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- February 2025
- Tutorial
Preparing Business Leaders for an Era of Climate Instability: Understanding and Managing Physical Climate Risk
By: Michael W. Toffel and Spencer Glendon
In this compelling video, Spencer Glendon, founder of Probable Futures and Executive Fellow at Harvard Business School, describes the profound implications of climate change for businesses, the economy, and societies around the world. Drawing from his background in... View Details
Keywords: Risk; Uncertainty; Modeling; Climate Change; Adaptation; Risk and Uncertainty; Risk Management
- 2025
- Article
Statistical Inference for Heterogeneous Treatment Effects Discovered by Generic Machine Learning in Randomized Experiments
By: Kosuke Imai and Michael Lingzhi Li
Researchers are increasingly turning to machine learning (ML) algorithms to investigate causal heterogeneity in randomized experiments. Despite their promise, ML algorithms may fail to accurately ascertain heterogeneous treatment effects under practical settings with... View Details
- November–December 2024
- Article
Why Employees Quit
By: Ethan Bernstein, Michael B. Horn and Bob Moesta
The so-called war for talent is still raging. But in that fight, employers continue to rely on the same hiring and retention strategies they’ve been using for decades. Why? Because they’ve been so focused on challenges such as poaching by industry rivals, competing in... View Details
- November 2024
- Case
Dr. Bombay Ice Cream
By: William R. Kerr, Alexis Brownell and Michael Liu
This case examines the creation, launch, and rapid growth of Dr. Bombay Ice Cream, a joint venture between Happi Co., a consumer packaged goods incubator, and entertainment mogul Snoop Dogg, with his son, Cordell Broadus. The brand was inspired by a Bored Ape Yacht... View Details
- November 2024
- Article
Perceptions About Monetary Policy
By: Michael D. Bauer, Carolin Pflueger and Adi Sunderam
We estimate perceptions about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy rule from panel data on professional forecasts of interest rates and macroeconomic conditions. The perceived dependence of the federal funds rate on economic conditions varies substantially over time,... View Details
- October 2024
- Article
Medicare Part D Protected-Class Policy Is Associated with Lower Drug Rebates
By: Pragya Kakani, Michael Anne Kyle, Amitabh Chandra and Luca Maini
Medicare Part D does not allow plans to exclude drugs in six protected classes from their formularies, which may limit plans’ ability to negotiate rebates and lead to higher spending. We estimated the association between protected-class status, US-level estimated... View Details
- September–October 2024
- Article
Where Data-Driven Decision-Making Can Go Wrong
By: Michael Luca and Amy C. Edmondson
When considering internal data or the results of a study, often business leaders either take the evidence presented as gospel or dismiss it altogether. Both approaches are misguided. What leaders need to do instead is conduct rigorous discussions that assess any... View Details
- August 2024
- Case
Oculii
By: Andy Wu and Lucas Defilippo
It was a bright June day in 2016. Steven Hong, co-founder and COO of Oculii had just signed a letter of intent agreeing to a 51% stake acquisition by Nexteer Automotive, a global steering and driveline supplier company that developed advanced driver assistance systems... View Details
- 2024
- Article
Neyman Meets Causal Machine Learning: Experimental Evaluation of Individualized Treatment Rules
By: Michael Lingzhi Li and Kosuke Imai
A century ago, Neyman showed how to evaluate the efficacy of treatment using a randomized experiment under a minimal set of assumptions. This classical repeated sampling framework serves as a basis of routine experimental analyses conducted by today’s scientists across... View Details
- July 2024
- Case
Negotiating in a Hurricane: John Branca and the Michael Jackson Estate
By: James K. Sebenius and Alex Green
When the "King of Pop," Michael Jackson, unexpectedly died in 2009, he left behind an estate that was over $500 million in debt, with largely illiquid assets, and legions of creditors poised to begin to seize assets in as soon as 60 days. The task of managing Jackson’s... View Details
- July 2024 (Revised December 2024)
- Background Note
District Heating: An Overview
By: Willy Shih and Michael W. Toffel
This note provides an overview of district heating: systems in which central plants generate heat that is conveyed by steam or water through a set of insulated pipes to send heat to residential and/or commercial buildings. It describes key elements of the system (heat... View Details
- June 2024 (Revised February 2025)
- Case
Accounting for Loans at SoFi Technologies
By: Joseph Pacelli and Michael Norris
At the release of its first quarter earnings report on May 1, 2023, digital bank SoFi beat its earnings guidance by 25%. On May 2, Wedbush Securities analyst David Chiaverini issued a report downgrading the stock. A second downgrade followed from Chiaverini on May 15.... View Details
- June 2024 (Revised August 2024)
- Case
Hospital for Special Surgery: Returning to a New Normal? (A)
By: Robert S. Huckman, Michael Lingzhi Li and Camille Gregory
Early on the morning of April 27, 2020, Justin Oppenheimer stood outside the entrance to the lobby of the Hospital for Special Surgery (HSS) Pavilion Building with mixed emotions. On one hand, Oppenheimer, HSS’ Enterprise Chief Operating Officer and Chief Strategy... View Details
- May 2024 (Revised May 2024)
- Case
Market by Met Council: Revolutionizing Food Pantries in the Digital Age
By: Elisabeth Paulson and Michael W. Toffel
In fall 2023, the Food Program of Met Council—America’s largest Jewish charity dedicated to fighting poverty—completed the rollout of the newest version of its digital pantry platform to twelve food pantries in the Met Council food pantry network. The digital... View Details
- May 2024
- Article
The Effect of Configural Processing on Mentalization
By: Katrina Fincher, Ting Zhang, Asteya Percaya, Adam Galinsky and Michael W. Morris
Eight studies (N = 2,561) reveal that how we perceptually process a person’s face affects our capacity to understand their mind. Studies 1A and B indicate this relationship functions via two separate pathways: (a) indirectly by increasing our sensitivity to the... View Details
- April 2024 (Revised October 2024)
- Case
New Belgium Brewing and Climate Change
By: Michael W. Toffel, Kenneth P. Pucker and Michael Norris
In 2023, Colorado-based craft brewery New Belgium Brewing was considering how best to meet its emissions reduction targets. After decades of growth, the beermaker had grown to become one of the largest craft brewers in the U.S., and was purchased in 2019 by Japanese... View Details
- April 2024
- Article
A Machine Learning Algorithm Predicting Risk of Dilating VUR among Infants with Hydronephrosis Using UTD Classification
By: Hsin-Hsiao Scott Wang, Michael Lingzhi Li, Dylan Cahill, John Panagides, Tanya Logvinenko, Jeanne Chow and Caleb Nelson
Backgrounds: Urinary Tract Dilation (UTD) classification has been designed to be a more objective grading system to evaluate antenatal and post-natal UTD. Due to unclear association between UTD classifications to specific anomalies such as vesico-ureteral reflux (VUR),... View Details
- April 2024
- Article
Decision Authority and the Returns to Algorithms
By: Hyunjin Kim, Edward L. Glaeser, Andrew Hillis, Scott Duke Kominers and Michael Luca
We evaluate a pilot in an Inspections Department to explore the returns to a pair of algorithms that varied in their sophistication. We find that both algorithms provided substantial prediction gains, suggesting that even simple data may be helpful. However, these... View Details
- March 2024 (Revised April 2024)
- Case
Coursera's Foray into GenAI
By: Suraj Srinivasan, Michael Parzen and Radhika Kak
In early 2023, Maggioncalda, CEO of US EdTech firm Coursera, launched Project Genesis to develop a strategy for incorporating GenAI capabilities into the firm's offerings, asking his teams to focus on value to the firm and cost of implementation. The team identified... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
Greenlighting Innovative Projects: How Evaluation Format Shapes the Perceived Feasibility of Novel Ideas
By: Jacqueline N. Lane, Tianxi Cai, Michael Menietti, Griffin Weber and Eva C. Guinan
Evaluation of novel projects is essential for scientific and technological advancement. However,
evaluator bias toward a project’s potential can obscure its limitations. This study investigates
evaluation formats by contrasting combined assessments of novelty and... View Details