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2014
Article

The Promise of Prediction Contests

By: Phillip E. Pfeifer, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Kenneth C. Lichtendahl

This article examines the prediction contest as a vehicle for aggregating the opinions of a crowd of experts. After proposing a general definition distinguishing prediction contests from other mechanisms for harnessing the wisdom of crowds, we focus on... View Details

Keywords: Prediction; Forecasting and Prediction

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2003
Article

The Influence of Culture and Corporate Governance on the Characteristics that Distinguish Superior Analysts

By: Michael B. Clement, Lynn Rees and Edward Swanson

We identify characteristics of financial analysts that have been shown to be associated with relative forecast accuracy in the United States and examine these characteristics within 10 countries. We find that relative forecast accuracy is influenced by years of... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Evaluation

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February 1989 (Revised November 1991)
Case

Science Technology Co.--1985

By: Thomas R. Piper

The CEO of a U.S. electronics firm is assessing the financial forecasts and the financing plan prepared by the chief financial officer. Given the cyclicality of the industry and the volatility of the firm's performance, the CEO is unsure as to the usefulness of... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Change Management; Industry Growth; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Strategy; Volatility; Electronics Industry

April 2007 (Revised April 2008)
Case

Corrections Corporation of America

This case illustrates a comprehensive valuation of a publicly traded firm specializing in building and managing prisons. Students must assess the firm's strategy and risks, evaluate key financial reports, derive forecasts of future performance, and use these forecasts... View Details

Keywords: Financial Statements; Buildings and Facilities; For-Profit Firms; Crime and Corruption; Forecasting and Prediction; Risk Management; Valuation; Construction Industry; Public Administration Industry; Service Industry

December 2003 (Revised February 2008)
Background Note

Law and Legal Reasoning: An Introduction

By: Henry B. Reiling

Gives prominence to Mr. Justice Holmes' Prediction Theory of the law as a practical--and by analogy to forecasting in finance and other functional areas of business--comfortable, and familiar way for businesspeople to think about the law. Law is defined as a forecast... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Law; Theory

2010
Other Unpublished Work

Share Issuance and Factor Timing

By: Robin Greenwood and Samuel Hanson

We show that characteristics of stock issuers can be used to forecast important common factors in stocks returns such as those associated with book-to-market, size, and industry. Specifically, we use differences between the attributes of stock issuers and repurchasers... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Equity; Stocks; Stock Shares; Investment Return; Investment Portfolio; Price; Performance Evaluation

November 1974 (Revised May 1994)
Case

Science Technology Co.

By: Thomas R. Piper

The president of a medium-sized electronics company is evaluating the financial forecasts and proposed financing program submitted by the chief financial officer. The forecasts are prepared in constant dollars, on which basis the proposed financing plan seems... View Details

Keywords: Currency; Financial Strategy; Forecasting and Prediction; Inflation and Deflation; Risk and Uncertainty; Outcome or Result; Technology Industry; Electronics Industry

February 2014 (Revised August 2016)
Case

Strava

By: Joseph B. Lassiter III, William A. Sahlman and Sid Misra

Strava is a new fast-growing social network for the avid cyclist and runner. The Strava case traces the entrepreneurial journey of two serial entrepreneurs who have been co-founders in a prior venture, and who have co-founded Strava 3 years ago. The protagonists must... View Details

February 2010
Background Note

Marketing Analysis Toolkit: Market Size and Market Share Analysis

By: Thomas J. Steenburgh and Jill Avery

Marketers frequently need to estimate the size of their markets—both for existing products so that sales forecasts can be developed and for new products so that market opportunities can be assessed. This toolkit enables students to size a market and generate a sales... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Marketing Strategy; Markets; Demand and Consumers; Size; Strategic Planning; Sales

Research Summary

Effective Capital Market Communications

Hutton's most recent research and cases examine how managers enhance the credibility and effectiveness of their financial reports and voluntary disclosures. Her most recent working paper, "Effective Voluntary Disclosure" (co-authored with Greg Miller, HBS, and Douglas... View Details

Spring 2013
Article

Does Mandatory IFRS Adoption Improve the Information Environment?

By: Joanne Horton, George Serafeim and Ioanna Serafeim

We examine the effect of mandatory International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adoption on firms' information environment. We find that after mandatory IFRS adoption, consensus forecast errors decrease for firms that mandatorily adopt IFRS relative to forecast... View Details

Keywords: International Accounting; Financial Reporting; Standards; Information; Quality; Earnings Management

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December 2007
Article

The Roles of Task-Specific Experience and Innate Ability in Understanding Analyst Performance

By: Michael B. Clement, Lisa Koonce and Thomas Lopez

Considerable debate exists about what analyst experience measures and whether analysts learn from their experiences. Extant research has argued that once innate ability is considered, analysts’ general and firm-specific experiences are not relevant to understanding... View Details

Keywords: Experience and Expertise; Learning; Performance Evaluation; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Services Industry

November 1990
Case

Chemplan Corp.: Paint-Rite Division

By: Paul A. Vatter

An exercise with data that allows a discussion of regression analysis as a tool for forecasting and understanding structure. View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Framework; Analytics and Data Science; Mathematical Methods

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October 2002
Article

Differences of Opinion and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns

By: Karl B. Diether, Christopher J. Malloy and Anna Scherbina

We provide evidence that stocks with higher dispersion in analysts' earnings forecasts earn lower future returns than otherwise similar stocks. This effect is most pronounced in small stocks, and stocks that have performed poorly over the past year. Interpreting... View Details

Keywords: Stocks; Forecasting and Prediction; Price; Valuation; Investment Return

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March 2011
Article

Do Sell-Side Stock Analysts Exhibit Escalation of Commitment?

By: John Beshears and Katherine L. Milkman

This paper presents evidence that when an analyst makes an out-of-consensus forecast of a company's quarterly earnings that turns out to be incorrect, she escalates her commitment to maintaining an out-of-consensus view on the company. Relative to an analyst who was... View Details

Keywords: Escalation Of Commitment; Stock Market; Updating; Behavioral Economics; Motivation and Incentives; Behavior; Consumer Behavior; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction

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24 Oct 2006
First Look

First Look: October 24, 2006

Working PapersManaging Functional Biases in Organizational Forecasts: A Case Study of Consensus Forecasting in Supply Chain Planning Authors:Rogelio Oliva and Noel Watson Abstract To date, little research has been done on managing the... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

May 1979 (Revised August 2013)
Background Note

Financial Analysis of Real Property Investments

By: William J. Poorvu

Develops a conceptual framework for financial analysis of real estate investments, taking into consideration the necessity for baseline data, project trends, and forecast discontinuities. View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Return; Trends; Real Estate Industry; Financial Services Industry

February 2011 (Revised February 2011)
Supplement

The Auction for Burger King (A) (CW)

By: Malcolm P. Baker and David Lane

The courseware contains information on comparable firms and transactions as well as a forecasting model using the case data. View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Auctions; Market Transactions; Valuation; Service Industry

20 May 2015
Working Paper Summaries

Career Concerns of Banking Analysts

Keywords: by Joanne Horton, George Serafeim & Shan Wu; Banking; Financial Services

November 2024
Article

Perceptions About Monetary Policy

By: Michael D. Bauer, Carolin Pflueger and Adi Sunderam

We estimate perceptions about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy rule from panel data on professional forecasts of interest rates and macroeconomic conditions. The perceived dependence of the federal funds rate on economic conditions varies substantially over time,... View Details

Keywords: Monetary Policy; Policy; Interest Rates; Perception; Economy; Forecasting and Prediction

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