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      • Faculty Publications  (2,819)

      Judgment And Decision MakingRemove Judgment And Decision Making →

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      • January 2023
      • Case

      Crow Holdings Development: Mass Timber Construction

      By: John D. Macomber, Robert Hernandez and Kyle MertensMeyer
      Jim McCaffery and Cody Armbrister of Crow Holdings Development evaluate the pros and cons of committing to mass timber construction instead of conventional concrete or steel for a new 260,000 SF multi-story office building in Texas. Benefits include substantially... View Details
      Keywords: Real Estate Development; Architecture; Air Quality; Health & Wellness; Office Property; Sustainability; Carbon Abatement; Natural Environment; Environmental Accounting; Green Buildings; Design; Construction; Cost vs Benefits; Environmental Sustainability; Construction Industry; Real Estate Industry; Texas
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      Macomber, John D., Robert Hernandez, and Kyle MertensMeyer. "Crow Holdings Development: Mass Timber Construction." Harvard Business School Case 223-058, January 2023.
      • January–February 2023
      • Article

      Data-Driven COVID-19 Vaccine Development for Janssen

      By: Dimitris Bertsimas, Michael Lingzhi Li, Xinggang Liu, Jennings Xu and Najat Khan
      The COVID-19 pandemic has spurred extensive vaccine research worldwide. One crucial part of vaccine development is the phase III clinical trial that assesses the vaccine for safety and efficacy in the prevention of COVID-19. In this work, we enumerate the first... View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19; Health Testing and Trials; Forecasting and Prediction; AI and Machine Learning; Research; Pharmaceutical Industry
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      Bertsimas, Dimitris, Michael Lingzhi Li, Xinggang Liu, Jennings Xu, and Najat Khan. "Data-Driven COVID-19 Vaccine Development for Janssen." INFORMS Journal on Applied Analytics 53, no. 1 (January–February 2023): 70–84.
      • December 2022
      • Case

      To Feed the Planet: Juan Luciano at ADM

      By: Joshua D. Margolis, David E. Bell, Damien McLoughlin, Stacy Straaberg and James Weber
      In December 2022, Juan Luciano, Chairman and CEO of agribusiness and nutrition giant ADM, considered the next phase of the historic company’s future. Beginning in 2011 when he joined as COO and moving into his tenure as CEO in 2015, Luciano led a transformation of ADM... View Details
      Keywords: Agriculture; Leadership; Agribusiness; Acquisition; Business Units; Customer Focus and Relationships; Customer Value and Value Chain; Forecasting and Prediction; Capital; Cash; Cost of Capital; Cost Management; Profit; Food; Global Range; Innovation Strategy; Leadership Development; Leadership Style; Leading Change; Growth and Development Strategy; Risk Management; Organizational Culture; Organizational Structure; Strategic Planning; Risk and Uncertainty; Adaptation; Business Strategy; Corporate Strategy; Vertical Integration; Value Creation; Transformation; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; United States; Chicago
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      Margolis, Joshua D., David E. Bell, Damien McLoughlin, Stacy Straaberg, and James Weber. "To Feed the Planet: Juan Luciano at ADM." Harvard Business School Case 423-060, December 2022.
      • December 2022
      • Case

      Taylor Farms: Adding Value to Fresh Produce

      By: José B. Alvarez, Forest L. Reinhardt, Jenyfeer Martinez Buitrago and Pedro Levindo
      In October 2022, Bruce Taylor (HBS MBA, 1981), Chairman and CEO of Taylor Farms, the leading producer of salads and healthy fresh foods in the United States, wondered whether this was the right time for Taylor Farms to venture into the Controlled Environment... View Details
      Keywords: Technology Adoption; Cost vs Benefits; Logistics; Environmental Sustainability; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry
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      Alvarez, José B., Forest L. Reinhardt, Jenyfeer Martinez Buitrago, and Pedro Levindo. "Taylor Farms: Adding Value to Fresh Produce." Harvard Business School Case 523-041, December 2022.
      • December 2022 (Revised August 2023)
      • Case

      Circles.Life at a Crossroads of Growth

      By: Juan Alcácer and Adina Wong
      In June 2022, the founders of Singapore mobile operator Circles.Life had a crucial decision to make. Circles.Life developed a new business model in mobile telecommunications—a digital telco—built around its proprietary operating system. After expanding its brand in... View Details
      Keywords: Business Model; Decisions; Technological Innovation; Applications and Software; Business Strategy; Telecommunications Industry; Singapore
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      Alcácer, Juan, and Adina Wong. "Circles.Life at a Crossroads of Growth." Harvard Business School Case 723-404, December 2022. (Revised August 2023.)
      • December 2022 (Revised May 2023)
      • Case

      Iberdrola: Leading the Energy Revolution

      By: Juan Alcácer and Emer Moloney
      At the end of 2019, Ignacio Galán, the Chairman and CEO of the world's third largest utility, Iberdrola, reflected on his almost 20 years at the company. He managed a portfolio of three very different businesses, each with their own specific opportunities and... View Details
      Keywords: Energy; Energy Generation; Energy Sources; Non-Renewable Energy; Renewable Energy; Engineering; Innovation and Management; Innovation Leadership; Innovation Strategy; Technological Innovation; Leadership; Growth and Development Strategy; Market Timing; Industry Growth; Mission and Purpose; Strategy; Energy Industry; Green Technology Industry; Utilities Industry; Transportation Industry; Auto Industry; Spain; United Kingdom; United States; Brazil; Mexico
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      Alcácer, Juan, and Emer Moloney. "Iberdrola: Leading the Energy Revolution." Harvard Business School Case 723-398, December 2022. (Revised May 2023.)
      • December 8, 2022
      • Article

      What Companies Still Get Wrong about Layoffs

      By: Sandra J. Sucher and Marilyn Morgan Westner
      Research has long shown that layoffs have a detrimental effect on individuals and on corporate performance. The short-term cost savings provided by a layoff are often overshadowed by bad publicity, loss of knowledge, weakened engagement, higher voluntary turnover, and... View Details
      Keywords: Resignation and Termination; Employment; Selection and Staffing; Performance
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      Sucher, Sandra J., and Marilyn Morgan Westner. "What Companies Still Get Wrong about Layoffs." Harvard Business Review (website) (December 8, 2022).
      • December 2022 (Revised May 2024)
      • Background Note

      Brief Note on Staggered Boards

      By: Lynn S. Paine and Will Hurwitz
      This background note discusses the evolution, use, and prevalence of staggered boards. By comparison with unitary boards whose members are all elected annually for one-year terms, staggered boards are divided into subsets of directors, with one subset up for election... View Details
      Keywords: Corporate Governance; Governing and Advisory Boards; Business History; Trends; Decision Choices and Conditions; United States
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      Paine, Lynn S., and Will Hurwitz. "Brief Note on Staggered Boards." Harvard Business School Background Note 323-040, December 2022. (Revised May 2024.)
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Stories, Statistics and Memory

      By: Thomas Graeber, Christopher Roth and Florian Zimmermann
      For most decisions, we rely on information encountered over the course of days, months or years. We consume this information in various forms, including abstract summaries of multiple data points – statistics – and contextualized anecdotes about individual instances... View Details
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Information Types; Media; Cognition and Thinking
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      Graeber, Thomas, Christopher Roth, and Florian Zimmermann. "Stories, Statistics and Memory." Working Paper, December 2022.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Human-Computer Interactions in Demand Forecasting and Labor Scheduling Decisions

      By: Caleb Kwon, Ananth Raman and Jorge Tamayo
      We empirically analyze how managerial overrides to a commercial algorithm that forecasts demand and schedules labor affect store performance. We analyze administrative data from a large grocery retailer that utilizes a commercial algorithm to forecast demand and... View Details
      Keywords: Employees; Human Capital; Performance; Applications and Software; Management Skills; Management Practices and Processes; Retail Industry
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      Kwon, Caleb, Ananth Raman, and Jorge Tamayo. "Human-Computer Interactions in Demand Forecasting and Labor Scheduling Decisions." Working Paper, December 2022. (R&R Management Science.)
      • December 2022 (Revised August 2023)
      • Case

      Ribbit Capital and the Gauntlet Investment Opportunity

      By: Shai Bernstein and Allison M. Ciechanover
      Ten-year-old, Palo Alto-based Ribbit Capital is best-known for its global investments in fintech. The firm was also an early advocate of crypto and blockchain, having invested in more than two dozen startups in the space in the past decade. In the Spring of 2022,... View Details
      Keywords: Alternative Assets; Cryptocurrency; Business Startups; Investment Portfolio; Decision Choices and Conditions; Negotiation Deal; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Venture Capital; Financial Services Industry; California
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      Bernstein, Shai, and Allison M. Ciechanover. "Ribbit Capital and the Gauntlet Investment Opportunity." Harvard Business School Case 823-038, December 2022. (Revised August 2023.)
      • December 2022
      • Article

      Two Representations of Information Structures and Their Comparisons

      By: Jerry R. Green and Nancy L. Stokey
      This paper compares two representations of informativeness. View Details
      Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Risk and Uncertainty; Information; Analysis
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      Green, Jerry R., and Nancy L. Stokey. "Two Representations of Information Structures and Their Comparisons." Decisions in Economics and Finance 45, no. 2 (December 2022): 541–547.
      • 2022
      • Article

      Which Explanation Should I Choose? A Function Approximation Perspective to Characterizing Post hoc Explanations

      By: Tessa Han, Suraj Srinivas and Himabindu Lakkaraju
      A critical problem in the field of post hoc explainability is the lack of a common foundational goal among methods. For example, some methods are motivated by function approximation, some by game theoretic notions, and some by obtaining clean visualizations. This... View Details
      Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Decision Choices and Conditions; Analytics and Data Science
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      Han, Tessa, Suraj Srinivas, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "Which Explanation Should I Choose? A Function Approximation Perspective to Characterizing Post hoc Explanations." Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS) (2022). (Best Paper Award, International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML) Workshop on Interpretable ML in Healthcare.)
      • November 2022
      • Technical Note

      Leader Action Orientations

      By: Ryan Raffaelli, Akshaya Varghese and Laura Weimer
      Leaders are responsible for planning and executing actions that advance organizational goals. As individuals gain career experience, they tend to develop and rely on implicit mental models that shape how they go about “getting things done.” Without knowing it, most... View Details
      Keywords: Leadership Development; Prejudice and Bias; Cognition and Thinking; Decision Making; Behavior
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      Raffaelli, Ryan, Akshaya Varghese, and Laura Weimer. "Leader Action Orientations." Harvard Business School Technical Note 423-050, November 2022.
      • November 2022
      • Case

      Wendy Estrella: Scaling Multiple Businesses

      By: Jeffrey J. Bussgang and Sarah Mehta
      Entrepreneur Wendy Estrella, a self-made, Latina millionaire based in Lawrence, Massachusetts, is attempting to simultaneously scale her law practice as well as her property management and development company. What path should she take for each and can she do it all,... View Details
      Keywords: Business Ventures; Change; Competency and Skills; Decision Making; Demographics; Entrepreneurship; Personal Development and Career; Legal Services Industry; Real Estate Industry; Massachusetts
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      Bussgang, Jeffrey J., and Sarah Mehta. "Wendy Estrella: Scaling Multiple Businesses." Harvard Business School Case 823-016, November 2022.
      • November 2022
      • Case

      Hiring with the Community in Saint Paul

      By: Mitchell B. Weiss and Sarah Mehta
      This case reviews Saint Paul Mayor Melvin Carter’s decision to involve the community in the process of hiring his cabinet members. Rather than relying on an executive recruiting firm or choosing cabinet heads from his own network, Carter recruited 100 community members... View Details
      Keywords: Community Engagement; Competency and Skills; Government and Politics; Human Resources; Government Administration; Recruitment; Selection and Staffing; Decision Making; Public Administration Industry; United States; Minnesota; Saint Paul
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      Weiss, Mitchell B., and Sarah Mehta. "Hiring with the Community in Saint Paul." Harvard Business School Case 823-074, November 2022.
      • 2022
      • White Paper

      The Options Multiplier: Decoding the CareerWise Youth Apprentice Journey

      By: Joseph B. Fuller, Rachel Lipson, Farah Mallah, Girish Pendse and Rachel Snyder
      As more Americans question the appeal of costly higher education programs, earn-and-learn models, like apprenticeship, are attracting increasing attention from policymakers and employers alike. While apprenticeship is widespread in many parts of Europe,... View Details
      Keywords: Apprenticeship; Higher Education; Training; Personal Development and Career; Cost vs Benefits; Success; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms
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      Fuller, Joseph B., Rachel Lipson, Farah Mallah, Girish Pendse, and Rachel Snyder. "The Options Multiplier: Decoding the CareerWise Youth Apprentice Journey." White Paper, Project on Workforce at Harvard, November 2022.
      • November 10, 2022
      • Article

      5 Ways Startups Can Prepare for a Recession

      By: Lou Shipley
      Startups face unique challenges during economic downturns. They typically aren’t yet profitable and so are reliant on outside funding—and therefore are especially exposed when macroeconomic conditions change. To make it through a recession, startup CEOs should hit the... View Details
      Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Organizational Culture; Sales; Customer Focus and Relationships; Decisions; Inflation and Deflation; Financial Crisis; Employee Relationship Management; Business Startups; Credit
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      Shipley, Lou. "5 Ways Startups Can Prepare for a Recession." Harvard Business Review Digital Articles (November 10, 2022).
      • November 2022 (Revised February 2024)
      • Exercise

      Managing Customer Retention at Teleko

      By: Eva Ascarza
      This exercise aims to teach students about 1) Targeting Policies; and 2) Algorithmic decision making, and 3) Retention management. View Details
      Keywords: Algorithmic Decision Making; Marketing Strategy; Customer Focus and Relationships
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      Ascarza, Eva. "Managing Customer Retention at Teleko." Harvard Business School Exercise 523-005, November 2022. (Revised February 2024.)
      • November 2022
      • Case

      Arcos Dorados’ Quest for the Digitalization of Last-Mile Delivery in Colombia

      By: Jorge Tamayo, Jenyfeer Martinez Buitrago and Mariana Cal
      In 2018, Francisco Staton, Managing Director of Arcos Dorados in Colombia had to decide on the company’s strategy to expand its food ordering and delivery business in the country. Arcos Dorados stood as McDonald’s largest independent franchisee, and Colombia was one of... View Details
      Keywords: Digital Transformation; Delivery; McDonald's; Latin America; Quick Serve Restaurants; QSR; Transformation; Decision Making; Decision Choices and Conditions; Global Strategy; Technological Innovation; Growth and Development Strategy; Agreements and Arrangements; Negotiation Tactics; Logistics; Service Delivery; Organizational Culture; Performance Improvement; Partners and Partnerships; Strategy; Food and Beverage Industry; Latin America; South America; Colombia
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      Tamayo, Jorge, Jenyfeer Martinez Buitrago, and Mariana Cal. "Arcos Dorados’ Quest for the Digitalization of Last-Mile Delivery in Colombia." Harvard Business School Case 723-395, November 2022.
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