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- All HBS Web
(590)
- News (132)
- Research (412)
- Events (2)
- Multimedia (5)
- Faculty Publications (242)
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- June 2018
- Case
Japan: Deficits, Deflation and Debt
By: Richard H.K. Vietor and Haviland Sheldahl-Thomason
In April 2018, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was again in Washington to petition Donald Trump. After years of rapid, export-led growth, Japan had slumped into recession in 1991 and never really recovered. For the past 27 years, its economy has grown at 1.1% annually,... View Details
Keywords: Deflation; Debt; Country Analysis; Monetary Expansion; Population Growth; Inflation and Deflation; Borrowing and Debt; Economy; Energy; National Security; Japan
Vietor, Richard H.K., and Haviland Sheldahl-Thomason. "Japan: Deficits, Deflation and Debt." Harvard Business School Case 718-063, June 2018.
- 07 Jun 2009
- News
Cash in on the war between inflation and deflation
- October 2012
- Case
Brazil 2003: Inflation Targeting and Debt Dynamics (Abridged)
By: Laura Alfaro and Rafael Di Tella
In October 2002, Brazilians elected a left-wing president, Luis Inacio Lula da Silva, for the first time in that country's history. As markets faltered in response, Lula sought to reaffirm his commitment to fiscal discipline, a floating exchange rate, and inflation... View Details
- June 2024
- Article
Inflation with COVID Consumption Baskets
By: Alberto Cavallo
The Covid-19 pandemic led to changes in expenditure patterns that introduced significant bias in the measurement of Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation. Using publicly-available data on card transactions, I updated the official CPI weights and re-calculated inflation... View Details
Keywords: COVID; Consumer Expenditures; CPI; Inflation; Consumer Behavior; Inflation and Deflation; Health Pandemics
Cavallo, Alberto. "Inflation with COVID Consumption Baskets." Special Issue on The Global Economy: Looking Back, Moving Forward, Part II. IMF Economic Review 72, no. 2 (June 2024): 902–917.
- 12 Mar 2009
- Working Paper Summaries
Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds
- Article
Online and Official Price Indexes: Measuring Argentina's Inflation
By: Alberto Cavallo
Prices collected from online retailers can be used to construct daily price indexes that complement official statistics. This paper studies their ability to match official inflation estimates in five Latin American countries, with a focus on Argentina, where official... View Details
Keywords: Inflation; Online Price Index; Economics; Macroeconomics; Inflation and Deflation; Price; Latin America; Argentina
Cavallo, Alberto. "Online and Official Price Indexes: Measuring Argentina's Inflation." Journal of Monetary Economics 60, no. 2 (March 2013): 152–165.
- 2018
- Mimeo
Measuring Venezuela's Inflation Using Crowdsourcing and Mobile Phones
By: Alberto Cavallo
Cavallo, Alberto. "Measuring Venezuela's Inflation Using Crowdsourcing and Mobile Phones." 2018. Mimeo.
- 2017
- Article
Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds
By: John Y. Campbell, Adi Sunderam and Luis M. Viceira
The covariance between U.S. Treasury bond returns and stock returns has moved considerably over time. While it was slightly positive on average in the period 1953–2009, it was unusually high in the early 1980s and negative in the 2000s, particularly in the downturns of... View Details
Campbell, John Y., Adi Sunderam, and Luis M. Viceira. "Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds." Critical Finance Review 6, no. 2 (2017): 263–301.
- July 2017
- Article
Inflation Expectations, Learning, and Supermarket Prices: Evidence from Survey Experiments
By: Alberto Cavallo, Guillermo Cruces and Ricardo Perez-Truglia
Information frictions play a central role in the formation of household inflation expectations, but there is no consensus about their origins. We address this question with novel evidence from survey experiments. We document two main findings. First, individuals in... View Details
Keywords: Inflation Expectations; Survey Experiment; Rational Inattention; Supermarkets; Macroeconomics; Household; Inflation and Deflation; Policy
Cavallo, Alberto, Guillermo Cruces, and Ricardo Perez-Truglia. "Inflation Expectations, Learning, and Supermarket Prices: Evidence from Survey Experiments." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 9, no. 3 (July 2017): 1–35.
- 2009
- Working Paper
Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds
By: John Y. Campbell, Adi Sunderam and Luis M. Viceira
- Article
Learning from Potentially Biased Statistics: Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in Argentina
By: Alberto Cavallo, Guillermo Cruces and Ricardo Perez-Truglia
When forming expectations, households may be influenced by perceived bias in the information they receive. In this paper, we study how individuals learn from potentially biased statistics using data from both a natural experiment and a survey experiment during a... View Details
Keywords: Inflation Expectations; Bayesian Estimation; Inflation and Deflation; Information; Household; Behavior; Argentina
Cavallo, Alberto, Guillermo Cruces, and Ricardo Perez-Truglia. "Learning from Potentially Biased Statistics: Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in Argentina." Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (Spring 2016): 59–108.
- November 2005
- Teaching Note
Japan: Deficits, Demography and Deflation (TN)
- July 2005 (Revised December 2006)
- Case
Japan: Deficits, Demography, and Deflation
By 2005, Japan's debt had risen to 163% of GDP. For more than a decade, the government had run huge deficits, trying unsuccessfully to stimulate economic growth. Interest rates, meanwhile, had been zero for years. But with slow growth and banks in crisis, nothing had... View Details
Keywords: Economy; Economic Growth; Demographics; Financial Condition; Inflation and Deflation; Banks and Banking; Borrowing and Debt; Macroeconomics; Policy; Government and Politics; Welfare; Health Care and Treatment; Japan
Vietor, Richard H.K. "Japan: Deficits, Demography, and Deflation." Harvard Business School Case 706-004, July 2005. (Revised December 2006.)
- March 2004
- Article
Inflation, Inflation Variability, and Corruption
By: Miguel Braun and Rafael Di Tella
We present a model where agents can inflate the cost of goods needed to start an investment project and inflation variability increases monitoring costs. We show that inflation variability can lead to higher corruption and lower investment. We document a positive... View Details
Braun, Miguel, and Rafael Di Tella. "Inflation, Inflation Variability, and Corruption." Economics & Politics 16, no. 1 (March 2004).
- 2023
- Chapter
Inflation and Misallocation in New Keynesian Models
By: Alberto Cavallo, Francesco Lippi and Ken Miyahara
The New Keynesian framework implies that sluggish price adjustment results in a distorted allocation of resources. We use a simple model to quantify these unobservable distortions, using data that depict the price-setting behavior of firms, specifically the frequency... View Details
Cavallo, Alberto, Francesco Lippi, and Ken Miyahara. "Inflation and Misallocation in New Keynesian Models." In ECB Forum on Central Banking 26-28 June 2023, Sintra, Portugal: Macroeconomic Stabilisation in a Volatile Inflation Environment. European Central Bank, 2023.
- December 2013 (Revised March 2024)
- Case
Breaking Bad (the Rules): Argentina Defaults, Inflates (and Grows), 1997–2015
By: Rafael Di Tella and Fernanda Miguel
In late October 2011, after losing 1 billion of dollar reserves in one month, the Argentine government began imposing a series of currency controls, limiting the ability to buy foreign currency. As of October 2011, Argentina's tax collection agency AFIP had been... View Details
Di Tella, Rafael, and Fernanda Miguel. "Breaking Bad (the Rules): Argentina Defaults, Inflates (and Grows), 1997–2015." Harvard Business School Case 714-036, December 2013. (Revised March 2024.)
- 2000
- Working Paper
Inflation and Corruption
By: Miguel Braun and Rafael Di Tella
Braun, Miguel, and Rafael Di Tella. "Inflation and Corruption." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 00-053, February 2000.
- December 1999 (Revised November 2010)
- Background Note
Inflation Accounting and Analysis
By: David F. Hawkins
Describes alternative approaches to accounting for business activities during periods of inflation. Presents hints and techniques for analyzing financial statements during inflationary periods. A rewritten version of an earlier note. View Details
Hawkins, David F. "Inflation Accounting and Analysis." Harvard Business School Background Note 100-063, December 1999. (Revised November 2010.)
- Research Summary
Inflation Uncertainty and the Wage Bargain
Joint work with Hans-Joachim Voth, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona.
Trade unions often seem to behave in a more militant fashion when inflation rises. We provide the first theory as to why this should be so. We argue that uncertainty about the rate of inflation... View Details