little? Normative Diversity, Equal Sacrifice and Optimal Taxation

By: Matthew Weinzierl
Tagging is a free lunch in conventional optimal tax theory because it eases the classic tradeoff between efficiency and equality. But tagging is used in only limited ways in tax policy. I propose one explanation: conventional optimal tax theory has yet to capture the... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Cost; Framework; Policy; Taxation; Analytics and Data Science; Performance Efficiency; United States
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Weinzierl, Matthew. "~Why Do We Redistribute so Much but Tag so Little? Normative Diversity, Equal Sacrifice and Optimal Taxation." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 12-064, January 2012. (Revised August 2012. NBER Working Paper Series, No. 18045, August 2012)
  • 2016
  • Article

Penalized Fast Subset Scanning

By: Skyler Speakman, Sriram Somanchi, Edward McFowland III and Daniel B. Neill
We present the penalized fast subset scan (PFSS), a new and general framework for scalable and accurate pattern detection. PFSS enables exact and efficient identification of the most anomalous subsets of the data, as measured by a likelihood ratio scan statistic.... View Details
Keywords: Disease Surveillance; Likelihood Ratio Statistic; Pattern Detection; Scan Statistic; Mathematical Methods
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Speakman, Skyler, Sriram Somanchi, Edward McFowland III, and Daniel B. Neill. "Penalized Fast Subset Scanning." Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics 25, no. 2 (2016): 382–404. (Selected for “Best of JCGS” invited session by the journal’s editor in chief.)
  • August 2021
  • Article

Multiple Imputation Using Gaussian Copulas

By: F.M. Hollenbach, I. Bojinov, S. Minhas, N.W. Metternich, M.D. Ward and A. Volfovsky
Missing observations are pervasive throughout empirical research, especially in the social sciences. Despite multiple approaches to dealing adequately with missing data, many scholars still fail to address this vital issue. In this paper, we present a simple-to-use... View Details
Keywords: Missing Data; Bayesian Statistics; Imputation; Categorical Data; Estimation
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Hollenbach, F.M., I. Bojinov, S. Minhas, N.W. Metternich, M.D. Ward, and A. Volfovsky. "Multiple Imputation Using Gaussian Copulas." Special Issue on New Quantitative Approaches to Studying Social Inequality. Sociological Methods & Research 50, no. 3 (August 2021): 1259–1283. (0049124118799381.)
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