Publications

23 Oct 2018
First Look

New Research and Ideas, October 23, 2018

researchers to test and build new theories at a more granular level. Publisher's link: https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=55151 forthcoming American Economic Review Beliefs about Gender By: View Details

Keywords: Dina Gerdeman

Forthcoming
Article

Imagining the Future: Memory, Simulation and Beliefs

By: Pedro Bordalo, Giovanni Burro, Katherine B. Coffman, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer

How do people form beliefs about novel risks, with which they have little or no experience? Motivated by survey data on beliefs about Covid we collected in 2020, we build a model based on the psychology of selective memory. When a person thinks about an event,... View Details

Keywords: Expectations; Memory; COVID-19 Pandemic; Risk and Uncertainty; Cognition and Thinking

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12 Feb 2019
First Look

New Research and Ideas, February 12, 2019

have important benefits in workplace settings. Publisher's link: https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=55598 Diagnostic Bubbles By: Bordalo, Pedro, Nicola Gennaioli,... View Details

Keywords: Dina Gerdeman

2024
Working Paper

Finance Without Exotic Risk

By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Rafael La Porta and Andrei Shleifer

We address the joint hypothesis problem in cross-sectional asset pricing by using measured analyst expectations of earnings growth. We construct a firm-level measure of Expectations Based Returns (EBRs) that uses analyst forecast errors and revisions and shuts down any... View Details

Keywords: Investment Return; Financial Markets; Behavioral Finance; Risk and Uncertainty

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March 2019
Article

Beliefs about Gender

By: Pedro Bordalo, Katherine Baldiga Coffman, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer

We conduct laboratory experiments that explore how gender stereotypes shape beliefs about ability of oneself and others in different categories of knowledge. The data reveal two patterns. First, men’s and women’s beliefs about both oneself and others exceed observed... View Details

Keywords: Performance Evaluation; Perspective; Prejudice and Bias; Gender

November 2016
Article

Stereotypes

By: Pedro Bordalo, Katherine Baldiga Coffman, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer

We present a model of stereotypes based on Kahneman and Tversky's representativeness heuristic. A decision maker assesses a target group by overweighting its representative types, which we formally define to be the types that occur more frequently in that group than in... View Details

Keywords: Prejudice and Bias

September 2021
Article

Diagnostic Bubbles

By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon and Andrei Shleifer

We introduce diagnostic expectations into a standard setting of price formation in which investors learn about the fundamental value of an asset and trade it. We study the interaction of diagnostic expectations with two well-known mechanisms: learning from prices and... View Details

Keywords: Bubble; Speculation; Diagnostic Expectations; Price Bubble; Mathematical Methods

2018
Working Paper

Diagnostic Bubbles

By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon and Andrei Shleifer

We introduce diagnostic expectations into a standard setting of price formation in which investors learn about the fundamental value of an asset and trade it. We study the interaction of diagnostic expectations with two well-known mechanisms: learning from prices and... View Details

Keywords: Bubbles; Price Bubble; Mathematical Methods

22 Nov 2016
First Look

November 22, 2016

November 2016 Quarterly Journal of Economics Stereotypes By: Bordalo, Pedro, Katherine Baldiga Coffman, Nicola View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

2020
Working Paper

Older People Are Less Pessimistic About the Health Risks of COVID-19

By: Pedro Bordalo, Katherine B. Coffman, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer

A central question for understanding behaviour during the COVID-19 pandemic, at both the individual and collective levels, is how people perceive the health and economic risks they face. We conducted a survey of over 1,500 Americans from May 6–13, 2020, to understand... View Details

Keywords: Health Pandemics; Risk and Uncertainty; Perception; Age

2023
Working Paper

How People Use Statistics

By: Pedro Bordalo, John J. Conlon, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon and Andrei Shleifer

We document two new facts about the distributions of answers in famous statistical problems: they are i) multi-modal and ii) unstable with respect to irrelevant changes in the problem. We offer a model in which, when solving a problem, people represent each hypothesis... View Details

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Microeconomics; Mathematical Methods; Behavioral Finance