Risk and Uncertainty - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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2017
Working Paper

Economic Uncertainty and Earnings Management

By: Luke C.D. Stein and Charles C.Y. Wang

In the presence of managerial short-termism and asymmetric information about skill and effort provision, firms may opportunistically shift earnings from uncertain to more certain times. We document empirically that when financial markets are less certain about a firm's... View Details

Keywords: Discretionary Accruals; Uncertainty; Implied Volatility; Earnings Response Coefficient; Risk and Uncertainty; Earnings Management; Financial Markets

February 2016 (Revised February 2017)
Case

Alvogen

By: Daniel Isenberg and William Kerr

Alvogen is a young Icelandic generic pharmaceutical company, whose CEO believes that his global strategy will give them an edge in this competitive industry.
Robert Wessman, Alvogen’s CEO, was also previously the CEO of Actavis, another Icelandic generics... View Details

Keywords: Pharmaceutical Companies; Generic Drugs; Entrepreneurship; Globalization; Risk and Uncertainty; Pharmaceutical Industry; Iceland

January 2016 (Revised April 2017)
Case

The Galaxy Dividend Income Growth Fund's Option Investment Strategies

By: W. Carl Kester

This case is designed to provide an elementary introduction to options and option pricing for beginning finance students. Analysis of the case requires students to compare the prices of put and call options with various exercise prices and maturity dates on two... View Details

Keywords: Options; Option Contract; Option Pricing; Derivatives; Mutual Funds; Call Options; Put Options; Stock Options; Risk and Uncertainty; Volatility; Financial Services Industry; United States

Article

The Cost of Capital for Alternative Investments

By: Jakub W. Jurek and Erik Stafford

Traditional risk factor models indicate that hedge funds capture pre-fee alphas of 6% to 10% per annum over the period from 1996 to 2012. At the same time, the hedge fund return series is not reliably distinguishable from the returns of mechanical S&P 500 put-writing... View Details

Keywords: Hedge Funds; Required Returns; Downside Risk; Index Options; Investment Funds; Cost of Capital; Investment Return; Risk and Uncertainty; Financial Services Industry

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August 2015
Article

Poultry in Motion: A Study of International Trade Finance Practices

By: Pol Antràs and C. Fritz Foley

This paper analyzes the financing terms that support international trade and sheds light on how these terms shape the impact of economic shocks on trade. Analysis of transaction-level data from a U.S.-based exporter of frozen and refrigerated food products, primarily... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; International Finance; Financing and Loans; Trade

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June 2015 (Revised August 2018)
Case

American Electric Power: Facing the Challenges of Distributed Generation

By: Richard H.K. Vietor and Hilary White

American Electric Power, like most utilities in the USA, is currently exposed to distributed generation and the problem of net-metering. Solar installations in particular have been heavily subsidized, by the state and by regulation, which does not allow grid operators... View Details

April 2015
Article

Anxious and Egocentric: How Specific Emotions Influence Perspective Taking

By: Andrew R. Todd, Matthias Forstmann, Pascal Burgmer, Alison Wood Brooks and Adam D. Galinsky

People frequently feel anxious. Although prior research has extensively studied how feeling anxious shapes intrapsychic aspects of cognition, much less is known about how anxiety affects interpersonal aspects of cognition. Here, we examine the influence of incidental... View Details

Keywords: Anxiety; Egocentrism; Emotion; Perspective Taking; Risk and Uncertainty; Perspective; Emotions

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Article

The Allure of Unknown Outcomes: Exploring the Role of Uncertainty in the Preference for Potential

By: Daniella Kupor, Zakary L. Tormala and Michael I. Norton

Influence practitioners often highlight a target's achievements (e.g., "she is the city's top-rated chef"), but recent research reveals that highlighting a target's potential (e.g., "she could become the city's top-rated chef") can be more effective. We examine whether... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Forecasting and Prediction; Performance Evaluation

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October 2014 (Revised June 2016)
Case

NuScale Power—the Future of Small Modular Reactors

By: Richard Vietor

NuScale Power, an entrepreneurial venture in Portland, Oregon, has designed the leading modular nuclear reactor in the United States. This Reactor will be the safest and simplest ever built. Started in 2007 as an entrepreneurial venture, the company is now two years... View Details

Keywords: Nuclear; Power; Technology; Risk; Energy; Information Technology; Entrepreneurship; Risk and Uncertainty; Energy Industry

2016
Working Paper

Signaling without Certification: The Critical Role of Civil Society Scrutiny

By: Susan A. Kayser, John W. Maxwell and Michael W. Toffel

In response to stakeholders' growing concerns, companies are joining voluntary environmental programs to signal their superior environmental management capabilities. In contrast to the literature's focus on certification programs that require a third-party audit, we... View Details

Keywords: United Nations; Labor Standards; Supplier Relationship; Procurement; Sustainability; Sustainability Management; Quality And Safety; Risk; Globalization; Globalized Markets and Industries; Governance; Working Conditions; Supply Chain Management; Supply Chain; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Quality; Risk and Uncertainty; Safety; Reputation

June 2014 (Revised March 2016)
Teaching Note

Starbucks Coffee Company: Transformation and Renewal

By: Nancy F. Koehn

June 2014
Case

Starbucks Coffee Company: Transformation and Renewal

By: Nancy F. Koehn, Kelly McNamara, Nora N. Khan and Elizabeth Legris

Starbucks Coffee Company: Transformation and Renewal analyzes the turnaround and reconstruction of Starbucks Coffee Company from 2008 to 2014 as led by CEO and co-founder Howard Schultz. The case offers executives and students an opportunity to examine in depth how... View Details

2014
Article

Psychological Safety: The History, Renaissance, and Future of an Interpersonal Construct

By: Amy C. Edmondson and Zhike Lei

Psychological safety describes people's perceptions of the consequences of taking interpersonal risks in a particular context such as a workplace. First explored by pioneering organizational scholars in the 1960s, psychological safety experienced a renaissance starting... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Safety; Groups and Teams

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January 2014 (Revised June 2014)
Supplement

23andMe: Genetic Testing for Consumers (B)

By: John A. Quelch and Margaret L. Rodriguez

Following the FDA's letter in November 2013, which ordered 23andMe to cease sales of its DNA test kits, observers wondered how co-founder and CEO, Anne Wojcicki, would guide the company in the presence of uncertainty. View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Genetics; Crisis Management; Health Care and Treatment; Product Development; Business and Government Relations; Biotechnology Industry; Consumer Products Industry; United States

2013
Book

Fortune Tellers: The Story of America's First Economic Forecasters

By: Walter A. Friedman

The period leading up to the Great Depression witnessed the rise of the economic forecasters, pioneers who sought to use the tools of science to predict the future, with the aim of profiting from their forecasts. This book chronicles the lives and careers of the men... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting And Prediction; Economic History; Economics; History; Risk and Uncertainty; United States

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October 2013 (Revised November 2016)
Case

Carbon Engineering

By: Joseph B. Lassiter III and Sid Misra

Dr. David Keith, President of Carbon Engineering, a company based in Calgary, Alberta, is commercializing a technology to capture carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere. The company plans to market the captured CO2 to produce low carbon transportation fuels in... View Details

2013
Book

Blockbusters: Hit-making, Risk-taking, and the Big Business of Entertainment

By: Anita Elberse

What's behind the phenomenal success of entertainment businesses such as Warner Bros., Marvel Enterprises, and the NFL—along with such stars as Jay-Z, Lady Gaga, and LeBron James? Which strategies give leaders in film, television, music, publishing, and sports an edge... View Details

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July 2013 (Revised October 2014)
Case

Value Retail: Opportunities for European Expansion

By: Arthur I Segel

Scott Malkin, CEO of Value Retail, a developer and operator of European outlet villages serving luxury brands, is planning on developing a 18,503 m2 open-air outlet village to be built 98 kilometers south of Milan on land he was about to acquire for 7.26 million lira.... View Details

Keywords: Acquisition; Investment; Risk and Uncertainty; Expansion; Retail Industry; Milan

May 2013
Teaching Plan

High Wire Act: Credit Suisse and Contingent Capital

By: Clayton Rose and David Lane

Late in 2010, Credit Suisse CEO Brady Dougan and his team considered whether or not to issue contingent capital, which Swiss regulators would require by 2019. They faced a number of substantial issues, including: Would contingent capital actually work as conceptualized... View Details

Keywords: Financial Institutions; Capital Markets; Financial Crisis; Decision Choices and Conditions; Leadership; International Finance; Financial Liquidity; Risk and Uncertainty; Competitive Strategy; Financial Services Industry; Switzerland

2013
Working Paper

Do Strict Capital Requirements Raise the Cost of Capital? Banking Regulation and the Low Risk Anomaly

By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler

Minimum capital requirements are a central tool of banking regulation. Setting them balances a number of factors, including any effects on the cost of capital and in turn the rates available to borrowers. Standard theory predicts that, in perfect and efficient capital... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Cost of Capital; Capital Markets; Banks and Banking; Banking Industry; United States

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