Publications

2023
Working Paper

Algorithm Failures and Consumers' Response: Evidence from Zillow

By: Isamar Troncoso, Runshan Fu, Nikhil Malik and Davide Proserpio

In November 2021, Zillow announced the closure of its iBuyer business. Popular media largely attributed this to a failure of its proprietary forecasting algorithm. We study the response of consumers to Zillow’s iBuyer business closure. We show that after the iBuyer... View Details

Keywords: Algorithmic Pricing; Price; Forecasting and Prediction; Consumer Behavior; Real Estate Industry

SSRN

February 2000 (Revised June 2002)
Case

Development of the Internet in China (A), The: Challenges and Opportunities

Explores the development of the Internet in China. Starts with background information on China, the Internet, and several common Internet business models. Discusses regulatory and business obstacles to the growth of e-commerce in China. Finally, presents forecasts and... View Details

Keywords: Internet and the Web; Emerging Markets; Retail Industry; China

February 2006 (Revised August 2006)
Case

Kevin McCarthy and Westlake Chemical Corporation (A)

Examines forecasting earnings/performance for a commodity chemical firm during a period of high uncertainty, highlighting the combined effects of input process (natural gas), industry capacity/utilization, and cyclicality. Assuming the role of Kevin McCarthy (the top... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Futures and Commodity Futures; Forecasting and Prediction; Chemicals; Chemical Industry

April 2010 (Revised May 2017)
Case

Tremblant Capital Group

By: Robin Greenwood

Brett Barakett, CEO and founder of Tremblant Capital Group, a New York–based hedge fund, must decide what to do with his fund's position in Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, which has dropped in value by more than 40% in recent months. Tremblant is a hedge fund that... View Details

Keywords: Business Earnings; Behavioral Finance; Stocks; Investment Funds; Consumer Behavior; Competitive Advantage; Financial Services Industry; New York (city, NY)

TeachingInterests

Strategy - Building and Sustaining Competitive Advantage

By: Jan W. Rivkin

With the accelerating pace of competition, cutting-edge companies are defined by innovative strategies. In this Executive Education program, we explore how to develop groundbreaking stratgies and action plans for execution, forecast industry evolution, and analyze... View Details

Article

Can Mutual Fund Managers Pick Stocks? Evidence from Their Trades Prior to Earnings Announcements

By: Malcolm Baker, Lubomir Litov, Jessica Wachter and Jeffrey Wurgler

We consider measures of stock-picking skill of mutual fund managers based on the earnings announcement returns of the stocks that they hold and trade. Relative to standard approaches, this approach focuses on an especially informative subset of the returns data,... View Details

Keywords: Competency and Skills; Stocks; Investment Return; Investment Funds; Earnings Management

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Read Now

15 Sep 2015
First Look

September 15, 2015

Operations Management Analytics for an Online Retailer: Demand Forecasting and Price Optimization By: Ferreira, Kris J., Bin Hong Alex Lee, and David Simchi-Levi Abstract—We present our work with an online retailer, Rue La La, as an... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

April 1994 (Revised November 1998)
Case

Kendall Square Research Corporation (A)

By: William J. Bruns Jr.

Kendall Square Research was a small competitor in the supercomputer industry. As sales grew rapidly in 1992 and early 1993, the company sold stock to the public for the first time and analysts forecast higher earnings for 1993. However, when the company's revenue... View Details

Keywords: Revenue Recognition; Standards; Accounting Audits; Computer Industry

Lassiter argues that the world needs to get nuclear power back into the race against fossil fuels in order to avoid significant levels of CO2 emission-driven climate change. The world’s energy experts forecast that CO2 emissions will increase for the foreseeable... View Details

05 May 2022
HBS Seminar

Caleb Kwon, Harvard Business School

March 1980 (Revised February 1987)
Case

Sweco, Inc. (A)

By: Michael E. Porter and George S. Yip

Describes Sweco's decision about whether to enter the mud-processing equipment industry (used in oil well drilling). This is an internal entry decision, and the case describes Sweco's existing businesses as well as the mud-processing industry and competitors. The case... View Details

Keywords: Cost vs Benefits; Decisions; Forecasting and Prediction; Cost; Analytics and Data Science; Market Entry and Exit; Competition

07 Jul 2015
News

Harvard Business School Historian Wins Best Book Prize

Siyu Zhang

Siyu Zhang is a second-year doctoral student at HBS. Zhang joined Harvard Business School in 2020 as a Research Associate and has been working on macroeconomic forecasting projects. Prior to joining HBS, he was a Data Scientist at John Hancock, where he utilized... View Details

16 Oct 2019
Working Paper Summaries

Core Earnings? New Data and Evidence

Keywords: by Ethan Rouen, Eric So, and Charles C.Y. Wang

August 2024
Case

The Walt Disney Company: Management Guidance

By: Joseph Pacelli and James Weber

In November 2023, financial analyst Aurora Fee was forecasting The Walt Disney Company’s earnings and stock price, with the goal of providing an investment recommendation to her clients. Disney, one of the world’s largest media and entertainment companies, had just... View Details

Keywords: Valuation; Accounting; Investment; Communication; Forecasting and Prediction; Business Earnings; Growth and Development Strategy; Financial Services Industry; Entertainment and Recreation Industry; United States

Article

Complementarity between Audited Financial Reporting and Voluntary Disclosure: The Case of Former Andersen Clients

By: Richard Frankel, Alon Kalay, Gil Sadka and Yuan Zou

Prior literature presents various perspectives on the role of financial reporting. One view is that mandatory periodic reporting disciplines managers and encourages timely voluntary disclosure. We examine this "confirmation hypothesis" using the shock to financial... View Details

Keywords: Financial Disclosure; Mandatory Reporting; Reliability; Voluntary Disclosure; Financial Reporting; Quality; Corporate Disclosure

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November 2006 (Revised March 2008)
Case

Kendall Square Research Corporation

By: F. Warren McFarlan

Kendall Square Research was a small competitor in the supercomputer industry. Sales grew rapidly in 1992 and early 1993 and the company sold stock to the public for the first time. Analysts forecast higher earnings for 1993, then the company's revenue recognition... View Details

Keywords: Revenue Recognition; Standards; Accounting Audits; Computer Industry

April 1999 (Revised March 2001)
Case

Be Our Guest, Inc.

By: Dwight B. Crane and Penny Joseph

Be Our Guest is a rapidly growing equipment rental company with substantial seasonality in its revenues and profits. In the spring of 1998, the senior management team is reviewing its financial plans in preparation for a meeting with the company's bank. The case... View Details

Keywords: Financial Strategy; Borrowing and Debt; Banks and Banking; Revenue; Management Teams; Business Plan; Forecasting and Prediction; Utilities Industry; Service Industry

March 2005 (Revised March 2006)
Background Note

Activity-Based Costing and Capacity

By: Robert S. Kaplan

Discusses the use of budgeted rather than historical data in an activity-based costing (ABC) model and argues for calculating rates using practical capacity, not actual utilization. An ABC model need not be limited to analysis of historical data. When cost driver rates... View Details

Keywords: Activity Based Costing and Management; Accounting Industry