Tariffs - Publications - Faculty & Research

2025
Working Paper

Tracking the Short-Run Price Impact of U.S. Tariffs

By: Alberto Cavallo, Paola Llamas and Franco Vazquez

This paper examines the short-run impact of the 2025 U.S. tariffs on consumer prices using a unique integration of high-frequency retail pricing data, product-level country-of-origin information, and detailed tariff classifications. By linking daily prices from major... View Details

Keywords: Tariffs; Trade; Price; Inflation and Deflation

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2021
Working Paper

Competitive Two-Part Tariffs

By: Jorge Tamayo and Guofu Tan

We study competitive two-part tariffs in a model of asymmetric duopoly firms that offer (vertically and horizontally) differentiated products. We show that the sign of the markup for each product depends on the average expected demand among all customers as well as the... View Details

Keywords: Product Differentiation; Two-part Tariffs; Marginal-cost Pricing; Cross-subsidization; Competition; Price

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Article

When Talk Is "Free": The Effect of Tariff Structure on Usage Under Two- and Three-Part Tariffs

By: Eva Ascarza, Anja Lambrecht and Naufel Vilcassim

In many service industries, firms introduce three-part tariffs to replace or complement existing two-part tariffs. In contrast with two-part tariffs, three-part tariffs offer allowances, or “free” units of the service. Behavioral research suggests that the attributes... View Details

Keywords: Pricing; Nonlinear Pricing; Discrete/continuous Choice Model; Three-part Tariffs; Free Products; Price; Consumer Behavior; Analysis; Learning; Risk and Uncertainty

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Article

Tariff Passthrough at the Border and at the Store: Evidence from U.S. Trade Policy

By: Alberto Cavallo, Gita Gopinath, Brent Neiman and Jenny Tang

We use micro data collected at the border and the store to characterize the price impact of recent US trade policy on importers, exporters, and consumers. At the border, import tariff passthrough is much higher than exchange rate passthrough. Chinese exporters did not... View Details

Keywords: Trade Policy; Tariffs; Exchange Rate Passthrough; Economics; Trade; Policy; Currency Exchange Rate; Price; United States

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2020
Working Paper

Tariff Passthrough at the Border and at the Store: Evidence from U.S. Trade Policy

By: Alberto Cavallo, Gita Gopinath, Brent Neiman and Jenny Tang

We use micro data collected at the border and the store to characterize the price impact of recent US trade policy on importers, exporters, and consumers. At the border, import tariff passthrough is much higher than exchange rate passthrough. Chinese exporters did not... View Details

Keywords: Trade Policy; Tariffs; Exchange Rate Passthrough; Economics; Trade; Policy; Inflation and Deflation; United States; China

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12 Apr 2018
Op-Ed

Op-Ed: The Trouble with Tariffs

Stacks of shipping containers waiting to be filled with export goods. ralfgosch In March, when the Trump administration released its proposed tariffs list against China, I was eager to get a look. After all, these are the products from... View Details

Keywords: by Willy C. Shih; Manufacturing; Auto; Steel; Air Transportation; Technology; Telecommunications

February 13, 2025
Article

Research: The Costs of Circumventing Tariffs

By: Jaya Y. Wen, Ebehi Iyoha, Edmund Malesky and Sung-Ju Wu

When tariffs are levied against a specific country, that country might attempt to circumvent the tariff by rerouting products through a third country to avoid the higher taxes. Research in the aftermath of the 2018 U.S.-China trade war examined this phenomenon, finding... View Details

Keywords: Trade; Global Strategy; International Relations; United States; China

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02 Mar 2018
News

Trump’s Tariffs Will Take Their Toll

Are Carbon Tariffs Protectionism or Climate Policy?

Some argue that carbon tariffs — carbon costs imposed on imports entering an emission-regulated region — are simply protectionism being peddled as climate policy. Our results suggest otherwise. The implementation of a carbon tariff decreases global emissions... View Details

11 Sep 2017
Video

Are Carbon Tariffs Protectionism or Climate Policy?

12 Aug 2019
News

Trump Still Doesn't Know Who Pays Tariffs

Tracking the Short-Run Price Impact of U.S. Tariffs

This paper examines the short-run impact of the 2025 U.S. tariffs on consumer prices using a unique integration of high-frequency retail pricing data, product-level country-of-origin information, and detailed tariff classifications. By linking daily prices from major... View Details

November 2022
Case

Chêne Bleu: Caught in the Trade Tariff Crossfire

By: Dante Roscini, Elena Corsi and Daniela Beyersdorfer

A French wine estate faced a 25% tariff on its U.S. exports following a multi-decade-long EU-U.S. trade dispute in the aerospace industry. View Details

Keywords: Trade; Globalized Markets and Industries; Business Startups; Business Strategy; Expansion; Family Business; Distribution; Agribusiness; Taxation; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Food and Beverage Industry; Aerospace Industry; France; United States; Europe

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Navigating Tariffs | Working Knowledge

Navigating Tariffs Harvard Business School faculty research about how tariffs affect businesses, supply chains, and prices for leaders managing trade uncertainty. What does HBS research say about tariffs?... View Details

17 Sep 2019
News

Trump's tariffs revive damaging prewar world of trade barriers

01 Sep 2022
What Do You Think?

Is It Time to Consider Lifting Tariffs on Chinese Imports?

(iStockphoto/AvigatorPhotographer) Recently there has been talk, but no action, about eliminating some or all of the tariffs on Chinese imports that were instituted by the Trump administration. The debate involves salient arguments on... View Details

Keywords: Re: James L. Heskett