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      Forecasting And PredictionRemove Forecasting And Prediction →

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      • January 2022 (Revised January 2024)
      • Case

      ReNew Power: Leading the Energy Transition in India

      By: Gunnar Trumbull and Malini Sen
      Founder-CEO of one of India’s largest clean energy companies, ReNew Power, which develops, builds, and operates utility-scale wind and solar energy projects, has to decide the way forward for the company as the country and the world stand poised at the cusp of an... View Details
      Keywords: Energy Generation; Renewable Energy; Energy Sources; Entrepreneurship; Private Equity; Initial Public Offering; Forecasting and Prediction; Trends; Transformation; Private Ownership; Environmental Sustainability; Energy Industry; India; Asia
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      Trumbull, Gunnar, and Malini Sen. "ReNew Power: Leading the Energy Transition in India." Harvard Business School Case 722-028, January 2022. (Revised January 2024.)
      • January 2022
      • Case

      Tomorrow.io Goes to Space

      By: Joshua Lev Krieger, Abhishek Nagaraj and James Barnett
      This case study explores the evolution of Tomorrow.io, a weather forecasting technology company, as it pivoted toward building and launching space-based weather radar satellites. This strategic shift was driven by the company's ambition to overcome data limitations in... View Details
      Keywords: Communication; Competency and Skills; Engineering; Globalization; Innovation and Invention; Performance; Information Technology; Aerospace Industry
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      Krieger, Joshua Lev, Abhishek Nagaraj, and James Barnett. "Tomorrow.io Goes to Space." Harvard Business School Case 822-005, January 2022.
      • January 2022
      • Technical Note

      Introduction to Capital Structure Analytics

      By: Samuel Antill and Ted Berk
      This technical note provides an overview of key analytical approaches that are useful in assessing the appropriateness of a firm’s capital structure and funding plan. This note introduces basic quantitative tools and metrics that are commonly used as inputs to this... View Details
      Keywords: Budgets and Budgeting; Business Plan; Forecasting and Prediction; Borrowing and Debt; Corporate Finance; Capital Structure; Cash Flow; Financial Liquidity; Financial Management; Financing and Loans
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      Antill, Samuel, and Ted Berk. "Introduction to Capital Structure Analytics." Harvard Business School Technical Note 222-061, January 2022.
      • January 2022 (Revised March 2022)
      • Module Note

      Analysis of Financial and Non-Financial Information for Forecasting Performance

      By: Charles C.Y. Wang
      This note describes the main themes and cases of a teaching module on the analysis of information from, and outside of, financial statements for forecasting firms’ future financial performance. The module’s pedagogical goal is to deepen students’ understanding of the... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Reporting; Performance; Analysis; Valuation; Accounting; Finance
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      Wang, Charles C.Y. "Analysis of Financial and Non-Financial Information for Forecasting Performance." Harvard Business School Module Note 122-071, January 2022. (Revised March 2022.)
      • January 2022
      • Background Note

      Residual Income Valuation Model

      By: Charles C.Y. Wang and Albert Shin
      This note explains the residual income valuation model (RIM), how it relates to "traditional" valuation models, the intuition behind its use, and empirical research related to its value relevance. RIM is theoretically equivalent to the dividend discount model and the... View Details
      Keywords: Residual Income Valuation; Valuation; Research; Theory; Measurement and Metrics; Performance; Financial Management; Business Strategy
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      Wang, Charles C.Y., and Albert Shin. "Residual Income Valuation Model." Harvard Business School Background Note 122-070, January 2022.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Feeling Seen: Leader Eye Gaze Promotes Psychological Safety, Participation, and Voice

      By: Nicole Abi-Esber, Alison Wood Brooks and Ethan Burris
      Psychological safety is a hallmark of effective team functioning. Although prior work shows that characteristics of the leader influence employee judgments of psychological safety (and subsequent decisions to speak up), we know very little about “the specific behaviors... View Details
      Keywords: Eye Gaze; Psychological Safety; Voice; Participation; Nonverbal Behavior; Verbal Behavior; Ostracism; Conversation; Groups; Groups and Teams; Social Psychology; Safety; Leadership; Behavior
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      Abi-Esber, Nicole, Alison Wood Brooks, and Ethan Burris. "Feeling Seen: Leader Eye Gaze Promotes Psychological Safety, Participation, and Voice." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-048, January 2022.
      • January 10, 2022
      • Article

      The Link Between Income, Income Inequality, and Prosocial Behavior Around the World: A Multiverse Approach

      By: Lucia Macchia and Ashley V. Whillans
      The questions of whether high-income individuals are more prosocial than low-income individuals and whether income inequality moderates this effect have received extensive attention. We shed new light on this topic by analyzing a large-scale dataset with a... View Details
      Keywords: Prosocial Behavior; Income Inequality; Behavior; Philanthropy and Charitable Giving; Income
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      Macchia, Lucia, and Ashley V. Whillans. "The Link Between Income, Income Inequality, and Prosocial Behavior Around the World: A Multiverse Approach." Social Psychology (January 10, 2022): 375–386.
      • January 2022
      • Article

      Rational Habit Formation: Experimental Evidence from Handwashing in India

      By: Reshmaan Hussam, Atonu Rabbani, Giovanni Reggiani and Natalia Rigol
      We test the predictions of the rational addiction model, reconceptualized as rational habit formation, in the context of handwashing in rural India. To track handwashing, we design soap dispensers with timed sensors. We test for rational habit formation by informing... View Details
      Keywords: Handwashing; Habit; Monitoring; Behavior; Health; Motivation and Incentives
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      Hussam, Reshmaan, Atonu Rabbani, Giovanni Reggiani, and Natalia Rigol. "Rational Habit Formation: Experimental Evidence from Handwashing in India." American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 14, no. 1 (January 2022): 1–41. (Lead Article.)
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      TalkToModel: Explaining Machine Learning Models with Interactive Natural Language Conversations

      By: Dylan Slack, Satyapriya Krishna, Himabindu Lakkaraju and Sameer Singh
      Practitioners increasingly use machine learning (ML) models, yet they have become more complex and harder to understand. To address this issue, researchers have proposed techniques to explain model predictions. However, practitioners struggle to use explainability... View Details
      Keywords: Natural Language Conversations; Predictive Models; AI and Machine Learning
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      Slack, Dylan, Satyapriya Krishna, Himabindu Lakkaraju, and Sameer Singh. "TalkToModel: Explaining Machine Learning Models with Interactive Natural Language Conversations." Working Paper, 2022.
      • January 2022
      • Article

      Why Is Corporate Virtue in the Eye of the Beholder? The Case of ESG Ratings

      By: Dane Christensen, George Serafeim and Anywhere Sikochi
      Despite the rising use of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) ratings, there is substantial disagreement across rating agencies regarding what rating to give to individual firms. As what drives this disagreement is unclear, we examine whether a firm’s ESG... View Details
      Keywords: ESG Ratings; Rating Agency Disagreement; ESG Disclosure; Corporate Social Responsibility; Sustainability; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Environmental Sustainability; Corporate Disclosure
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      Christensen, Dane, George Serafeim, and Anywhere Sikochi. "Why Is Corporate Virtue in the Eye of the Beholder? The Case of ESG Ratings." Accounting Review 97, no. 1 (January 2022): 147–175.
      • Article

      Megastudies Improve the Impact of Applied Behavioural Science

      By: Katherine L. Milkman, Dena Gromet, Hung Ho, Joseph S. Kay, Timothy W. Lee, Pepi Pandiloski, Yeji Park, Aneesh Rai, Max Bazerman, John Beshears, Lauri Bonacorsi, Colin Camerer, Edward Chang, Gretchen Chapman, Robert Cialdini, Hengchen Dai, Lauren Eskreis-Winkler, Ayelet Fishbach, James J. Gross, Samantha Horn, Alexa Hubbard, Steven J. Jones, Dean Karlan, Tim Kautz, Erika Kirgios, Joowon Klusowski, Ariella Kristal, Rahul Ladhania, Jens Ludwig, George Loewenstein, Barbara Mellers, Sendhil Mullainathan, Silvia Saccardo, Jann Spiess, Gaurav Suri, Joachim H. Talloen, Jamie Taxer, Yaacov Trope, Lyle Ungar, Kevin G. Volpp, Ashley V. Whillans, Jonathan Zinman and Angela L. Duckworth
      Policy-makers are increasingly turning to behavioural science for insights about how to improve citizens’ decisions and outcomes. Typically, different scientists test different intervention ideas in different samples using different outcomes over different time... View Details
      Keywords: Policy Making; Behavioral Science; Behavior; Change; Decision Making; Policy
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      Milkman, Katherine L., Dena Gromet, Hung Ho, Joseph S. Kay, Timothy W. Lee, Pepi Pandiloski, Yeji Park, Aneesh Rai, Max Bazerman, John Beshears, Lauri Bonacorsi, Colin Camerer, Edward Chang, Gretchen Chapman, Robert Cialdini, Hengchen Dai, Lauren Eskreis-Winkler, Ayelet Fishbach, James J. Gross, Samantha Horn, Alexa Hubbard, Steven J. Jones, Dean Karlan, Tim Kautz, Erika Kirgios, Joowon Klusowski, Ariella Kristal, Rahul Ladhania, Jens Ludwig, George Loewenstein, Barbara Mellers, Sendhil Mullainathan, Silvia Saccardo, Jann Spiess, Gaurav Suri, Joachim H. Talloen, Jamie Taxer, Yaacov Trope, Lyle Ungar, Kevin G. Volpp, Ashley V. Whillans, Jonathan Zinman, and Angela L. Duckworth. "Megastudies Improve the Impact of Applied Behavioural Science." Nature 600, no. 7889 (December 16, 2021): 478–483.
      • Article

      A Prescriptive Analytics Framework for Optimal Policy Deployment Using Heterogeneous Treatment Effects

      By: Edward McFowland III, Sandeep Gangarapu, Ravi Bapna and Tianshu Sun
      We define a prescriptive analytics framework that addresses the needs of a constrained decision-maker facing, ex ante, unknown costs and benefits of multiple policy levers. The framework is general in nature and can be deployed in any utility maximizing context, public... View Details
      Keywords: Prescriptive Analytics; Heterogeneous Treatment Effects; Optimization; Observed Rank Utility Condition (OUR); Between-treatment Heterogeneity; Machine Learning; Decision Making; Analysis; Mathematical Methods
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      McFowland III, Edward, Sandeep Gangarapu, Ravi Bapna, and Tianshu Sun. "A Prescriptive Analytics Framework for Optimal Policy Deployment Using Heterogeneous Treatment Effects." MIS Quarterly 45, no. 4 (December 2021): 1807–1832.
      • Article

      Core Earnings: New Data and Evidence

      By: Ethan Rouen, Eric C. So and Charles C.Y. Wang
      Using a novel dataset, we show that components of firms' GAAP earnings stemming from ancillary business activities or transitory shocks are significant in frequency and magnitude. These components have grown over time and are dispersed across various sections of the... View Details
      Keywords: Core Earnings; Transitory Earnings; Non-operating Earnings; Quantitative Disclosures; Equity Valuation; Big Data; Business Earnings; Financial Reporting; Valuation; Analytics and Data Science
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      Rouen, Ethan, Eric C. So, and Charles C.Y. Wang. "Core Earnings: New Data and Evidence." Journal of Financial Economics 142, no. 3 (December 2021): 1068–1091.
      • Article

      Counterfactual Explanations Can Be Manipulated

      By: Dylan Slack, Sophie Hilgard, Himabindu Lakkaraju and Sameer Singh
      Counterfactual explanations are useful for both generating recourse and auditing fairness between groups. We seek to understand whether adversaries can manipulate counterfactual explanations in an algorithmic recourse setting: if counterfactual explanations indicate... View Details
      Keywords: Machine Learning Models; Counterfactual Explanations
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      Slack, Dylan, Sophie Hilgard, Himabindu Lakkaraju, and Sameer Singh. "Counterfactual Explanations Can Be Manipulated." Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS) 34 (2021).
      • December 2021
      • Article

      Entrepreneurial Learning and Strategic Foresight

      By: Aticus Peterson and Andy Wu
      We study how learning by experience across projects affects an entrepreneur's strategic foresight. In a quantitative study of 314 entrepreneurs across 722 crowdfunded projects supplemented with a program of qualitative interviews, we counterintuitively find that... View Details
      Keywords: Crowdfunding; Experience; Prediction; Timeline; Complexity; Entrepreneurship; Learning; Experience and Expertise; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Peterson, Aticus, and Andy Wu. "Entrepreneurial Learning and Strategic Foresight." Art. 1. Strategic Management Journal 42, no. 13 (December 2021): 2357–2388. (Lead article.)
      • December 2021
      • Article

      Left- and Right-Leaning News Organizations Use Negative Emotional Content and Elicit User Engagement Similarly

      By: Andrea Bellovary, Nathaniel Young and Amit Goldenberg
      Negativity has historically dominated news content; however, little research has examined how news organizations use affect on social media, where content is generally positive. In the current project we ask a few questions: Do news organizations on Twitter use... View Details
      Keywords: Negative Press; Twitter; Political Affiliation; Affect; News; Media; Internet and the Web; Emotions; Perspective; Social Media
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      Bellovary, Andrea, Nathaniel Young, and Amit Goldenberg. "Left- and Right-Leaning News Organizations Use Negative Emotional Content and Elicit User Engagement Similarly." Affective Science 2, no. 4 (December 2021): 391–396.
      • December 2021
      • Article

      Negativity Spreads More Than Positivity on Twitter after Both Positive and Negative Political Situations

      By: Jonas Paul Schöne, Brian Parkinson and Amit Goldenberg
      What type of emotional language spreads further in political discourses on social media? Previous research has focused on situations that primarily elicited negative emotions, showing that negative language tended to spread further. The current project extends existing... View Details
      Keywords: Negative Emotions; Emotional Influence; Emotional Resonance; Political Discourse; Emotion Contagion; Intergroup; Interactive Communication; Emotions; Government and Politics; Social Media
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      Schöne, Jonas Paul, Brian Parkinson, and Amit Goldenberg. "Negativity Spreads More Than Positivity on Twitter after Both Positive and Negative Political Situations." Affective Science 2, no. 4 (December 2021): 379–390.
      • December 2021
      • Article

      Trade Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns

      By: Marcelo Bianconi, Federico Esposito and Marco Sammon
      A recent literature has documented large real effects of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on trade, employment, and investment, but there is little evidence that investors are compensated for bearing such risk. To quantify the risk premium associated with TPU, we exploit... View Details
      Keywords: Trade Policy; Uncertainty; Stock Returns; Risk Premium; Tariff Rates; Portfolio Analysis; Trade; Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Stocks; Investment Return
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      Bianconi, Marcelo, Federico Esposito, and Marco Sammon. "Trade Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns." Art. 102492. Journal of International Money and Finance 119 (December 2021).
      • Article

      Extension Request Avoidance Predicts Greater Time Stress Among Women

      By: Ashley V. Whillans, Jaewon Yoon, Aurora Turek and Grant E. Donnelly
      In nine studies using archival data, surveys, and experiments, we identify a factor that predicts gender differences in time stress and burnout. Across academic and professional settings, women are less likely to ask for more time when working under adjustable... View Details
      Keywords: Burnout; Time Stress; Workplace Practices; Deadlines; Time Management; Gender; Well-being
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      Whillans, Ashley V., Jaewon Yoon, Aurora Turek, and Grant E. Donnelly. "Extension Request Avoidance Predicts Greater Time Stress Among Women." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 118, no. 45 (November 9, 2021).
      • Article

      Complementarity between Audited Financial Reporting and Voluntary Disclosure: The Case of Former Andersen Clients

      By: Richard Frankel, Alon Kalay, Gil Sadka and Yuan Zou
      Prior literature presents various perspectives on the role of financial reporting. One view is that mandatory periodic reporting disciplines managers and encourages timely voluntary disclosure. We examine this "confirmation hypothesis" using the shock to financial... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Disclosure; Mandatory Reporting; Reliability; Voluntary Disclosure; Financial Reporting; Quality; Corporate Disclosure
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      Frankel, Richard, Alon Kalay, Gil Sadka, and Yuan Zou. "Complementarity between Audited Financial Reporting and Voluntary Disclosure: The Case of Former Andersen Clients." Accounting Review 96, no. 6 (November 2021): 215–238.
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