Forecasting and Prediction - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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October 1993 (Revised February 1995)
Case

Dendrite International

By: Frank V. Cespedes and Marie Bell

Dendrite International is a $23 million (1992 revenues) supplier of sales automation software to pharmaceuticals companies in Europe, Japan, and the United States. The firm's strategy has depended on being a full-service supplier to multinational firms. Impending... View Details

Keywords: Accounting Audits; Cost vs Benefits; Forecasting and Prediction; Marketing Strategy; Risk and Uncertainty; Sales; Competitive Advantage; Information Technology Industry; Japan; Europe; United States

2016
Working Paper

The Impact of Supplier Inventory Service Level on Retailer Demand

By: Nathan Craig, Nicole DeHoratius and Ananth Raman

To set inventory service levels, suppliers must understand how changes in inventory service level affect demand. We build on prior research, which uses analytical models and laboratory experiments to study the impact of a supplier's service level on demand from... View Details

Keywords: Customer Satisfaction; Forecasting and Prediction; Learning; Consumer Behavior; Service Delivery; Performance Expectations; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Apparel and Accessories Industry

June 2024
Teaching Note

Roku 2021

By: David B. Yoffie

Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 721-480. This case is used to explore the strategic concept of "look forward, reason back." Roku in 2021 is trying to figure out the future of television and streaming media. Students are asked to provide a vision for television and... View Details

Keywords: Technology; Television Entertainment; Forecasting and Prediction; Decision Choices and Conditions; Strategy; Strategic Planning; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Media and Broadcasting Industry

August 1993 (Revised April 1998)
Case

Filene's Basement

By: David E. Bell and Dinny Starr

Filene's Basement is in the process of deciding where, and if, to locate two new stores in its new Chicago area of operations. The existing Chicago area stores have been performing well, however, management is concerned with over saturation of the market. At the time... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Growth Management; Marketing Strategy; Market Entry and Exit; Business Processes

April 1991 (Revised October 1993)
Case

Cat Fight in the Pet Food Industry (A)

By: David J. Collis

Describes the pet food industry in the mid-eighties prior to the breakout of a major competitive battle as manufacturers fight for share. Illustrates how when there are benefits to play in multiple markets, competitors will take action in one market to preserve their... View Details

Keywords: Cost vs Benefits; Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Markets; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Ownership Stake; Competition; Corporate Strategy; Food and Beverage Industry

Research Summary

Overview

The overarching goal of my research is to produce works that are influential and informative to both academics and practitioners in the field of operations management. To accomplish this, I collaborate with industry partners who provide knowledge about their field,... View Details

December 1998 (Revised March 1999)
Case

Guangdong Nowada Group, The

By: Ray A. Goldberg, Carin-Isabel Knoop and Anthony St. George

In late 1998, 38-year-old He Boquan, CEO of the Guangdong Nowada Group, a health beverage producer, needs to decide how to fund his company's growth and ambition to become China's number one domestic health beverage producer by 2002. A consultants study revealed that... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Capital; Foreign Direct Investment; Growth and Development; Leadership Style; Management Skills; Negotiation Offer; Competitive Strategy; Food and Beverage Industry; China

June 2018
Supplement

Valuing Snap After the IPO Quiet Period (B)

By: Marco Di Maggio and Benjamin C. Esty

Analyzes Snap’s value and analyst recommendations following the events described in the (A) case. View Details

June 2018 (Revised April 2021)
Case

Valuing Snap After the IPO Quiet Period (A)

By: Marco Di Maggio, Benjamin C. Esty and Gregory Saldutte

Snap, the disappearing message app, went public at $17 per share on March 2, 2017, making its two 20-something founders the youngest self-made billionaires in the country. Over the next three weeks, 14 analysts made investment recommendations on Snap: two with buy... View Details

12 Feb 2008
First Look

First Look: February 12, 2007

forecasts to align investors' expectations with their own, we predict that managers increased the quality of their earnings forecasts during the 1990s in order to keep pace... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

September 1995 (Revised April 1999)
Case

Exporting American Culture

By: Joseph L. Badaracco Jr. and Jerry Useem

A large entertainment company, extensively criticized for producing violent, offensive, and anti-social material, is considering whether to sell its material to a semi-illegal operation that is beaming satellite TV into Turkey. The opportunity raises many questions... View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Media; Business and Community Relations; Opportunities; Social Issues; Media and Broadcasting Industry

2010
Working Paper

Overconfidence by Bayesian Rational Agents

By: Eric Van den Steen

This paper derives two mechanisms through which Bayesian-rational individuals with differing priors will tend to be relatively overconfident about their estimates and predictions, in the sense of overestimating the precision of these estimates. The intuition behind one... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Measurement and Metrics; Game Theory; Forecasting and Prediction

June 2018
Supplement

Valuing Snap After the IPO Quiet Period (C)

By: Marco Di Maggio, Benjamin C. Esty and Gregory Saldutte

Analyzes Snap’s value and analyst recommendations following the events described in the (B) case. View Details

January 2000 (Revised May 2007)
Case

Dressen

By: Thomas R. Piper and Jeremy Cott

Divisional management must decide whether to support a leveraged buyout by a private equity group and, if so, what percent of ownership should go to the various partners involved. The appropriateness of the financing structure and the value of the equity depend on the... View Details

Keywords: Leveraged Buyouts; Capital Structure; Valuation; Ownership Stake; Forecasting and Prediction

July 2005 (Revised June 2006)
Case

Ryanair Holdings plc

Examines the valuation of an Irish airline that reported its first decline in net income in 2004 and saw a 30% stock price drop on the news. Ryanair is a low-cost, low-fare airline headquartered in Dublin, Ireland, operating over 200 routes in 20 countries. The company... View Details

Keywords: Strategy; International Accounting; Analysis; Valuation; Air Transportation; Forecasting and Prediction; Finance; Air Transportation Industry; Dublin

13 Apr 2010
First Look

First Look: April 13

the largest financial services providers in the U.S., indicate that customer sensitivity to service time varies widely and predictably with observable market characteristics. In turn, we find evidence that... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

Forthcoming
Article

Reflexivity in Credit Markets

By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson and Lawrence J. Jin

Reflexivity is the idea that investors' biased beliefs affect market outcomes and that market outcomes in turn affect investors’ future biases. We develop a dynamic behavioral model of the credit cycle featuring this two-way feedback loop. Investors form beliefs about... View Details

Keywords: Reflexivity; Attitudes; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Investment; Credit

August 2001 (Revised May 2002)
Case

Worldzap

By: Rohit Deshpande, Carin-Isabel Knoop, Suma Raju and David Kiron

In February 2001, the CEO of a new technology start-up had to decide how to present his firm's value proposition to future clients, customers, and business partners. The technology allowed distribution of full-motion video clips of sports highlights to "third... View Details

Keywords: Business Startups; Information Technology; Marketing Strategy; Distribution; Technology Adoption; Forecasting and Prediction; Value Creation; Information Technology Industry; Sports Industry; Europe

July 2014
Article

Accounting for Crises

By: Venky Nagar and Gwen Yu

We provide among the first empirical evidence consistent with recent macro global-game crisis models, which show that the precision of public signals can coordinate crises (e.g., Angeletos and Werning, 2006; Morris and Shin, 2002, 2003). In these models,... View Details

Keywords: Corporate Disclosure; Mathematical Methods; Game Theory; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction; Accounting; Financial Crisis

Find at Harvard

05 Feb 2008
First Look

First Look: February 5, 2008

No abstract is available at this time. Download the paper: http://www.hbs.edu/research/pdf/08-057.pdf Managing Functional Biases in Organizational Forecasts: A Case Study of Consensus Forecasting in Supply Chain Planning Authors:Rogelio... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

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