Publications

27 May 2014
First Look

First Look: May 27

times, when expected short-run returns are relatively low and 2) the model-implied forecaster of aggregate returns exhibits modest predictive ability. Collectively, we provide... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

19 Jan 2022
In Practice

As 2022 gets underway we asked our faculty to highlight some trends worth watching in the coming year. Ariel Stern: A new future for digital health care While 2020 and 2021 were years of rapid innovation and deployment of new health care technologies and delivery... View Details

Keywords: by HBS News

November – December 2011
Article

Most Likely to Succeed: Leadership in the Industry

By: Robert C. Pozen and Theresa Hamacher

What is the critical factor for success in the U.S. mutual fund industry? Is it top-ranked investment performance, innovative products, or pervasive distribution? In our view, it is none of these factors, despite their obvious importance. Instead, the best predictors... View Details

Keywords: Leadership; Success; Investment Funds; Rank and Position; Performance; Investment; Innovation and Invention; Product; Distribution; Forecasting and Prediction; Asset Management; Governance Controls; United States

July 2010 (Revised September 2011)
Background Note

Hiring Successful Professionals: One Process--Multiple Goals

By: Heidi K. Gardner

The best hiring practices help professional firms attract successful employees, equip newcomers with critical support networks, increase the firm's diversity, and enhance its reputation. This Note delineates how leading firms manage these multiple objectives throughout... View Details

Keywords: Integration; Goals and Objectives; Selection and Staffing; Talent and Talent Management; Management Practices and Processes; Forecasting and Prediction; Employees; Diversity Characteristics; Service Industry

December 1998
Background Note

Cash Management Practices in Small Companies

By: H. Kent Bowen, Andrew R. Jassy, Laurence E. Katz, Kevin E. Kelly and Baltej Kochar

Most small business managers claim that cash management is their leading concern. Often walking a tightrope between growth and illiquidity, small business managers face different cash management challenges than their counterparts in larger companies. Compared to larger... View Details

Keywords: Motivation and Incentives; Working Capital; Management Practices and Processes; Organizational Design; Cash; Forecasting and Prediction; Policy; Business Strategy

12 Jul 2011
First Look

First Look: July 12

standard, the FASB predicted managers will, on average, use the fair value estimates to convey private information on future cash flows. The current fair value of goodwill is unverifiable because it depends in part on management's future... View Details

Keywords: Carmen Nobel

October 2001 (Revised March 2002)
Background Note

Implicit Predictors of Consumer Behavior

By: Gerald Zaltman, Nancy Puccinelli, Kathryn A. Braun and Fred W Mast PHD

An important distinction is drawn in psychology between explicit and implicit knowledge. Explicit knowledge refers to consciously held beliefs about an individual or object that often draws on the remembering of experiences in the past. In contrast, implicit knowledge... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Values and Beliefs; Knowledge Sharing; Consumer Behavior; Opportunities; Cognition and Thinking

29 Aug 2006
First Look

First Look: August 29, 2006

Using Judgmental Forecasts Authors:Vishal Gaur, Saravanan Kesavan, Ananth Raman, and Marshall L. Fisher Periodical:Manufacturing and Service Operations Management (forthcoming)... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

December 1991 (Revised February 1992)
Case

Dayton Electric Corp.

By: Steven C. Wheelwright

Concerns a product redesign decision for one of the company's most successful motor products, its rectified power, medium D-C motor, the RPM. A one-year redesign program has proposed a design that comes close to meeting its stated cost and performance goals, but at the... View Details

Keywords: Product Design; Strategic Planning; Research and Development; Business Divisions; Decisions; Forecasting and Prediction; Product Development; Technological Innovation; Machinery and Machining; Manufacturing Industry; Ohio

May 2011
Article

Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents

By: Eric J. Van den Steen

This paper derives two mechanisms through which Bayesian-rational individuals with differing priors will tend to be relatively overconfident about their estimates and predictions, in the sense of overestimating the precision of these estimates. The intuition behind one... View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Knowledge Acquisition; Risk Management; Prejudice and Bias

Read Now

Person Page

Read excerpts from DENIAL

By: Richard S. Tedlow

The Edifice Complex: Denial at Sears

Book Excerpt: Denial at Sears (BusinessWeek.com, February 26, 2010)

From Denial: Why Business... View Details

27 Feb 2007
First Look

First Look: February 27, 2007

inflows predict no change in the discount, but forecast positive changes in both net asset values and closed-end fund prices. This fact also contradicts the price pressure... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

February 2013 (Revised December 2015)
Case

Groom Energy Solutions: Selling Efficiency

By: Michael W. Toffel, Kira R. Fabrizio and Stephanie van Sice

Groom Energy Solutions helps organizations reduce their energy use and costs through the implementation of energy efficiency measures, which create long-term financial and environmental benefits. With early success serving customers in the cold storage and industrial... View Details

Keywords: Groom Energy Solutions; Jon Guerster; Salem, MA; Energy Management; Energy Efficiency Paradox; Sustainability Management; Manufacturing; Cold Storage; Commercial Real Estate; Enterprise Smart Grid; Carbon Accounting; LED Lighting; Sustainability Research; Entrepreneurship; Environmental Entrepreneurship; Energy Entrepreneurship; Energy Services; Electricity; Startup; Expansion; Growth; Sustainability; Business Startups; Forecasting and Prediction; Energy Conservation; Revenue; Geographic Location; Human Resources; Management; Growth and Development Strategy; Market Entry and Exit; Operations; Service Delivery; Strategic Planning; Science; Environmental Sustainability; Climate Change; Society; Social Issues; Technology Adoption; Energy Industry; Green Technology Industry; Technology Industry; Utilities Industry; United States; Boston

October 2023 (Revised January 2024)
Case

Ball: EVA Driving the World's Leading Can Manufacturer (A)

By: Jonas Heese and Susan Pinckney

The case describes Ball’s multi decade history of using Economic Value Added to drive decision making and workforce compensation. In 2016, the company acquired Rexam PLC and became the world’s leading metal beverage container company. Consumer demand for varied... View Details

28 Jan 2014
First Look

First Look: January 28

distinctive methods of prediction to investors and businesses and thrived in the boom years that followed World War I. Yet, almost to a man, they failed to View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

July 2002
Case

Introducing ... The XFL!

By: Susan M. Fournier, Stephen A. Greyser and Seth Schulman

When the XFL professional football league debuted on February 3, 2001, it generated a Nielsen rating of 10.1, higher than any nationally televised program in a Saturday evening time slot. The next week, ratings plummeted, and by week nine the XFL game earned the title... View Details

Keywords: Advertising; Forecasting and Prediction; Product Positioning; Consumer Behavior; Product Development; Culture; Commercialization

April 2000
Case

Financing of Project Achieve, The (A)

By: Mihir A. Desai

An entrepreneur is forced to analyze the tradeoffs between different equity providers through a detailed analysis of venture financing terms and cash flow forecasts. The founder of a Web-based IMS for schools must negotiate a term sheet, determine funding needs, value... View Details

Keywords: Business Startups; Forecasting and Prediction; Venture Capital; Cash Flow; Equity; Negotiation Deal; Valuation

1998
Journal Article

Ford's Model-T: Pricing over the Product Life Cycle

By: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell

The pricing decisions monopolistic firms make over time are determined to a large extent by the complex interplay of two distinct sets of elements: demand- and supply-based considerations. Demand factors include the possibilities of (a) exercising dynamic price... View Details

Keywords: Experience and Expertise; Decisions; Forecasting and Prediction; Cost; Price; Information; Demand and Consumers; Monopoly; Product; Sales; Complexity; Auto Industry