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July 2007
Article

A Two-Person Game of Information Transmission

By: Jerry R. Green and Nancy L. Stokey

We consider a statistical decision problem faced by a two player organization whose members may not agree on outcome evaluations and prior probabilities. One player is specialized in gathering information and transmitting it to the other, who takes the decision. This... View Details

Keywords: Game Theory; Cheap Talk; Communication Games; Communication; Information

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06 Jan 2015
News

Harvard Business School Professor Emeritus Paul Vatter Dies at 90

1 Mar 2013 - 2 Mar 2013
Conference Presentation

The Value of Flexibility in Baseball Roster Construction

By: Timothy Chan and Douglas S. Fearing

Drawing inspiration from the theory of production flexibility in manufacturing networks, we provide the first optimization-based analysis of the value of positional flexibility (the ability of a player to play multiple positions) for a major league baseball team in the... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Design; Production; Resource Allocation; Groups and Teams; Adaptation; Sports

Article

Do the Right Firms Survive Bankruptcy?

By: Samuel Antill

In U.S. Chapter 11 bankruptcy cases, firms are either reorganized, acquired, or liquidated. I show that decisions to liquidate often reduce creditor recovery, costing creditors billions of dollars every year. I exploit the within-district random assignment of... View Details

Keywords: Bankruptcy; Bankruptcy Reorganization; Recovery Rate; Structural Estimation; Roy Model; 363 Sales; Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms

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March 2018
Article

Scraped Data and Sticky Prices

By: Alberto Cavallo

I use daily prices collected from online retailers in five countries to study the impact of measurement bias on three common price stickiness statistics. Relative to previous results, I find that online prices have longer durations, with fewer price changes close to... View Details

Keywords: Online Data; Scraped Data; Sticky Prices; Scanner Data; Consumer Price Index; Price; Data and Data Sets

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The Discipline of Business Experimentation

The data you already have can't tell you how customers will react to innovations. To discover if a truly novel concept will succeed, you must subject it to a rigorous experiment. In most companies, tests do not adhere to scientific and statistical principles. As... View Details

2021
Working Paper

Digital Labor Market Inequality and the Decline of IT Exceptionalism

By: Ruiqing Cao and Shane Greenstein

Several decades of expansion in digital communications, web commerce, and online distribution have altered regional IT labor market returns in the United States. IT occupations experienced similar wage growth as STEM occupations involving IT-related work activities,... View Details

Keywords: Information Technology; Labor; Wages; Equality and Inequality

December 2008
Article

Behavioral Frontiers in Choice Modeling

We review the discussion at a workshop whose goal was to achieve a better integration among behavioral, economic, and statistical approaches to choice modeling. The workshop explored how current approaches to the specification, estimation, and application of choice... View Details

Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Integration; Goals and Objectives; Decision Choices and Conditions; Problems and Challenges; Business Processes; Customers; Behavior; Economics

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January–March 2000
Article

Un nuevo índice de precios para México, 1886-1929 [A New Price Index for Mexico, 1886-1929]

By: Aurora Gómez-Galvarriato and Aldo Musacchio

We present new price indices for the period 1886-1929. These indices have several advantages with respect to the previous ones: i) they cover the whole period with the same methodology, and by reaching 1929 these series can be joined with contemporary price indices,... View Details

Keywords: Price; Inflation and Deflation; Macroeconomics; Mexico

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Eugene F. Soltes

Eugene Soltes is a Professor of Business Administration at Harvard Business School where his work focuses on corporate integrity and risk management. His research utilizes data analytics to identify organizational cultures and compliance systems that can effectively... View Details

Article

Scenario Generation for Long Run Interest Rate Risk Assessment

By: Robert F. Engle, Guillaume Roussellet and Emil N. Siriwardane

We propose a statistical model of the term structure of U.S. treasury yields tailored for long-term probability-based scenario generation and forecasts. Our model is easy to estimate and is able to simultaneously reproduce the positivity, persistence, and factor... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting; Stress Testing; Interest Rates; Forecasting and Prediction; Risk Management; United States

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Article

Howard Raiffa: The Art, Science, and Humanity of a Legendary Negotiation Analyst

By: James K. Sebenius

Rightly known as the “father of negotiation analysis,” Howard Raiffa was my thesis advisor, colleague, and friend for over 30 years. The bulk of this article develops an account of his intellectual trajectory from game theory to statistical decision theory to decision... View Details

Keywords: Negotiation Analysis; Bargaining; Howard Raiffa; Negotiation; Personal Development and Career

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June 2012 (Revised August 2013)
Case

Driving Towards a Disruption?

By: Willy Shih and William Noble

As Clayton Christensen drove to the studio to deliver an online executive education class, he pondered the future of management education. How big a threat did online degree programs, corporate universities, and other innovations in the delivery of management training... View Details

Keywords: Disruptive Technology; Performance Trajectories; Disruptive Innovations; Business Education; Business School; Internet And Online Services Industries; Disruptive Innovation; Higher Education; Corporate Strategy; Internet; Performance; Education Industry; Boston

Matthew Rabin

Matthew Rabin is the Pershing Square Professor of Behavioral Economics in the Harvard Economics Department and Harvard Business School.

Before that, he spent 25 years at the wonderful University of California, Berkeley Economics Department. His research... View Details

July 19, 2021
Article

Do Most Family Businesses Really Fail by the Third Generation?

By: Josh Baron and Rob Lachenauer

Perhaps the most commonly-cited statistic about family businesses is their failure rates. Most articles or speeches about family businesses start with some version of the “three-generation rule,” which suggests that most don’t survive beyond three generations. But that... View Details

Keywords: Family Business; Success; Perception

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Article

Physician-Induced Demand for Medical Care

By: Jerry R. Green

This paper addresses the theoretical models designed to ascertain the existence of a variable level of physicians' activity in shifting the demand of their patients. Two basic approaches are followed: equilibrium models of the demand for health care, and disequilibrium... View Details

Keywords: Physicians; Economic Equilibrium; Monopolistic Competition; Economic Competition; Medical Care

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2012
Other Unpublished Work

Measuring the Broadband Bonus in 20 OECD Countries

By: Shane Greenstein and Ryan McDevitt

This paper provides estimates of the economic value created by broadband Internet using measures of new gross domestic product and consumer surplus. The study finds that the economic value created in 30 OECD countries correlates roughly with the overall size of their... View Details

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Research Summary

The Real Effects of Capital Controls: Financial Constraints, Exporters, and Firm Investment

By: Laura Alfaro

In aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2008–2009, emerging-market governments have increasingly restricted foreign capital inflows. The data show a statistically significant drop in cumulative abnormal returns for Brazilian firms following capital control... View Details

Article

Are Online and Offline Prices Similar? Evidence from Large Multi-Channel Retailers

By: Alberto Cavallo

Online prices are increasingly used for measurement and research applications, yet little is known about their relation to prices in physical stores, where most retail transactions occur. I conduct the first large-scale comparison of prices simultaneously collected... View Details

Keywords: Online Prices; Offline Prices; Multi-channel Retailers; Price; Internet and the Web; Measurement and Metrics; Retail Industry

Article

Portfolio Value-at-Risk Optimization for Asymmetrically Distributed Asset Returns

By: Joel Goh, Kian Guan Lim, Melvyn Sim and Weina Zhang

We propose a new approach to portfolio optimization by separating asset return distributions into positive and negative half-spaces. The approach minimizes a newly-defined Partitioned Value-at-Risk (PVaR) risk measure by using half-space statistical information. Using... View Details

Keywords: Robust Optimization; Portfolio Management; Value-at-risk; Mathematical Methods; Finance

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