Publications

December 1989
Article

On the Consistency of Short-Run and Long-Run Exchange Rate Expectations

By: K. A. Froot and T. Ito

This paper examines whether short-term exchange rate expectations 'overreact' by comparing them with long-term expectations. We develop a set of nonlinear restrictions linking expectations at different forecast horizons. The restrictions impose consistency, a property... View Details

Keywords: Currencies; Exchange Rates; International Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy; Currency Controls; Fixed Exchange Rates; Floating Exchange Rates; Currency Bands; Currency Zones; Currency Areas; Rational Expectations; Asset Pricing

2024
Working Paper

How Inflation Expectations De-Anchor: The Role of Selective Memory Cues

By: Nicola Gennaioli, Marta Leva, Raphael Schoenle and Andrei Shleifer

In a model of memory and selective recall, household inflation expectations remain rigid when inflation is anchored but exhibit sharp instability during inflation surges, as similarity prompts retrieval of forgotten high-inflation experiences. Using data from the New... View Details

Keywords: Cognition and Thinking; Inflation and Deflation; Personal Finance

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November 2012 (Revised April 2013)
Case

Perspectives on the Great Depression

By: Julio J. Rotemberg

The case assembles texts giving perspectives on the Great Depression by Franklin Delano Roosevelt, John Maynard Keynes, Milton Friedman, Anna Schwartz and Ben Bernanke. This should allow for a discussion of the role of fiscal and monetary policies in reaching and... View Details

Keywords: Great Depression; Keynesian Multiplier; Monetary Policy; Zero Lower Bound Of Interest Rates; Role Of Expectations In Macroeconomics; Performance Expectations; History; Policy; Interest Rates; Macroeconomics

Educators

December 1986
Article

Understanding the U.S. Dollar in the Eighties: The Expectations of Chartists and Fundamentalists

By: J. Frankel and K. A. Froot

Keywords: Currencies; Exchange Rates; Asset Pricing; International Macroeconomics; Monetary Policy; Currency Controls; Fixed Exchange Rates; Floating Exchange Rates; Currency Bands; Currency Zones; Currency Areas; Rational Expectations; History; Performance Expectations; Economics; United States

Research Summary

Dynamics of Platform Competition: Exploring the Role of Installed Base, Platform Quality and Consumer Expectations

Researchers debate the role of installed base, platform quality and consumer expectations in driving the success of platforms. We analyze these three factors in a dynamic model where a new entrant with superior quality competes with an incumbent platform, and... View Details

25 Jan 2010
Research & Ideas

A Macroeconomic View of the Current Economy

higher in the future, then the price is going to start rising today. Although expectations of all sorts are important, one particular set of... View Details

Keywords: by Sean Silverthorne

Forthcoming
Chapter

Oil, Macroeconomic Volatility and Crime in the Determination of Beliefs in Venezuela

By: Rafael Di Tella, Javier Donna and Robert MacCulloch

Book Abstract: At the beginning of the twentieth century Venezuela had one of the poorest economies in Latin America, but by 1970 it had become the richest country in the region and one of the twenty richest countries in the world, ahead of countries such as Greece,... View Details

Keywords: Macroeconomics; Volatility; Crime and Corruption; Values and Beliefs; Non-Renewable Energy; Energy Industry; Venezuela

2024
Working Paper

What Drives Variation in Investor Portfolios? Estimating the Roles of Beliefs and Risk Preferences

By: Mark Egan, Alexander MacKay and Hanbin Yang

We present an empirical model of portfolio choice that allows for the nonparametric estimation of investors' (subjective) expectations and risk preferences. Utilizing a comprehensive dataset of 401(k) plans from 2009 through 2019, we explore heterogeneity in asset... View Details

Keywords: Stock Market Expectations; Demand Estimation; Retirement Planning; Defined Contribution Retirement Plan; 401 (K); Finance; Investment Portfolio; Investment; Retirement; Behavioral Finance; Financial Services Industry; United States

SSRN

2007
Working Paper

Dynamics of Platform Competition: Exploring the Role of Installed Base, Platform Quality and Consumer Expectations

By: Feng Zhu and Marco Iansiti

This paper seeks to answer three questions. First, which drives the success of a platform, installed base, platform quality or consumer expectations? Second, when does a monopoly emerge in a platform-based market? Finally, when is a platform-based market socially... View Details

Keywords: Price; Network Effects; Digital Platforms; Monopoly; Quality; Competitive Advantage; Digital Platforms

September 2023
Article

The Changing Role of Managers

By: Letian Zhang

This study argues that the increase in middle management in recent decades was accompanied by a major shift in managerial roles. Increased task complexity and a new management philosophy have reduced the need for direct supervision but generated a much greater... View Details

Keywords: Managerial Roles; Leadership; Groups and Teams; Change; Organizational Structure

Research Summary

The Cross Section of Expected Firm (Not Equity) Returns

This paper provides the first comprehensive study of expected firm (unlevered equity) returns. After accounting for the debt component of the firm return, I find that many of the cross sectional determinants of expected equity returns, such as the book-to-market... View Details

Teaching Interest

The Role of Government in Market Economies (RoGME)

By: Matthew C. Weinzierl

RoGME is about one question: What is the proper role of government in market economies? We study the role of government as it plays out in the real world, using case studies to examine policies of current interest and importance.... View Details

August 2016
Article

The Role of (Dis)similarity in (Mis)predicting Others' Preferences

By: Kate Barasz, Tami Kim and Leslie K. John

Consumers readily indicate liking options that appear dissimilar—for example, enjoying both rustic lake vacations and chic city vacations or liking both scholarly documentary films and action-packed thrillers. However, when predicting other consumers’ tastes for the... View Details

Keywords: Perceived Similarity; Prediction Error; Preference Prediction; Self-other Difference; Social Inference; Cognition and Thinking; Perception; Forecasting and Prediction

November 29, 2011
Article

The Role of The Board in Creating a Sustainable Strategy

By: Robert G. Eccles, Ioannis Ioannou and George Serafeim

While conceptually elegant, the belief that a corporation's role is to maximize value for shareholders is under increasing challenge as society's expectations for companies change. An equally elegant new concept that takes account of these dual pressures has yet to... View Details

Keywords: Value Creation; Business and Stakeholder Relations; Corporate Strategy; Business and Shareholder Relations; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Performance Expectations; Governing and Advisory Boards; Management Practices and Processes; Decisions; Risk and Uncertainty; Cost vs Benefits; Information

February 2007 (Revised March 2007)
Case

Navigating Turbulent Waters: Glitnir Bank's Communication Challenge during a Macroeconomic Crisis

By: Michael D. Kimbrough, Gregory S. Miller, Vincent Marie Dessain and Ane Damgaard Jensen

Glitnir Bank is an Icelandic company following an aggressive growth strategy that relies heavily on foreign debt. Access to such debt is suddenly curtailed when there is a downturn in market sentiment regarding the Icelandic economy as a whole. Students will reflect on... View Details

Keywords: International Finance; Banks and Banking; Macroeconomics; Communication Strategy; Banking Industry; Iceland

Educators

01 Mar 2024
News

In My Humble Opinion: Role Model

geeky nerds. To counter those stereotypes, Qarnain made a point of gathering more diverse résumés for roles that didn’t explicitly require a white actor, hoping to gradually shift View Details

Keywords: Julia Hanna; acting; theater; diversity; career path; Performing Arts, Spectator Sports, and Related Industries; Arts, Entertainment

23 Nov 2009
Research & Ideas

Management’s Role in Reforming Health Care

venues of care and caregivers, and tools and systems that help and allow patients to be more effectively involved in their own care. To date, our prevailing model of innovation... View Details

Keywords: by Martha Lagace; Health

April 2021
Article

For the Love of Money: The Role of Financially Contingent Self-worth in Romantic Relationships

By: Deborah E. Ward, Lora E. Park, Courtney M. Walsh, Kristin Naragon-Gainey, Elaine Paravati and Ashley V. Whillans

Financial conflicts are among the top reasons for dissatisfaction and dissolution in romantic relationships. Beyond economic strain, however, few studies have examined the psychological antecedents of financial conflicts that contribute to relationship satisfaction.... View Details

Keywords: Conflict and Resolution; Family and Family Relationships; Satisfaction; Personal Finance