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August 2024 (Revised November 2024)
Case

Mercado Bitcoin: M&A, IPO, or Series B?

By: Raymond Kluender, Emanuele Colonnelli, Sabrina T. Howell and Karina Souza

In April 2021, Brazilian cryptocurrency platform Mercado Bitcoin had to decide how to scale: go public, M&A with a bank, or take a VC big check. In a highly volatile market, Roberto Dagnoni, chairman of the board, viewed the unprecedent crypto momentum as a window of... View Details

2025
Working Paper

Narrative AI and the Human-AI Oversight Paradox in Evaluating Early-Stage Innovations

By: Jacqueline N. Lane, Léonard Boussioux, Charles Ayoubi, Ying Hao Chen, Camila Lin, Rebecca Spens, Pooja Wagh and Pei-Hsin Wang

Do AI-generated narrative explanations enhance human oversight or diminish it? We investigate this question through a field experiment with 228 evaluators screening 48 early-stage innovations under three conditions: human-only, black-box AI recommendations without... View Details

Keywords: Large Language Models; AI and Machine Learning; Innovation and Invention; Decision Making

2024
Article

Neyman Meets Causal Machine Learning: Experimental Evaluation of Individualized Treatment Rules

By: Michael Lingzhi Li and Kosuke Imai

A century ago, Neyman showed how to evaluate the efficacy of treatment using a randomized experiment under a minimal set of assumptions. This classical repeated sampling framework serves as a basis of routine experimental analyses conducted by today’s scientists across... View Details

Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Research

2024
Working Paper

People, Practices, and Productivity: A Review of New Advances in Personnel Economics

By: Mitchell Hoffman and Christopher T. Stanton

This chapter surveys recent advances in personnel economics. We begin by presenting evidence showing substantial and persistent productivity variation among workers in the same roles. We discuss new research on incentives and compensation; hiring practices; the... View Details

Keywords: Employees; Labor

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August 2024
Case

Quickmart: Sustaining Growth in a Challenging Economic Environment

By: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell and Kuria Kamau

In July 2023, Peter Kang’iri, the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Quickmart, Kenya’s second-largest retail chain, sat in his Nairobi office reviewing the company’s first half financial results before the weekly executive committee (EXCO) meeting. The company was in... View Details

Keywords: Distribution; Supply Chain; Logistics; Business Strategy; Expansion; Business Earnings; Growth and Development Strategy; Strategic Planning; Retail Industry; Food and Beverage Industry; Africa; Kenya; Nairobi

2024
Working Paper

The Consequences of Export Controls in Target Countries

By: Xueyue Liu, Yu Liu and Jaya Y. Wen

Export controls are a common instrument of national security, but their economic consequences are not well understood. This paper evaluates how these controls affect firm performance and adaptation in targeted countries. We use variation in a 2007 US policy,... View Details

Keywords: National Security; Trade; Business and Government Relations; Policy; Performance Productivity; Adaptation

August 2024
Article

The Labor Market Effects of Loan Guarantee Programs

By: Jean-Noël Barrot, Thorsten Martin, Julien Sauvagnat and Boris Vallée

We investigate the labor market effects of a loan guarantee program targeting French SMEs during the financial crisis. Exploiting differences in regional treatment intensity in a border discontinuity design, we uncover a central trade-off for such interventions. While... View Details

Keywords: Labor; Financial Crisis; Policy; France

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Working Paper

The Returns to Skills During the Pandemic: Experimental Evidence from Uganda

By: Livia Alfonsi, Vittorio Bassi, Imran Rasul and Elena Spadini

The Covid-19 pandemic represents one of the most significant labor market shocks to the world economy in recent times. We present evidence from a field experiment to understand whether and why skilled and unskilled workers were differentially impacted by the shock, in... View Details

Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic; System Shocks; Labor; Competency and Skills; Development Economics; Uganda

July 2024
Case

The Voice Wars Continues 2024: Hey Google vs. Alexa vs. Siri vs. ChatGPT

By: David B. Yoffie and Sarah von Bargen

In 2024, the Voice War was transforming from a relatively simple index-based technology system, which relied on a list of commands and answers, to a generative AI system, which offered the promise to enable free flowing conversations between people and machines. The... View Details

Keywords: AI and Machine Learning; Competition; Technological Innovation; Technology Industry

July 2024 (Revised January 2025)
Case

Rockefeller Philanthropy Advisors: Bringing Systematic Investment to Philanthropy

By: Lauren Cohen, Hao Gao, Alexander Bischoff and Sophia Pan

Melissa Berman, CEO of Rockefeller Philanthropy Advisors (RPA), evaluated her client’s philanthropy project and its mediocre performance. RPA was a segment of the Rockefeller Family Office’s Philanthropy Department, becoming an independent charity in 2002. Consistently... View Details

July 2024
Case

Jacqueline Cook at Vendasta: Debating an IPO

By: Reza Satchu, Tom Quinn and Andrew Kosc

In May 2021, after a surge in demand for digital services that prompted high valuations for startups across the Canadian tech sector, Saskatchewan-based Vendasta entered the final stages of the initial public offering (IPO) process. COO Jacqueline Cook had invested her... View Details

July 2024
Case

Wizards of the Coast and Magic: The Rebounding

By: Boris Groysberg and Tom Quinn

This case traces the history and growth of the Magic: The Gathering trading card game. From its development in 1993 by tiny studio Wizards of the Coast, to Wizards’ acquisition by toy giant Hasbro in 1999, to its evolution into a billion-dollar brand in 2023,... View Details

July 2024
Case

Knowledge-Enabled Financial Advice: Digital Transformation at Edward Jones

By: Lauren Cohen, Richard Ryffel, Grace Headinger and Sophia Pan

Edward Jones, a wealth management advisory firm that prided itself on its interpersonal connections and face-to-face interactions, was eager to augment their services with AI capabilities. Built on 1-to-1 close-knit relationships, the firm had more than 15,000 offices... View Details

July 2024
Article

Chatbots and Mental Health: Insights into the Safety of Generative AI

By: Julian De Freitas, Ahmet Kaan Uğuralp, Zeliha Uğuralp and Stefano Puntoni

Chatbots are now able to engage in sophisticated conversations with consumers. Due to the ‘black box’ nature of the algorithms, it is impossible to predict in advance how these conversations will unfold. Behavioral research provides little insight into potential safety... View Details

Keywords: Autonomy; Chatbots; New Technology; Brand Crises; Mental Health; Large Language Model; AI and Machine Learning; Behavior; Well-being; Technological Innovation; Ethics

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2024
Chapter

Corporations as the Central Institutions of Society

By: Joseph L. Badaracco

Mark Twain observed that, “Prediction is very difficult—particularly when it involves the future,” and he was right. One way to reduce the risk of becoming an infamous forecaster—like the experts who told us the Internet would quickly collapse, that Apple would never... View Details

Keywords: Trends; Business and Government Relations; Organizations; Power and Influence; Society

July–August 2024
Article

Doing More with Less: Overcoming Ineffective Long-Term Targeting Using Short-Term Signals

By: Ta-Wei Huang and Eva Ascarza

Firms are increasingly interested in developing targeted interventions for customers with the best response, which requires identifying differences in customer sensitivity, typically through the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation. In theory, to... View Details

Keywords: Long-run Targeting; Heterogeneous Treatment Effect; Statistical Surrogacy; Customer Churn; Field Experiments; Consumer Behavior; Customer Focus and Relationships; AI and Machine Learning; Marketing Strategy

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July 2024
Article

How Artificial Intelligence Constrains Human Experience

By: A. Valenzuela, S. Puntoni, D. Hoffman, N. Castelo, J. De Freitas, B. Dietvorst, C. Hildebrand, Y.E. Huh, R. Meyer, M. Sweeney, S. Talaifar, G. Tomaino and K. Wertenbroch

Many consumption decisions and experiences are digitally mediated. As a consequence, consumer behavior is increasingly the joint product of human psychology and ubiquitous algorithms (Braun et al. 2024; cf. Melumad et al. 2020). The coming of age of Large Language... View Details

Keywords: Large Language Model; User Experience; AI and Machine Learning; Consumer Behavior; Technology Adoption; Risk and Uncertainty; Cost vs Benefits

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2024
Working Paper

How Inflation Expectations De-Anchor: The Role of Selective Memory Cues

By: Nicola Gennaioli, Marta Leva, Raphael Schoenle and Andrei Shleifer

In a model of memory and selective recall, household inflation expectations remain rigid when inflation is anchored but exhibit sharp instability during inflation surges, as similarity prompts retrieval of forgotten high-inflation experiences. Using data from the New... View Details

Keywords: Cognition and Thinking; Inflation and Deflation; Personal Finance

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July 2024
Case

Replika AI: Alleviating Loneliness (A)

By: Shikhar Ghosh and Shweta Bagai

Eugenia Kuyda launched Replika AI in 2017 as an empathetic digital companion to combat loneliness and provide emotional support. The platform surged in popularity during the COVID-19 pandemic, offering non-judgmental support to isolated users. By 2023, Replika boasted... View Details

Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Ethics; Health Pandemics; AI and Machine Learning; Well-being; Technology Industry

2024
Working Paper

The Golden Revolving Door

By: Ling Cen, Lauren Cohen, Jing Wu and Fan Zhang

Using both the onset of the US-China trade war in 2018 and the most recent Russia-Ukraine war and associated trade tensions, we show a counterintuitive pattern in global trade. Namely, while the average firm trading with these nations significantly decreases their... View Details

Keywords: Trade; Business and Government Relations; International Relations

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