Forecasting and Prediction - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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2013
Article

Nations' Income Inequality Predicts Ambivalence in Stereotype Content: How Societies Mind the Gap

By: Federica Durante, S. T. Fiske, Nicolas Kervyn and Amy J.C. Cuddy

Income inequality undermines societies: the more inequality, the more health problems, social tensions, and the lower social mobility, trust, and life expectancy. Given people's tendency to legitimate existing social arrangements, the Stereotype Content Model (SCM)... View Details

Keywords: Stereotypes; Cross-cultural/cross-border; Inequality; Prejudice and Bias; Equality and Inequality; Income; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Power and Influence

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2018
Working Paper

Algorithm Appreciation: People Prefer Algorithmic to Human Judgment

By: Jennifer M. Logg, Julia A. Minson and Don A. Moore

Even though computational algorithms often outperform human judgment, received wisdom suggests that people may be skeptical of relying on them (Dawes, 1979). Counter to this notion, results from six experiments show that lay people adhere more to advice when they think... View Details

Keywords: Algorithms; Accuracy; Advice Taking; Forecasting; Theory Of Machine; Mathematical Methods; Decision Making; Forecasting and Prediction; Trust

April 2010
Case

Jones Electrical Distribution

By: Thomas R. Piper and Jeffrey DeVolder

Jones Electrical Distribution is faced with a need for increased bank financing due to its rapid sales growth. Students must determine the reasons for the rising bank borrowing, estimate the amount of borrowing needed and assess the attractiveness of the loan to the... View Details

Keywords: Financial Analysis; Forecasting; Financing; Bank Loans; Growth Management; Cash Flow; Financing and Loans; Forecasting and Prediction; Distribution Industry

Article

Valuing Time Over Money Predicts Happiness After a Major Life Transition: A Preregistered Longitudinal Study of Graduating Students

By: A.V. Whillans, Lucia Macchia and Elizabeth Dunn

How does prioritizing time or money shape major life decisions and subsequent well-being? In a preregistered longitudinal study of approximately 1000 graduating university students, respondents who valued time over money chose more intrinsically rewarding activities... View Details

Keywords: Time Use; Trade-offs; Career Decisions; Time Management; Money; Happiness; Values and Beliefs; Personal Development and Career

2022
Working Paper

TalkToModel: Explaining Machine Learning Models with Interactive Natural Language Conversations

By: Dylan Slack, Satyapriya Krishna, Himabindu Lakkaraju and Sameer Singh

Practitioners increasingly use machine learning (ML) models, yet they have become more complex and harder to understand. To address this issue, researchers have proposed techniques to explain model predictions. However, practitioners struggle to use explainability... View Details

Keywords: Natural Language Conversations; Predictive Models; AI and Machine Learning

2016
Working Paper

Paying for the Truth: The Efficacy of a Peer Prediction Mechanism in the Field

By: Natalia Rigol and Benjamin N. Roth

October 2014 (Revised August 2018)
Case

Caesars Entertainment

By: Janice H. Hammond and Aldo Sesia

This case describes the introduction of a regression analysis model for forecasting guest arrivals to Caesars Palace hotel in Las Vegas, Nevada. The company will use the forecast to staff the front desk in the hotel. The staff is unionized and the company has little... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting; Staffing; Gaming; Gaming Industry; Hotel Industry; Decision Making; Forecasting and Prediction; Human Resources; Selection and Staffing; Entertainment; Games, Gaming, and Gambling; Operations; Service Delivery; Service Operations; Food and Beverage Industry; Food and Beverage Industry; Food and Beverage Industry; Food and Beverage Industry; Las Vegas

September 1998
Article

Predicting How People Play Games: Reinforcement Learning in Experimental Games with Unique, Mixed Strategy Equilibria

By: Ido Erev and A. E. Roth

Keywords: Games, Gaming, and Gambling; Forecasting and Prediction; Learning; Strategy

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September 2010
Case

New Heritage Doll Company

By: Timothy A. Luehrman and Heide Abelli

A manufacturer and retailer of specialty doll products must decide which of two projects to fund. The decision requires the student to compute cash flows for the 2 projects, discount values to the present and compare and contrast different project performance measures. View Details

Keywords: Forecasting; Resource Management; Resource Allocation; Forecasting and Prediction; Capital Budgeting; Manufacturing Industry; Consumer Products Industry; Retail Industry

August 2010
Supplement

Flash Memory, Inc., Faculty Spreadsheet Supplement (Brief Case)

By: William E. Fruhan Jr. and Craig Stephenson

Keywords: Forecasting; Cash Flow; Forecasting and Prediction; Capital Budgeting

1998
Book

Do Lunch or Be Lunch: The Power of Predictability in Creating Your Future

By: H. H. Stevenson and Jeffrey L. Cruikshank

Keywords: Personal Development and Career

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June 2019
Supplement

Improving Worker Safety in the Era of Machine Learning: Practicum in Predictive Analytics

By: Michael W. Toffel and Dan Levy

11 Dec 2017
Working Paper Summaries

The Use and Misuse of Patent Data: Issues for Corporate Finance and Beyond

Keywords: by Josh Lerner and Amit Seru

October 2014
Case

Honeywell and the Great Recession (A)

By: Sandra J. Sucher and Susan J. Winterberg

CEO Dave Cote spent six years turning around an ailing Honeywell and in 2008 Cote and his team face a new challenge: how to respond to the Great Recession. Cote does not want to give up the gains he made in transforming and unifying Honeywell. With a fall-off in... View Details

Keywords: Layoffs; Furloughs; Downsizing; Work Sharing; Short Time Work; Recessions; Earnings Forecast; Job Cuts and Outsourcing; Cost Management; Executive Compensation; Crisis Management; Financial Crisis; Manufacturing Industry

2021
Working Paper

When Does Uncertainty Matter?: Understanding the Impact of Predictive Uncertainty in ML Assisted Decision Making

By: Sean McGrath, Parth Mehta, Alexandra Zytek, Isaac Lage and Himabindu Lakkaraju

16 Oct 2019
Working Paper Summaries

Core Earnings? New Data and Evidence

Keywords: by Ethan Rouen, Eric So, and Charles C.Y. Wang

December 2003 (Revised February 2008)
Background Note

Law and Legal Reasoning: An Introduction

By: Henry B. Reiling

Gives prominence to Mr. Justice Holmes' Prediction Theory of the law as a practical--and by analogy to forecasting in finance and other functional areas of business--comfortable, and familiar way for businesspeople to think about the law. Law is defined as a forecast... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Law; Theory

June 2010 (Revised July 2011)
Case

Classic Knitwear and Guardian: A Perfect Fit?

By: John A. Quelch and Patricia Girardi

Classic Knitwear manufactures and distributes casual apparel, either unbranded or under a private-label brand name. Partly because Classic has no brand recognition with consumers, gross margins are low. To improve margins, the company considers partnering via a... View Details

Keywords: Market Research; Forecasting; Consumer Marketing; New Product Marketing; Product Lines; Merchandising; Branding; Demand and Consumers; Partners and Partnerships; Marketing Strategy; Forecasting and Prediction; Product Marketing; Brands and Branding; Product Development; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Apparel and Accessories Industry

September 2010
Teaching Note

New Heritage Doll Company (Brief Case)

By: Timothy A. Luehrman and Heide Abelli

Teaching Note for 4212. View Details

Keywords: Forecasting; Resource Management; Resource Allocation; Forecasting and Prediction; Capital Budgeting

June 2009 (Revised March 2010)
Supplement

Hansson Private Label, Inc.: Evaluating an Investment in Expansion, Student Spreadsheet (Brief Case)

By: Erik Stafford and Joel L. Heilprin

Keywords: Present Value; Forecasting; Expansion; Valuation; Forecasting and Prediction; Capital Budgeting

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