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Article

Experience Theory, or How Desserts Are Like Losses

By: Jolie M. Martin, Martin Reimann and Michael I. Norton

While many experiments have explored risk preferences for money, few have systematically assessed risk preferences for everyday experiences. We propose a conceptual model and provide convergent evidence from seven experiments that, in contrast to a typical “zero”... View Details

Keywords: Experiences; Monetary Gambles; Risk Preferences; Experience Theory; Risk and Uncertainty; Behavior; Decision Choices and Conditions

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October 2016
Case

Elon Musk: Balancing Purpose and Risk

By: Shikhar Ghosh and Sarah Mehta

The case is used to illustrate the place of ‘Purpose’ versus financial risk and returns in a founder’s objectives. It also addresses personal risk profile of different founders, and when paired with the Risk Tolerance Exercise, it enables evaluating one’s own appetite... View Details

Keywords: Electric Vehicle; Solar Power; Vision; Trade-offs; Leadership; Mission and Purpose; Risk and Uncertainty; Entrepreneurship; Failure; United States; North America

October 2016
Case

Moshe Kahlon: Telecommunications Reform and Competition in Israel's Cellular Market (A)

By: Joshua Margolis, Amram Migdal and Kerry Herman

The case addresses reforms to regulations in Israel’s telecommunications industry initiated and implemented under the leadership of Minister of Communications Moshe Kahlon in 2009-2010. The case highlights the challenges faced by a politician attempting to institute... View Details

October 2016
Supplement

Moshe Kahlon: Telecommunications Reform and Competition in Israel's Cellular Market (B)

By: Joshua Margolis, Amram Migdal and Kerry Herman

The case complements “Moshe Kahlon: Telecommunications Reform and Competition in Israel’s Cellular Market (A),” HBS case number 417-017, which addresses reforms to regulations in Israel’s telecommunications industry initiated and implemented under the leadership of... View Details

October 2016 (Revised October 2017)
Case

Going Rogue: Choson Exchange in North Korea

By: Sophus A. Reinert, Dawn H. Lau and Amy MacBeath

In mid-2015, the Singapore-based CEO of Choson Exchange Geoffrey See pondered his next move. He had founded Choson Exchange as a non-profit in 2009 to further female entrepreneurship in North Korea by providing business and legal training in the isolated country. Now,... View Details

Keywords: Entrepreneurship; For-Profit Firms; Risk and Uncertainty; Opportunities; North Korea

2017
Working Paper

Self-Employment Dynamics and the Returns to Entrepreneurship

By: Eleanor W. Dillon and Christopher T. Stanton

Small business owners and others in self-employment have the option to transition to paid work. If there is initial uncertainty about entrepreneurial earnings, this option increases the expected lifetime value of self-employment relative to pay in a single year. This... View Details

Keywords: Self-employed; Small Business; Business Earnings; Entrepreneurship; Ownership; Compensation and Benefits

September 2016
Case

Generali: Paving the Way for CEE Expansion

By: Dante Roscini and Emer Maloney

Generali was one of Italy’s largest companies and one of Europe’s largest insurers and had for decades been at the center of the web of cross-shareholding that has characterized the opaque brand of old Italian capitalism. This bred sub-par returns while serving to... View Details

Keywords: Joint Ventures; Transformation; Insurance; Emerging Markets; Negotiation Deal; Business and Shareholder Relations; Expansion; Business Strategy; Insurance Industry; Italy; Europe

2018
Working Paper

Bank Risk-Taking and the Real Economy: Evidence from the Housing Boom and Its Aftermath

By: Antonio Falato, Giovanni Favara and David Scharfstein

The short-termism of lenders amplifies boom-bust credit cycles, leading in turn to real costs for the aggregate economy. During the U.S. housing credit boom, publicly-traded banks increased mortgage lending activity and relaxed standards much more than privately-held... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Financial Markets; Investment; Corporate Finance; Banks and Banking

2016
Working Paper

The Stock Market and Bank Risk-Taking

By: David S. Scharfstein and Antonio Falato

We argue that stock market pressure to generate earnings encourages banks to increase risk. We measure risk using confidential supervisory ratings as well as financial information released in regulatory filings. We document that there is an increase in the risk-taking... View Details

Keywords: Stock Market; Financial Markets; Business Earnings; Banks and Banking; Risk and Uncertainty

August 2016 (Revised July 2017)
Case

Diageo and Mey Icki: Turkish Delight or Turkish Hangover?

By: Dante Roscini and Gamze Yucaoglu

In September 2013, two years after its $2.1 billion acquisition of Mey Icki Sanayi ve Ticaret AS (Mey Icki), the principal spirits company in Turkey specializing in the local beverage, raki, Diageo, the world’s leading premium drinks company, was concerned about new... View Details

Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment; Emerging Markets; Government Legislation; Taxation; Valuation; Business and Government Relations; Government and Politics; Risk Management; Retail Industry; Food and Beverage Industry; Middle East; Turkey

Article

Can Analysts Assess Fundamental Risk and Valuation Uncertainty? An Empirical Analysis of Scenario-Based Value Estimates

By: Peter R. Joos, Joseph D. Piotroski and Suraj Srinivasan

We use a dataset of sell-side analysts' scenario-based valuation estimates to examine whether analysts reliably assess the risk surrounding a firm's fundamental value. We find that the spread in analysts' state-side contingent valuations captures the riskiness of... View Details

Keywords: Analyst Forecasts; Scenarios; Uncertainty; Risk and Uncertainty; Valuation; Forecasting and Prediction

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2019
Working Paper

Improving Working Conditions in Global Supply Chains: The Role of Institutional Environments and Monitoring Program Design

By: Jodi L. Short, Michael W. Toffel and Andrea R. Hugill

Activism seeking to improve labor conditions in global supply chains has led transnational corporations to adopt codes of conduct and monitor suppliers for compliance, but it is unclear whether these formal organizational structures raise labor standards. Drawing on... View Details

June 24, 2016
Other Article

Why Brexit Is a Big Deal

By: John A. Quelch

The consequences of yesterday's vote by the British people to leave the European Union will be far-reaching, but there is no reason for global markets to panic.
Brexit is a vote against the European Union. Once heralded as the engine of a one-for-all and... View Details

June 2016
Article

Local Currency Sovereign Risk

By: Wenxin Du and Jesse Schreger

We introduce a new measure of emerging market sovereign credit risk: the local currency credit spread, defined as the spread of local currency bonds over the synthetic local currency risk-free rate constructed using cross-currency swaps. We find that local currency... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Sovereign Finance; Currency; Emerging Markets

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2016
Blog

Building A Culture of Health - John A. Quelch: Creating A Culture of Health

By: John A. Quelch

All American companies are in the health business whether they like it or not. The private sector directly pays for one-fifth of the whopping 17.5% of GDP spent on healthcare in the United States. Rather than viewing health merely as an insurance expense to be... View Details

May 24, 2016
Article

Build a Culture of Health

By: John A. Quelch

Every company, large and small, has an impact on health. It does so in four ways: first, through the healthfulness and safety of the products and services it sells; second, through its attention to employee health and well-being in its work practices and benefits;... View Details

May 20, 2016
Comment

World Health Organization Lacks Leadership to Combat Pandemics

By: John A. Quelch

When it comes to emergency preparedness for pandemics, the World Health Organization is falling short. It has not provided prompt and clear leadership to the world in combating either the Ebola or Zika viruses. Its leadership has been low energy, its representatives... View Details

April 21, 2016
Article

Warren Buffett’s Risky Final Bet

By: Josh Baron and Rob Lachenauer

Keywords: Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Philanthropy and Charitable Giving; Risk and Uncertainty; Leadership

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Article

Beyond Statistics: The Economic Content of Risk Scores

By: Liran Einav, Amy Finkelstein, Raymond Kluender and Paul Schrimpf

"Big data" and statistical techniques to score potential transactions have transformed insurance and credit markets. In this paper, we observe that these widely-used statistical scores summarize a much richer heterogeneity, and may be endogenous to the context in which... View Details

Keywords: Analytics and Data Science; Risk and Uncertainty; Insurance Industry

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April 2016 (Revised December 2019)
Case

Dan Gilbert: Crazy or Crazy Like a Fox?

By: Nori Gerardo Lietz

Keywords: Detroit; Rock Ventures; Dan Gilbert; Real Estate; Buildings and Facilities; Demographics; Financial Crisis; Government and Politics; Housing; Risk and Uncertainty; Real Estate Industry; United States

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