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- 2025
- Working Paper
Tracking the Short-Run Price Impact of U.S. Tariffs
By: Alberto Cavallo, Paola Llamas and Franco Vazquez
This paper examines the short-run impact of the 2025 U.S. tariffs on consumer prices using a unique integration of high-frequency retail pricing data, product-level country-of-origin information, and detailed tariff classifications. By linking daily prices from major... View Details
- November 2024
- Article
Price Discounts and Cheapflation During the Post-Pandemic Inflation Surge
By: Alberto Cavallo and Oleksiy Kryvtsov
We study how within-store price variation changes with inflation, and whether households exploit it to attenuate the inflation burden. We use micro price data for food products sold by 91 large multi-channel retailers in ten countries between 2018 and 2024. Measuring... View Details
- June 2024 (Revised August 2024)
- Case
Cementos Argos in the U.S.: Go Big or Go Home?
By: Jorge Tamayo, Ruth Costas, Pedro Levindo and Karina Souza
In April 2011, Colombian group Cementos Argos had to decide on whether to double down its business in the U.S., amidst the U.S. cement industry’s lowest performance in 30 years. Argos— Colombia’s leading cement producer and one of the “jewels” of Grupo GEA, the... View Details
Keywords: Mergers and Acquisitions; Business Organization; Business Subsidiaries; Talent and Talent Management; Cost vs Benefits; Financial Crisis; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Global Strategy; Business Strategy; Construction Industry; Manufacturing Industry; Latin America; South America; North and Central America; United States; Colombia
- June 2024
- Article
Inflation with COVID Consumption Baskets
By: Alberto Cavallo
The Covid-19 pandemic led to changes in expenditure patterns that introduced significant bias in the measurement of Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation. Using publicly-available data on card transactions, I updated the official CPI weights and re-calculated inflation... View Details
- December 2023
- Article
What Can Stockouts Tell Us About Inflation? Evidence from Online Micro Data
By: Alberto Cavallo and Oleksiy Kryvtsov
We use a detailed micro dataset on product availability and stockouts to construct a direct high-frequency measure of consumer product shortages during the 2020-2022 pandemic. We document a widespread multi-fold rise in stockouts in nearly all sectors early in the... View Details
- October 2023
- Article
Product Variety, the Cost of Living, and Welfare Across Countries
By: Alberto Cavallo, Robert C. Feenstra and Robert Inklaar
We use the structure of the Melitz (2003) model to compute the cost of living and welfare across 47 countries, and compare these to conventional measures of prices and real consumption from the International Comparisons Project (ICP). The cost of living is inferred... View Details
- 2023
- Chapter
Inflation and Misallocation in New Keynesian Models
By: Alberto Cavallo, Francesco Lippi and Ken Miyahara
The New Keynesian framework implies that sluggish price adjustment results in a distorted allocation of resources. We use a simple model to quantify these unobservable distortions, using data that depict the price-setting behavior of firms, specifically the frequency... View Details
- 2023
- Working Paper
Detecting Structural Breaks in Inflation Trends: A High-Frequency Approach
By: Alberto Cavallo and Gaston Garcia Zavaleta
We combine standard structural-break methods with high-frequency data to identify shifts in inflation trends. We use this approach to study the inflation dynamics of 25 countries from January 2022 to April 2023 and find evidence of a broad-based slowdown in about half... View Details
- June 2022
- Background Note
FIELD Immersion 2022: Albuquerque, New Mexico
By: Alberto Cavallo and Stacy Straaberg
- March 2022
- Module Note
International Macroeconomics with Global Crises
By: Alberto Cavallo
This note introduces a module of cases used at Harvard Business School (HBS) to teach fundamental concepts of international macroeconomics through the discussion of global crises. First, to provide context, it gives a brief overview of the module. Then, it describes... View Details
- March 2022
- Teaching Note
The Global Great Depression, 1929-1939
By: Alberto Cavallo and Sophus A. Reinert
Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 722-034. View Details
- March 2022
- Teaching Note
Automercados Plaza's: Surviving Venezuela's Hyperinflation
By: Alberto Cavallo
Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 721-014. View Details
- March 2022
- Teaching Note
Getting Brexit Done
By: Alberto Cavallo
Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 720-023. View Details
- March 2022
- Teaching Note
The Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic and the Global Economy (A) and (B)
By: Alberto Cavallo
Teaching Note for HBS Case Nos. 720-031 and 721-434. View Details
- January 2022
- Technical Note
BGIE Macro Data Repository
By: Alberto Cavallo
This technical note describes an up-to-date data repository containing balance of payment, exchange rate, and aggregate macroeconomic data in a standard format used by case studies written by members of the Business, Government & the International Economy (BGIE) group... View Details
Keywords: Macroeconomics
- November 2021 (Revised January 2024)
- Case
The Global Great Depression, 1929-1939
By: Alberto Cavallo, Sophus A. Reinert and Federica Gabrieli
The Great Depression was, by far, the worst economic contraction of the twentieth century, and some of the most important ideas about both fiscal and monetary policy in the second half of the century were developed in response to it. The economic collapse, which... View Details
- 2023
- Working Paper
The International Price of Remote Work
By: Agostina Brinatti, Alberto Cavallo, Javier Cravino and Andres Drenik
We study how the price of remote work is determined in a globalized labor market using data from a large web-based job platform, where workers from around the world compete for remote jobs. Despite the global nature of the platform, we find that remote wages are higher... View Details
- March 2021
- Article
Targeted Price Controls on Supermarket Products
By: Alberto Cavallo and Diego Aparicio
We study the impact of targeted price controls for supermarket products in Argentina from 2007 to 2015. Using web scraping, we collected daily prices for controlled and non-controlled goods and measured the differential effects on inflation, product availability, and... View Details
Keywords: Prices; Controls; Price Dispersion; Economics; Price; Cost Management; Goods and Commodities; Retail Industry; Argentina
- Article
Tariff Passthrough at the Border and at the Store: Evidence from U.S. Trade Policy
By: Alberto Cavallo, Gita Gopinath, Brent Neiman and Jenny Tang
We use micro data collected at the border and the store to characterize the price impact of recent US trade policy on importers, exporters, and consumers. At the border, import tariff passthrough is much higher than exchange rate passthrough. Chinese exporters did not... View Details
Keywords: Trade Policy; Tariffs; Exchange Rate Passthrough; Economics; Trade; Policy; Currency Exchange Rate; Price; United States
- February 2021 (Revised March 2023)
- Supplement
The Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic and the Global Economy (B)
By: Alberto Cavallo and Christian Godwin
By December 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic had swept across the globe, creating widespread disruption in all aspects of everyday life. Almost 90 million people had been infected and nearly two million had died from the disease. By this point in the pandemic—a year since... View Details