Prediction - Publications - Faculty & Research

10 Sep 2008
Research & Ideas

Long-Tail Economics? Give Me Blockbusters!

development projects, some with predictable sales results, others more risky. The former pay for the company's daily bread and butter and fund R&D on future blockbusters. Inverness Medical Innovations, for example, is following... View Details

Keywords: by John Quelch; Entertainment & Recreation; Pharmaceutical

01 Dec 2008
News

NYC Club Hosts Nonprofits

general expectation that in a down economy many donors of necessity will be less generous just when demand for services from nonprofits will be on the upswing. As a result, several panelists predicted that many smaller nonprofits will... View Details

17 Sep 2013
First Look

First Look: September 17

impact people's feelings about their decisions. We compare post-choice satisfaction from choices made by mind wandering to reason based choices and randomly assigned outcomes. Participants chose a poster by mind wandering or deliberating-or were randomly assigned a... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

June 2019 (Revised September 2024)
Case

Parrot: Navigating the Nascent Drone Industry

By: Rory M. McDonald, Emilie Billaud and Vincent Dessain

In 2018, Henri Seydoux, CEO and Founder of Parrot, believed that his company was at an inflection point in its history. Parrot had been a European leader in consumer electronics since the 1990s, first developing Bluetooth kits for cars before moving on to electronic... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Disruption; Entrepreneurship; Corporate Strategy; Technological Innovation; Leading Change; Competitive Advantage; Information Technology; Competitive Strategy; Consumer Products Industry; Electronics Industry; Entertainment and Recreation Industry; Motion Pictures and Video Industry; Technology Industry; Video Game Industry; Europe; France; Paris

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June 2018 (Revised April 2021)
Supplement

Valuing Snap After the IPO Quiet Period

By: Benjamin C. Esty, Marco Di Maggio and Greg Saldutte

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June 2018
Supplement

Valuing Snap After the IPO Quiet Period (B)

By: Marco Di Maggio and Benjamin C. Esty

Analyzes Snap’s value and analyst recommendations following the events described in the (A) case. View Details

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June 2018 (Revised April 2021)
Case

Valuing Snap After the IPO Quiet Period (A)

By: Marco Di Maggio, Benjamin C. Esty and Gregory Saldutte

Snap, the disappearing message app, went public at $17 per share on March 2, 2017, making its two 20-something founders the youngest self-made billionaires in the country. Over the next three weeks, 14 analysts made investment recommendations on Snap: two with buy... View Details

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05 May 2009
First Look

First Look: May 5, 2009

foreign countries, the model predicts growth in the number of source-country firms engaging in foreign direct investment, growth in the size of affiliates that are active in reforming countries both before and after the tariff reduction,... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

2024
Working Paper

Human-Computer Interactions in Demand Forecasting and Labor Scheduling Decisions

By: Caleb Kwon, Ananth Raman and Jorge Tamayo

We investigate whether corporate officers should grant managers discretion to override AI-driven demand forecasts and labor scheduling tools. Analyzing five years of administrative data from a large grocery retailer using such an AI tool, encompassing over 500 stores,... View Details

Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction; Working Conditions; Performance Productivity

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October 2002
Article

Differences of Opinion and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns

By: Karl B. Diether, Christopher J. Malloy and Anna Scherbina

We provide evidence that stocks with higher dispersion in analysts' earnings forecasts earn lower future returns than otherwise similar stocks. This effect is most pronounced in small stocks, and stocks that have performed poorly over the past year. Interpreting... View Details

Keywords: Stocks; Forecasting and Prediction; Price; Valuation; Investment Return

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21 Jan 2009
First Look

First Look: January 21, 2009

misperceptions: People predict that they will behave more ethically than they actually do, and when evaluating past (un)ethical behavior, they believe they behaved more ethically than they actually did. We use the "want/should"... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

18 Mar 2009
Research & Ideas

Marketing After the Recession

the result will be continuing downward pressure on prices. Economic recovery will not allow producers to let up on tightening cost controls and improving productivity. Know your lead indicators. Every good marketer knows the specific indicators, macro or micro, that... View Details

Keywords: by John Quelch; Retail

27 Jul 2019
Op-Ed

Does Facebook's Business Model Threaten Our Elections?

platform. Advertisers used that data to create psychographic profiles of potential customers that went beyond mere demographics to give insights into what they like and value. Studies have found that with just 10 “likes” an algorithm can View Details

Keywords: by George Riedel

28 Jun 2011
First Look

First Look: June 28

straightforward processing to update prices, while the other set requires more complicated analyses to incorporate the same piece of information into prices. We document substantial return predictability from the set of easy-to-analyze... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

05 Jul 2006
First Look

First Look: July 5, 2006

predictive and prescriptive implications, this theory contributes to the general notion that pricing might affect as much as capture perceived value. Paper: http://www.hbs.edu/research/pdf/06-055.pdf Capital Structure with Risky Foreign... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

Portrait Project

Arnaud Karsenti

desktop is up and running. Welcome to the life of a global entrepreneur. What are you going to do today? The best way to predict the future is to create it. When I look towards my future, I see a life of constant creation: the creation of... View Details

12 Feb 2019
First Look

New Research and Ideas, February 12, 2019

Joy—and What Will By: Whillans, A.V. Abstract— No abstract available. Publisher's link: https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=55600 forthcoming Emotion Common Variants of the Oxytocin Receptor Gene Do Not Predict the Positive... View Details

Keywords: Dina Gerdeman

September 2002
Case

Align Technology, Inc.: Matching Manufacturing Capacity to Sales Demand

By: H. Kent Bowen and Jonathan P Groberg

Align Technology is a four-year-old medical products company that has invented a new product requiring new manufacturing processes. Demand for the new product has grown more slowly than initial forecasts predicted, and the cost structure is preventing the company from... View Details

Keywords: Health Care and Treatment; Collaborative Innovation and Invention; Problems and Challenges; Product; Forecasting and Prediction; Marketing Strategy; Sales; Demand and Consumers; Production; Health Industry

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February 2024
Teaching Note

AB InBev: Brewing Up Forecasts during COVID-19

By: Mark Egan and C. Fritz Foley

Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 224-020. In July 2021, the CEO of AB InBev's European operations and his team strategized to position the company for success post-pandemic. As the world's largest beer company, boasting over 500 brands, revenue of $46 billion, and a... View Details