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(3,383)
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- Faculty Publications (1,610)
Show Results For
- All HBS Web
(3,383)
- News (517)
- Research (2,489)
- Events (43)
- Multimedia (18)
- Faculty Publications (1,610)
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- Article
Scenario Generation for Long Run Interest Rate Risk Assessment
By: Robert F. Engle, Guillaume Roussellet and Emil N. Siriwardane
We propose a statistical model of the term structure of U.S. treasury yields tailored for long-term probability-based scenario generation and forecasts. Our model is easy to estimate and is able to simultaneously reproduce the positivity, persistence, and factor... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting; Stress Testing; Interest Rates; Forecasting and Prediction; Risk Management; United States
Engle, Robert F., Guillaume Roussellet, and Emil N. Siriwardane. "Scenario Generation for Long Run Interest Rate Risk Assessment." Special Issue on Theoretical and Financial Econometrics: Essays in Honor of C. Gourieroux. Journal of Econometrics 201, no. 2 (December 2017): 333–347.
- 31 May 2023
- Research & Ideas
With Predictive Analytics, Companies Can Tap the Ultimate Opportunity: Customers’ Routines
used that information to predict how often and when a customer may request a car as part of their routine. The model could drill into specific kinds of routines, too: The model identifies seven clusters of... View Details
- September 2017
- Article
The Belief in a Favorable Future
By: Todd Rogers, Don A. Moore and Michael I. Norton
People believe that future others’ preferences and beliefs will change to align with their own. People holding a particular view (e.g., support of President Trump) are more likely to believe that future others will share their view than to believe that future others... View Details
Keywords: Social Cognition; Judgment; Prediction; Forecasting; False Consensus; Donation; Open Data; Open Materials; Preregistered; Forecasting and Prediction; Perception; Values and Beliefs; Behavior
Rogers, Todd, Don A. Moore, and Michael I. Norton. "The Belief in a Favorable Future." Psychological Science 28, no. 9 (September 2017): 1290–1301.
- August 2010
- Case
Flash Memory, Inc.
By: William E. Fruhan and Craig Stephenson
The CFO of Flash Memory, Inc. prepares the company's investing and financing plans for the next three years. Flash Memory is a small firm that specializes in the design and manufacture of solid state drives (SSDs) and memory modules for the computer and electronics... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting; Financial Management; Cash Flow; Forecasting and Prediction; Capital Budgeting; Computer Industry; Electronics Industry; United States
Fruhan, William E., and Craig Stephenson. "Flash Memory, Inc." Harvard Business School Brief Case 104-230, August 2010.
- August 2010
- Teaching Note
Flash Memory, Inc. (Brief Case)
By: William E. Fruhan Jr. and Craig Stephenson
Teaching Note for 4230. View Details
- October 2014
- Supplement
Honeywell and the Great Recession: The Economic Recovery (B)
By: Sandra J. Sucher and Susan J. Winterberg
Five years after the Great Recession, Honeywell's CEO Dave Cote and his executive team reflect on the choices they made to manage costs and earnings forecasts during that uncertain time. They discuss which cost cutting measures they decided to take and their personal... View Details
Keywords: Layoffs; Furloughs; Downsizing; Work Sharing; Short Time Work; Recessions; Earnings Forecast; Job Cuts and Outsourcing; Cost Management; Executive Compensation; Crisis Management; Financial Crisis; Manufacturing Industry
Sucher, Sandra J., and Susan J. Winterberg. "Honeywell and the Great Recession: The Economic Recovery (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 315-023, October 2014.
- 2013
- Article
Where Not to Eat? Improving Public Policy by Predicting Hygiene Inspections Using Online Reviews
By: Jun Seok Kang, Polina Kuznetsova, Yejin Choi and Michael Luca
Restaurant hygiene inspections are often cited as a success story of public disclosure. Hygiene grades influence customer decisions and serve as an accountability system for restaurants. However, cities (which are responsible for inspections) have limited resources to... View Details
Keywords: Safety; Food; Governance Compliance; Mathematical Methods; Applications and Software; Food and Beverage Industry; Food and Beverage Industry; Food and Beverage Industry
Kang, Jun Seok, Polina Kuznetsova, Yejin Choi, and Michael Luca. "Where Not to Eat? Improving Public Policy by Predicting Hygiene Inspections Using Online Reviews." Proceedings of the Conference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing (2013): 1443–1448.
- July 2024 (Revised September 2024)
- Case
Shell’s Balancing Act: Resource Allocation and the Green Transition (Abridged)
By: David Collis and Haisley Wert
In mid-2023, amid pressure from climate change activists, shareholder activists, and confronting enormous uncertainty about the future demand for and price of fossil fuels, new Shell CEO Wael Sawan (Harvard MBA 2003) announced a change in strategy for the U.K. oil... View Details
- May 2012
- Article
Adding Bricks to Clicks: Predicting the Patterns of Cross-Channel Elasticities over Time
By: Jill Avery, Thomas J. Steenburgh, John Deighton and Mary Caravella
The authors propose a conceptual framework to explain whether and when the introduction of a new retail store channel helps or hurts sales in existing direct channels. A conceptual framework separates short- and long-term effects by analyzing the capabilities of a... View Details
Keywords: Marketing; Channels; Channels Of Distribution; Distribution; Retailing; Channel Management; Channel Migration; Multichannel Retailing; Framework; Customers; Marketing Channels; Sales; Internet and the Web; Demand and Consumers; Competency and Skills; Distribution Channels; E-commerce; Retail Industry; United States
Avery, Jill, Thomas J. Steenburgh, John Deighton, and Mary Caravella. "Adding Bricks to Clicks: Predicting the Patterns of Cross-Channel Elasticities over Time." Journal of Marketing 76, no. 3 (May 2012): 96–111.
- 2004
- Book
Seeing What's Next: Using the Theories of Innovation to Predict Industry Change
By: C. M. Christensen, Scott D. Anthony and Erik A Roth
Christensen, C. M., Scott D. Anthony, and Erik A Roth. Seeing What's Next: Using the Theories of Innovation to Predict Industry Change. Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 2004.
- June 2019
- Supplement
Improving Worker Safety in the Era of Machine Learning: Practicum in Predictive Analytics
By: Michael W. Toffel and Dan Levy
- Article
Sadness, Identity, and Plastic in Over-shopping: The Interplay of Materialism, Poor Credit Management, and Emotional Buying Motives in Predicting Compulsive Buying
By: Grant Edward Donnelly, Masha Ksendzova and Ryan Howell
A comprehensive study is currently lacking to explain why material values strongly influence compulsive buying. The goal of the current study is to test if money management, buying motivations for improving mood and identity, and self-transformation expectations... View Details
Donnelly, Grant Edward, Masha Ksendzova, and Ryan Howell. "Sadness, Identity, and Plastic in Over-shopping: The Interplay of Materialism, Poor Credit Management, and Emotional Buying Motives in Predicting Compulsive Buying." Journal of Economic Psychology 39 (December 2013): 113–125.
- 2018
- Working Paper
Algorithm Appreciation: People Prefer Algorithmic to Human Judgment
By: Jennifer M. Logg, Julia A. Minson and Don A. Moore
Even though computational algorithms often outperform human judgment, received wisdom suggests that people may be skeptical of relying on them (Dawes, 1979). Counter to this notion, results from six experiments show that lay people adhere more to advice when they think... View Details
Keywords: Algorithms; Accuracy; Advice Taking; Forecasting; Theory Of Machine; Mathematical Methods; Decision Making; Forecasting and Prediction; Trust
Logg, Jennifer M., Julia A. Minson, and Don A. Moore. "Algorithm Appreciation: People Prefer Algorithmic to Human Judgment." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 17-086, March 2017. (Revised April 2018.)
- 09 Jun 2020
- Working Paper Summaries
Aggregate and Firm-Level Stock Returns During Pandemics, in Real Time
- April 2010
- Case
Jones Electrical Distribution
By: Thomas R. Piper and Jeffrey DeVolder
Jones Electrical Distribution is faced with a need for increased bank financing due to its rapid sales growth. Students must determine the reasons for the rising bank borrowing, estimate the amount of borrowing needed and assess the attractiveness of the loan to the... View Details
Keywords: Financial Analysis; Forecasting; Financing; Bank Loans; Growth Management; Cash Flow; Financing and Loans; Forecasting and Prediction; Distribution Industry
Piper, Thomas R., and Jeffrey DeVolder. "Jones Electrical Distribution." Harvard Business School Brief Case 104-179, April 2010.
- Article
The Selective Labels Problem: Evaluating Algorithmic Predictions in the Presence of Unobservables
By: Himabindu Lakkaraju, Jon Kleinberg, Jure Leskovec, Jens Ludwig and Sendhil Mullainathan
Lakkaraju, Himabindu, Jon Kleinberg, Jure Leskovec, Jens Ludwig, and Sendhil Mullainathan. "The Selective Labels Problem: Evaluating Algorithmic Predictions in the Presence of Unobservables." Proceedings of the ACM SIGKDD Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining 23rd (2017).
- Article
Common Variants of the Oxytocin Receptor Gene Do Not Predict the Positive Mood Benefits of Prosocial Spending
By: Ashley V. Whillans, Lara B. Aknin, Colin Ross, Lihan Chen and Frances S. Chen
Who benefits most from helping others? Previous research suggests that common polymorphisms of the oxytocin receptor gene (OXTR) predict whether people behave generously and experience increases in positive mood in response to socially-focused experiences in daily... View Details
Keywords: Prosocial Behavior; Positivity; Behavior Genetics; Individual Differences; Behavior; Emotions; Genetics; Spending
Whillans, Ashley V., Lara B. Aknin, Colin Ross, Lihan Chen, and Frances S. Chen. "Common Variants of the Oxytocin Receptor Gene Do Not Predict the Positive Mood Benefits of Prosocial Spending." Emotion 20, no. 5 (August 2020): 734–749.
- October 2014 (Revised August 2018)
- Case
Caesars Entertainment
By: Janice H. Hammond and Aldo Sesia
This case describes the introduction of a regression analysis model for forecasting guest arrivals to Caesars Palace hotel in Las Vegas, Nevada. The company will use the forecast to staff the front desk in the hotel. The staff is unionized and the company has little... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting; Staffing; Gaming; Gaming Industry; Hotel Industry; Decision Making; Forecasting and Prediction; Human Resources; Selection and Staffing; Entertainment; Games, Gaming, and Gambling; Operations; Service Delivery; Service Operations; Food and Beverage Industry; Food and Beverage Industry; Food and Beverage Industry; Food and Beverage Industry; Las Vegas
Hammond, Janice H., and Aldo Sesia. "Caesars Entertainment." Harvard Business School Case 615-031, October 2014. (Revised August 2018.)
- 2013
- Article
Nations' Income Inequality Predicts Ambivalence in Stereotype Content: How Societies Mind the Gap
By: Federica Durante, S. T. Fiske, Nicolas Kervyn and Amy J.C. Cuddy
Income inequality undermines societies: the more inequality, the more health problems, social tensions, and the lower social mobility, trust, and life expectancy. Given people's tendency to legitimate existing social arrangements, the Stereotype Content Model (SCM)... View Details
Keywords: Stereotypes; Cross-cultural/cross-border; Inequality; Prejudice and Bias; Equality and Inequality; Income; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Power and Influence
Durante, Federica, S. T. Fiske, Nicolas Kervyn, and Amy J.C. Cuddy. "Nations' Income Inequality Predicts Ambivalence in Stereotype Content: How Societies Mind the Gap." British Journal of Social Psychology 52, no. 4 (December 2013): 726–746.