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  • All HBS Web  (1,294)
    • News  (115)
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  • 2007
  • Working Paper

Irving Fisher, Economic Forecasting, and the Myth of the Business Cycle

By: Walter A. Friedman
A premier economist of the twentieth century and a founder of neoclassical thought, Irving Fisher was also an active participant in the field of economic forecasting. Fisher made theoretical contributions to the understanding of economic fluctuations, popularized the... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Economics; Business Cycles; Business History; Newspapers; Personal Development and Career
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Friedman, Walter A. "Irving Fisher, Economic Forecasting, and the Myth of the Business Cycle." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 08-037, November 2007.
  • January 2008
  • Background Note

Equity Options

By: Joshua Coval and Erik Stafford
The goal of this simulation is to understand the reliance of option values on volatility. When an investor trades an option, they are essentially trading volatility. Therefore, much of the focus in this lesson is on forecasting volatility. Students are able to use two... View Details
Keywords: Volatility; Forecasting and Prediction; Stock Options; Investment Return; Price; Market Transactions; Mathematical Methods; Value
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Coval, Joshua, and Erik Stafford. "Equity Options." Harvard Business School Background Note 208-118, January 2008.
  • July 2007 (Revised November 2007)
  • Case

Leasing Computers at Persistent Learning

Newly public Persistent Learning is acquiring vital computer assets. They need to determine how the lease or purchase decision will impact their financial statements, and how the market will react given previously forecast earnings and competitor's accounting. View Details
Keywords: Information Infrastructure; Financial Statements; Leasing
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Shanthikumar, Devin M. "Leasing Computers at Persistent Learning." Harvard Business School Case 108-014, July 2007. (Revised November 2007.)
  • 2023
  • Working Paper

The Optimal Stock Valuation Ratio

By: Sebastian Hillenbrand and Odhrain McCarthy
Trailing price ratios, such as the price-dividend and the price-earnings ratio, scale prices by trailing cash flow measures. They theoretically contain expected returns, yet, their performance in predicting stock market returns is poor. This is because of an omitted... View Details
Keywords: Price; Investment Return; AI and Machine Learning; Valuation; Cash Flow; Forecasting and Prediction
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Hillenbrand, Sebastian, and Odhrain McCarthy. "The Optimal Stock Valuation Ratio." Working Paper, November 2023.
  • April 1994 (Revised November 1998)
  • Case

Kendall Square Research Corporation (A)

By: William J. Bruns Jr.
Kendall Square Research was a small competitor in the supercomputer industry. As sales grew rapidly in 1992 and early 1993, the company sold stock to the public for the first time and analysts forecast higher earnings for 1993. However, when the company's revenue... View Details
Keywords: Revenue Recognition; Standards; Accounting Audits; Computer Industry
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Bruns, William J., Jr. "Kendall Square Research Corporation (A)." Harvard Business School Case 194-068, April 1994. (Revised November 1998.)
  • March 1980 (Revised February 1987)
  • Case

Sweco, Inc. (A)

By: Michael E. Porter and George S. Yip
Describes Sweco's decision about whether to enter the mud-processing equipment industry (used in oil well drilling). This is an internal entry decision, and the case describes Sweco's existing businesses as well as the mud-processing industry and competitors. The case... View Details
Keywords: Cost vs Benefits; Decisions; Forecasting and Prediction; Cost; Analytics and Data Science; Market Entry and Exit; Competition
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Porter, Michael E., and George S. Yip. "Sweco, Inc. (A)." Harvard Business School Case 380-167, March 1980. (Revised February 1987.)
  • 09 Jun 2020
  • Working Paper Summaries

Aggregate and Firm-Level Stock Returns During Pandemics, in Real Time

Keywords: by Laura Alfaro, Anusha Chari, Andrew Greenland, and Peter K. Schott
  • 15 Sep 2015
  • First Look

September 15, 2015

Operations Management Analytics for an Online Retailer: Demand Forecasting and Price Optimization By: Ferreira, Kris J., Bin Hong Alex Lee, and David Simchi-Levi Abstract—We present our work with an online retailer, Rue La La, as an... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 2023
  • Working Paper

Algorithm Failures and Consumers' Response: Evidence from Zillow

By: Isamar Troncoso, Runshan Fu, Nikhil Malik and Davide Proserpio
In November 2021, Zillow announced the closure of its iBuyer business. Popular media largely attributed this to a failure of its proprietary forecasting algorithm. We study the response of consumers to Zillow’s iBuyer business closure. We show that after the iBuyer... View Details
Keywords: Algorithmic Pricing; Price; Forecasting and Prediction; Consumer Behavior; Real Estate Industry
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Troncoso, Isamar, Runshan Fu, Nikhil Malik, and Davide Proserpio. "Algorithm Failures and Consumers' Response: Evidence from Zillow." Working Paper, July 2023.
  • April 2002 (Revised July 2002)
  • Case

Imagicast

By: John T. Gourville and Alison Berkley Wagonfeld
Imagicast has brought to market an interactive, multimedia retail kiosk designed to increase product sales. In spite of promising projections by industry analysts and detailed demand forecasts by Imagicast management, the company has yet to sell a single kiosk. Time... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Crisis Management; Product Launch; Demand and Consumers; Sales; Technology; Retail Industry; United States
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Gourville, John T., and Alison Berkley Wagonfeld. "Imagicast." Harvard Business School Case 502-052, April 2002. (Revised July 2002.)
  • Article

Complementarity between Audited Financial Reporting and Voluntary Disclosure: The Case of Former Andersen Clients

By: Richard Frankel, Alon Kalay, Gil Sadka and Yuan Zou
Prior literature presents various perspectives on the role of financial reporting. One view is that mandatory periodic reporting disciplines managers and encourages timely voluntary disclosure. We examine this "confirmation hypothesis" using the shock to financial... View Details
Keywords: Financial Disclosure; Mandatory Reporting; Reliability; Voluntary Disclosure; Financial Reporting; Quality; Corporate Disclosure
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Frankel, Richard, Alon Kalay, Gil Sadka, and Yuan Zou. "Complementarity between Audited Financial Reporting and Voluntary Disclosure: The Case of Former Andersen Clients." Accounting Review 96, no. 6 (November 2021): 215–238.
  • October 1994 (Revised January 1997)
  • Case

Nestle Refrigerated Foods: Contadina Pasta and Pizza (A)

By: V. Kasturi Rangan and Marie Bell
Nestle Co.'s Refrigerated Foods Division has very successfully launched its Contadina brand pasta and sauces. The new product has achieved nearly $100 million in sales in three years. The division now considers an extension into the pizza line. This case provides a... View Details
Keywords: Business Divisions; Forecasting and Prediction; Marketing Strategy; Product Launch; Sales; Commercialization; Consumer Products Industry; Food and Beverage Industry
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Rangan, V. Kasturi, and Marie Bell. "Nestle Refrigerated Foods: Contadina Pasta and Pizza (A)." Harvard Business School Case 595-035, October 1994. (Revised January 1997.)
  • February 2000 (Revised June 2002)
  • Case

Development of the Internet in China (A), The: Challenges and Opportunities

Explores the development of the Internet in China. Starts with background information on China, the Internet, and several common Internet business models. Discusses regulatory and business obstacles to the growth of e-commerce in China. Finally, presents forecasts and... View Details
Keywords: Internet and the Web; Emerging Markets; Retail Industry; China
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Kennedy, Robert E., and Brian Irwin. "Development of the Internet in China (A), The: Challenges and Opportunities." Harvard Business School Case 700-093, February 2000. (Revised June 2002.)
  • February 2006 (Revised August 2006)
  • Case

Kevin McCarthy and Westlake Chemical Corporation (A)

Examines forecasting earnings/performance for a commodity chemical firm during a period of high uncertainty, highlighting the combined effects of input process (natural gas), industry capacity/utilization, and cyclicality. Assuming the role of Kevin McCarthy (the top... View Details
Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Futures and Commodity Futures; Forecasting and Prediction; Chemicals; Chemical Industry
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Riedl, Edward J. "Kevin McCarthy and Westlake Chemical Corporation (A)." Harvard Business School Case 106-049, February 2006. (Revised August 2006.)
  • Teaching Interest

Strategy - Building and Sustaining Competitive Advantage

By: Jan W. Rivkin
With the accelerating pace of competition, cutting-edge companies are defined by innovative strategies. In this Executive Education program, we explore how to develop groundbreaking stratgies and action plans for execution, forecast industry evolution, and analyze... View Details
  • Article

Can Mutual Fund Managers Pick Stocks? Evidence from Their Trades Prior to Earnings Announcements

By: Malcolm Baker, Lubomir Litov, Jessica Wachter and Jeffrey Wurgler
We consider measures of stock-picking skill of mutual fund managers based on the earnings announcement returns of the stocks that they hold and trade. Relative to standard approaches, this approach focuses on an especially informative subset of the returns data,... View Details
Keywords: Competency and Skills; Stocks; Investment Return; Investment Funds; Earnings Management
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Baker, Malcolm, Lubomir Litov, Jessica Wachter, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Can Mutual Fund Managers Pick Stocks? Evidence from Their Trades Prior to Earnings Announcements." Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 45, no. 5 (October 2010): 1111 –1131.
  • April 2010 (Revised May 2017)
  • Case

Tremblant Capital Group

By: Robin Greenwood
Brett Barakett, CEO and founder of Tremblant Capital Group, a New York–based hedge fund, must decide what to do with his fund's position in Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, which has dropped in value by more than 40% in recent months. Tremblant is a hedge fund that... View Details
Keywords: Business Earnings; Behavioral Finance; Stocks; Investment Funds; Consumer Behavior; Competitive Advantage; Financial Services Industry; New York (city, NY)
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Greenwood, Robin. "Tremblant Capital Group." Harvard Business School Case 210-071, April 2010. (Revised May 2017.)
  • Research Summary

The Role of Financial and Information Intermediaries in the Capital Markets

Hutton's research investigates the role of financial analysts and short sellers in the pricing of equity securities. Recently, Hutton examines (with Patricia Dechow and Richard Sloan) the role of sell-side analysts' earnings forecasts in the pricing of common equity... View Details
  • July 2002 (Revised March 2005)
  • Case

Kendall Square Research Corporation (A) (Abridged)

By: William J. Bruns Jr. and F. Warren McFarlan
Kendall Square Research was a small competitor in the supercomputer industry. Sales grew rapidly in 1992 and early 1993, and the company sold stock to the public for the first time. Analysts forecasted higher earnings for 1993, then the company's revenue recognition... View Details
Keywords: Revenue Recognition; Standards; Accounting Audits; Computer Industry
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Bruns, William J., Jr., and F. Warren McFarlan. "Kendall Square Research Corporation (A) (Abridged)." Harvard Business School Case 303-036, July 2002. (Revised March 2005.)
  • 2013
  • Book

Business Analysis and Valuation: Using Financial Statements, Text and Cases

By: Krishna G. Palepu and Paul M. Healy
This book provides a framework for business analysis and has been used by business schools throughout the world. It provides a foundation for analysis using four key steps: 1) Strategy analysis: Identifying a firm's strategy and understanding sources of its competitive... View Details
Keywords: Governance; Debt Securities; Valuation; Performance Evaluation; Financial Statements; Credit; Business Ventures; Strategy; Financial Condition; Mergers and Acquisitions; Forecasting and Prediction
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Palepu, Krishna G., and Paul M. Healy. Business Analysis and Valuation: Using Financial Statements, Text and Cases. 5th ed. Cengage Learning, 2013.
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