Inflation and Deflation - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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June 2018
Case

Japan: Deficits, Deflation and Debt

By: Richard H.K. Vietor and Haviland Sheldahl-Thomason

In April 2018, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was again in Washington to petition Donald Trump. After years of rapid, export-led growth, Japan had slumped into recession in 1991 and never really recovered. For the past 27 years, its economy has grown at 1.1% annually,... View Details

Keywords: Deflation; Debt; Country Analysis; Monetary Expansion; Population Growth; Inflation and Deflation; Borrowing and Debt; Economy; Energy; National Security; Japan

07 Jun 2009
News

Cash in on the war between inflation and deflation

October 2012
Case

Brazil 2003: Inflation Targeting and Debt Dynamics (Abridged)

By: Laura Alfaro and Rafael Di Tella

In October 2002, Brazilians elected a left-wing president, Luis Inacio Lula da Silva, for the first time in that country's history. As markets faltered in response, Lula sought to reaffirm his commitment to fiscal discipline, a floating exchange rate, and inflation... View Details

Keywords: Brazil; Inflation; Emerging Markets; Inflation and Deflation; Brazil

June 2024
Article

Inflation with COVID Consumption Baskets

By: Alberto Cavallo

The Covid-19 pandemic led to changes in expenditure patterns that introduced significant bias in the measurement of Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation. Using publicly-available data on card transactions, I updated the official CPI weights and re-calculated inflation... View Details

Keywords: COVID; Consumer Expenditures; CPI; Inflation; Consumer Behavior; Inflation and Deflation; Health Pandemics

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Article

Online and Official Price Indexes: Measuring Argentina's Inflation

By: Alberto Cavallo

Prices collected from online retailers can be used to construct daily price indexes that complement official statistics. This paper studies their ability to match official inflation estimates in five Latin American countries, with a focus on Argentina, where official... View Details

Keywords: Inflation; Online Price Index; Economics; Macroeconomics; Inflation and Deflation; Price; Latin America; Argentina

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2018
Mimeo

Measuring Venezuela's Inflation Using Crowdsourcing and Mobile Phones

By: Alberto Cavallo

Keywords: Inflation; Crowdsourcing; Macroeconomics; Inflation and Deflation; Venezuela

12 Mar 2009
Working Paper Summaries

Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds

Keywords: by John Y. Campbell, Adi Sunderam & Luis M. Viceira

2017
Article

Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds

By: John Y. Campbell, Adi Sunderam and Luis M. Viceira

The covariance between U.S. Treasury bond returns and stock returns has moved considerably over time. While it was slightly positive on average in the period 1953–2009, it was unusually high in the early 1980s and negative in the 2000s, particularly in the downturns of... View Details

Keywords: Inflation and Deflation; Bonds; Interest Rates; Investment Return; Risk Management

Article

Learning from Potentially Biased Statistics: Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in Argentina

By: Alberto Cavallo, Guillermo Cruces and Ricardo Perez-Truglia

When forming expectations, households may be influenced by perceived bias in the information they receive. In this paper, we study how individuals learn from potentially biased statistics using data from both a natural experiment and a survey experiment during a... View Details

Keywords: Inflation Expectations; Bayesian Estimation; Inflation and Deflation; Information; Household; Behavior; Argentina

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July 2017
Article

Inflation Expectations, Learning, and Supermarket Prices: Evidence from Survey Experiments

By: Alberto Cavallo, Guillermo Cruces and Ricardo Perez-Truglia

Information frictions play a central role in the formation of household inflation expectations, but there is no consensus about their origins. We address this question with novel evidence from survey experiments. We document two main findings. First, individuals in... View Details

Keywords: Inflation Expectations; Survey Experiment; Rational Inattention; Supermarkets; Macroeconomics; Household; Inflation and Deflation; Policy

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2009
Working Paper

Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds

By: John Y. Campbell, Adi Sunderam and Luis M. Viceira

27 May 2009
News

How to offset the current deflation while preparing for inflation in the future

November 2005
Teaching Note

Japan: Deficits, Demography and Deflation (TN)

By: Richard H.K. Vietor

Keywords: Sovereign Finance; Demographics; Inflation and Deflation; Japan

July 2005 (Revised December 2006)
Case

Japan: Deficits, Demography, and Deflation

By: Richard H.K. Vietor

By 2005, Japan's debt had risen to 163% of GDP. For more than a decade, the government had run huge deficits, trying unsuccessfully to stimulate economic growth. Interest rates, meanwhile, had been zero for years. But with slow growth and banks in crisis, nothing had... View Details

Keywords: Economy; Economic Growth; Demographics; Financial Condition; Inflation and Deflation; Banks and Banking; Borrowing and Debt; Macroeconomics; Policy; Government and Politics; Welfare; Health Care and Treatment; Japan

March 2004
Article

Inflation, Inflation Variability, and Corruption

By: Miguel Braun and Rafael Di Tella

We present a model where agents can inflate the cost of goods needed to start an investment project and inflation variability increases monitoring costs. We show that inflation variability can lead to higher corruption and lower investment. We document a positive... View Details

Keywords: Inflation and Deflation; Crime and Corruption

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December 2013 (Revised March 2024)
Case

Breaking Bad (the Rules): Argentina Defaults, Inflates (and Grows), 1997–2015

By: Rafael Di Tella and Fernanda Miguel

In late October 2011, after losing 1 billion of dollar reserves in one month, the Argentine government began imposing a series of currency controls, limiting the ability to buy foreign currency. As of October 2011, Argentina's tax collection agency AFIP had been... View Details

Keywords: Default; Inflation; Inflation and Deflation; Currency; Governance Controls; Argentina

2000
Working Paper

Inflation and Corruption

By: Miguel Braun and Rafael Di Tella

December 1999 (Revised November 2010)
Background Note

Inflation Accounting and Analysis

By: David F. Hawkins

Describes alternative approaches to accounting for business activities during periods of inflation. Presents hints and techniques for analyzing financial statements during inflationary periods. A rewritten version of an earlier note. View Details

Keywords: Cost Accounting; Financial Statements; Inflation and Deflation

2023
Chapter

Inflation and Misallocation in New Keynesian Models

By: Alberto Cavallo, Francesco Lippi and Ken Miyahara

The New Keynesian framework implies that sluggish price adjustment results in a distorted allocation of resources. We use a simple model to quantify these unobservable distortions, using data that depict the price-setting behavior of firms, specifically the frequency... View Details

Keywords: Macroeconomics; Inflation and Deflation; Price; Analytics and Data Science; Cost

Research Summary

Inflation Uncertainty and the Wage Bargain

Joint work with Hans-Joachim Voth, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona.

Trade unions often seem to behave in a more militant fashion when inflation rises. We provide the first theory as to why this should be so. We argue that uncertainty about the rate of inflation... View Details

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