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Show Results For
- All HBS Web
(1,276)
- News (115)
- Research (1,050)
- Events (3)
- Multimedia (6)
- Faculty Publications (801)
- April 2012
- Article
Share Issuance and Factor Timing
By: Robin Greenwood and Samuel G. Hanson
We show that characteristics of stock issuers can be used to forecast important common factors in stocks' returns such as those associated with book-to-market, size, and industry. Specifically, we use differences between the attributes of stock issuers and repurchasers... View Details
Keywords: Investment Portfolio; Stock Shares; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Return; Policy; Profit
Greenwood, Robin, and Samuel G. Hanson. "Share Issuance and Factor Timing." Journal of Finance 67, no. 2 (April 2012): 761–798. (Internet Appendix Here.)
- 2003
- Article
Confirming Management Earnings Forecasts, Earnings Uncertainty, and Stock Returns
By: Michael B. Clement, Richard Frankel and Jeffrey Miller
In this study we examine the association among confirming management forecasts, stock prices, and analyst expectations. Confirming management forecasts are voluntary disclosures by management that corroborate existing market expectations about future earnings. This... View Details
Clement, Michael B., Richard Frankel, and Jeffrey Miller. "Confirming Management Earnings Forecasts, Earnings Uncertainty, and Stock Returns." Journal of Accounting Research 41, no. 4 (2003): 653–679.
- 2014
- Article
The Promise of Prediction Contests
By: Phillip E. Pfeifer, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Kenneth C. Lichtendahl
This article examines the prediction contest as a vehicle for aggregating the opinions of a crowd of experts. After proposing a general definition distinguishing prediction contests from other mechanisms for harnessing the wisdom of crowds, we focus on... View Details
Pfeifer, Phillip E., Yael Grushka-Cockayne, and Kenneth C. Lichtendahl. "The Promise of Prediction Contests." American Statistician 68, no. 4 (2014): 264–270.
- 2003
- Article
The Influence of Culture and Corporate Governance on the Characteristics that Distinguish Superior Analysts
By: Michael B. Clement, Lynn Rees and Edward Swanson
We identify characteristics of financial analysts that have been shown to be associated with relative forecast accuracy in the United States and examine these characteristics within 10 countries. We find that relative forecast accuracy is influenced by years of... View Details
Clement, Michael B., Lynn Rees, and Edward Swanson. "The Influence of Culture and Corporate Governance on the Characteristics that Distinguish Superior Analysts." Journal of Accounting, Auditing & Finance 18, no. 4 (2003): 593–618.
- 2010
- Other Unpublished Work
Share Issuance and Factor Timing
By: Robin Greenwood and Samuel Hanson
We show that characteristics of stock issuers can be used to forecast important common factors in stocks returns such as those associated with book-to-market, size, and industry. Specifically, we use differences between the attributes of stock issuers and repurchasers... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Equity; Stocks; Stock Shares; Investment Return; Investment Portfolio; Price; Performance Evaluation
Greenwood, Robin, and Samuel Hanson. "Share Issuance and Factor Timing." December 2010. (Appendix. Previously titled "Characteristic Timing," NBER Working Paper Series, No. 15948.)
- February 2014 (Revised August 2016)
- Case
Strava
By: Joseph B. Lassiter III, William A. Sahlman and Sid Misra
Strava is a new fast-growing social network for the avid cyclist and runner. The Strava case traces the entrepreneurial journey of two serial entrepreneurs who have been co-founders in a prior venture, and who have co-founded Strava 3 years ago. The protagonists must... View Details
Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Cycling; Biking; Running; Sports; Technology; Mobile App; Mobile; GPS; Motivation; Behavioral Science; Founders; Term Sheet; Investment; Terms; Silicon Valley; Lifestyle; Strava; Financing; Fundraising; Angel; Valuation; Growth; Forecast; Business Startups; Business Plan; Trends; Forecasting and Prediction; Decision Choices and Conditions; Corporate Entrepreneurship; Institutional Investing; Collaborative Innovation and Invention; Innovation Leadership; Innovation Strategy; Innovation and Management; Technological Innovation; Management Succession; Growth Management; Growth and Development Strategy; Market Timing; Bicycle Industry; Consumer Products Industry; Technology Industry; Sports Industry; Web Services Industry; California; New England
- April 2007 (Revised April 2008)
- Case
Corrections Corporation of America
This case illustrates a comprehensive valuation of a publicly traded firm specializing in building and managing prisons. Students must assess the firm's strategy and risks, evaluate key financial reports, derive forecasts of future performance, and use these forecasts... View Details
Keywords: Financial Statements; Buildings and Facilities; For-Profit Firms; Crime and Corruption; Forecasting and Prediction; Risk Management; Valuation; Construction Industry; Public Administration Industry; Service Industry
Riedl, Edward J. "Corrections Corporation of America." Harvard Business School Case 107-071, April 2007. (Revised April 2008.)
- February 1989 (Revised November 1991)
- Case
Science Technology Co.--1985
By: Thomas R. Piper
The CEO of a U.S. electronics firm is assessing the financial forecasts and the financing plan prepared by the chief financial officer. Given the cyclicality of the industry and the volatility of the firm's performance, the CEO is unsure as to the usefulness of... View Details
Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Change Management; Industry Growth; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Strategy; Volatility; Electronics Industry
Piper, Thomas R. "Science Technology Co.--1985." Harvard Business School Case 289-040, February 1989. (Revised November 1991.)
- December 2003 (Revised February 2008)
- Background Note
Law and Legal Reasoning: An Introduction
By: Henry B. Reiling
Gives prominence to Mr. Justice Holmes' Prediction Theory of the law as a practical--and by analogy to forecasting in finance and other functional areas of business--comfortable, and familiar way for businesspeople to think about the law. Law is defined as a forecast... View Details
Reiling, Henry B. "Law and Legal Reasoning: An Introduction." Harvard Business School Background Note 204-080, December 2003. (Revised February 2008.)
- November 1974 (Revised May 1994)
- Case
Science Technology Co.
By: Thomas R. Piper
The president of a medium-sized electronics company is evaluating the financial forecasts and proposed financing program submitted by the chief financial officer. The forecasts are prepared in constant dollars, on which basis the proposed financing plan seems... View Details
Keywords: Currency; Financial Strategy; Forecasting and Prediction; Inflation and Deflation; Risk and Uncertainty; Outcome or Result; Technology Industry; Electronics Industry
Piper, Thomas R. "Science Technology Co." Harvard Business School Case 275-058, November 1974. (Revised May 1994.)
- Research Summary
Effective Capital Market Communications
Hutton's most recent research and cases examine how managers enhance the credibility and effectiveness of their financial reports and voluntary disclosures. Her most recent working paper, "Effective Voluntary Disclosure" (co-authored with Greg Miller, HBS, and Douglas... View Details
- Spring 2013
- Article
Does Mandatory IFRS Adoption Improve the Information Environment?
By: Joanne Horton, George Serafeim and Ioanna Serafeim
We examine the effect of mandatory International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adoption on firms' information environment. We find that after mandatory IFRS adoption, consensus forecast errors decrease for firms that mandatorily adopt IFRS relative to forecast... View Details
Keywords: International Accounting; Financial Reporting; Standards; Information; Quality; Earnings Management
Horton, Joanne, George Serafeim, and Ioanna Serafeim. "Does Mandatory IFRS Adoption Improve the Information Environment?" Contemporary Accounting Research 30, no. 1 (Spring 2013): 388–423.
- February 2010
- Background Note
Marketing Analysis Toolkit: Market Size and Market Share Analysis
By: Thomas J. Steenburgh and Jill Avery
Marketers frequently need to estimate the size of their markets—both for existing products so that sales forecasts can be developed and for new products so that market opportunities can be assessed. This toolkit enables students to size a market and generate a sales... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Marketing Strategy; Markets; Demand and Consumers; Size; Strategic Planning; Sales
Steenburgh, Thomas J., and Jill Avery. "Marketing Analysis Toolkit: Market Size and Market Share Analysis." Harvard Business School Background Note 510-081, February 2010.
- December 2007
- Article
The Roles of Task-Specific Experience and Innate Ability in Understanding Analyst Performance
By: Michael B. Clement, Lisa Koonce and Thomas Lopez
Considerable debate exists about what analyst experience measures and whether analysts learn from their experiences. Extant research has argued that once innate ability is considered, analysts’ general and firm-specific experiences are not relevant to understanding... View Details
Keywords: Experience and Expertise; Learning; Performance Evaluation; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Services Industry
Clement, Michael B., Lisa Koonce, and Thomas Lopez. "The Roles of Task-Specific Experience and Innate Ability in Understanding Analyst Performance." Journal of Accounting & Economics 44, no. 3 (December 2007): 378–398.
- November 1990
- Case
Chemplan Corp.: Paint-Rite Division
By: Paul A. Vatter
An exercise with data that allows a discussion of regression analysis as a tool for forecasting and understanding structure. View Details
Vatter, Paul A. "Chemplan Corp.: Paint-Rite Division." Harvard Business School Case 191-090, November 1990.
- October 2002
- Article
Differences of Opinion and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns
By: Karl B. Diether, Christopher J. Malloy and Anna Scherbina
We provide evidence that stocks with higher dispersion in analysts' earnings forecasts earn lower future returns than otherwise similar stocks. This effect is most pronounced in small stocks, and stocks that have performed poorly over the past year. Interpreting... View Details
Diether, Karl B., Christopher J. Malloy, and Anna Scherbina. "Differences of Opinion and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns." Journal of Finance 57, no. 5 (October 2002): 2113–2141.
- March 2011
- Article
Do Sell-Side Stock Analysts Exhibit Escalation of Commitment?
By: John Beshears and Katherine L. Milkman
This paper presents evidence that when an analyst makes an out-of-consensus forecast of a company's quarterly earnings that turns out to be incorrect, she escalates her commitment to maintaining an out-of-consensus view on the company. Relative to an analyst who was... View Details
Keywords: Escalation Of Commitment; Stock Market; Updating; Behavioral Economics; Motivation and Incentives; Behavior; Consumer Behavior; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction
Beshears, John, and Katherine L. Milkman. "Do Sell-Side Stock Analysts Exhibit Escalation of Commitment?" Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 77, no. 3 (March 2011): 304–317.
- February 2011 (Revised February 2011)
- Supplement
The Auction for Burger King (A) (CW)
By: Malcolm P. Baker and David Lane
The courseware contains information on comparable firms and transactions as well as a forecasting model using the case data. View Details
- 24 Oct 2006
- First Look
First Look: October 24, 2006
Working PapersManaging Functional Biases in Organizational Forecasts: A Case Study of Consensus Forecasting in Supply Chain Planning Authors:Rogelio Oliva and Noel Watson Abstract To date, little research has been done on managing the... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
- May 1979 (Revised August 2013)
- Background Note
Financial Analysis of Real Property Investments
Develops a conceptual framework for financial analysis of real estate investments, taking into consideration the necessity for baseline data, project trends, and forecast discontinuities. View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Return; Trends; Real Estate Industry; Financial Services Industry
Poorvu, William J. "Financial Analysis of Real Property Investments." Harvard Business School Background Note 379-193, May 1979. (Revised August 2013.)