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- Article
Learning from Potentially Biased Statistics: Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in Argentina
By: Alberto Cavallo, Guillermo Cruces and Ricardo Perez-Truglia
When forming expectations, households may be influenced by perceived bias in the information they receive. In this paper, we study how individuals learn from potentially biased statistics using data from both a natural experiment and a survey experiment during a... View Details
Keywords: Inflation Expectations; Bayesian Estimation; Inflation and Deflation; Information; Household; Behavior; Argentina
Cavallo, Alberto, Guillermo Cruces, and Ricardo Perez-Truglia. "Learning from Potentially Biased Statistics: Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in Argentina." Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (Spring 2016): 59–108.
- July 2017
- Article
Inflation Expectations, Learning, and Supermarket Prices: Evidence from Survey Experiments
By: Alberto Cavallo, Guillermo Cruces and Ricardo Perez-Truglia
Information frictions play a central role in the formation of household inflation expectations, but there is no consensus about their origins. We address this question with novel evidence from survey experiments. We document two main findings. First, individuals in... View Details
Keywords: Inflation Expectations; Survey Experiment; Rational Inattention; Supermarkets; Macroeconomics; Household; Inflation and Deflation; Policy
Cavallo, Alberto, Guillermo Cruces, and Ricardo Perez-Truglia. "Inflation Expectations, Learning, and Supermarket Prices: Evidence from Survey Experiments." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 9, no. 3 (July 2017): 1–35.
- 2024
- Working Paper
How Inflation Expectations De-Anchor: The Role of Selective Memory Cues
By: Nicola Gennaioli, Marta Leva, Raphael Schoenle and Andrei Shleifer
In a model of memory and selective recall, household inflation expectations remain rigid when inflation is anchored but exhibit sharp instability during inflation surges, as similarity prompts retrieval of forgotten high-inflation experiences. Using data from the New... View Details
Gennaioli, Nicola, Marta Leva, Raphael Schoenle, and Andrei Shleifer. "How Inflation Expectations De-Anchor: The Role of Selective Memory Cues." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 32633, June 2024.
- Article
Inflation-Indexed Bonds and the Expectations Hypothesis
By: Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira
This paper empirically analyzes the Expectations Hypothesis (EH) in inflation-indexed (or real) bonds and in nominal bonds in the U.S. and in the U.K. We strongly reject the EH in inflation-indexed bonds and also confirm and update the existing evidence rejecting the... View Details
Keywords: TIPS; Breakeven Inflation; Return Predictability; Bond Risk Premia; Risk Management; Bonds; Financial Liquidity; Inflation and Deflation; United Kingdom; United States
Pflueger, Carolin E., and Luis M. Viceira. "Inflation-Indexed Bonds and the Expectations Hypothesis." Annual Review of Financial Economics 3 (2011): 139–158.
- April 1977
- Article
Purchasing Power Gains on Debt: The Effect of Expected and Unexpected Inflation
By: Robert S. Kaplan
Kaplan, Robert S. "Purchasing Power Gains on Debt: The Effect of Expected and Unexpected Inflation." Accounting Review 52 (April 1977): 369–378.
- 17 Jan 2024
- HBS Case
Psychological Pricing Tactics to Fight the Inflation Blues
Many consumers recovering from the worst inflation in 40 years continue to closely watch their spending—they want to know that every expense is worth it. Now companies must confront a major challenge: gauging how much, if any, of their... View Details
- March 2024
- Article
Medicare Price Negotiation and Pharmaceutical Innovation Following the Inflation Reduction Act
By: Matthew Vogel, Pragya Kakani, Amitabh Chandra and Rena M. Conti
The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) requires Medicare to negotiate lower prices for some medicines with high Medicare spending. Using historical data from public and proprietary sources to apply the IRA's negotiation criteria retrospectively, we identify all drugs that... View Details
Keywords: Policy; Government Legislation; Health Care and Treatment; Negotiation; Price; Pharmaceutical Industry
Vogel, Matthew, Pragya Kakani, Amitabh Chandra, and Rena M. Conti. "Medicare Price Negotiation and Pharmaceutical Innovation Following the Inflation Reduction Act." Nature Biotechnology 42, no. 3 (March 2024): 406–412.
- 2013
- Working Paper
Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity
By: Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira
Estimating the liquidity differential between inflation-indexed and nominal bond yields, we separately test for time-varying real rate risk premia, inflation risk premia, and liquidity premia in U.S. and U.K. bond markets. We find strong, model independent evidence... View Details
Keywords: Expectations Hypothesis; Term Structure; Real Interest Rate Risk; Inflation Risk; Inflation-Indexed Bonds; Financial Crisis; Inflation and Deflation; Financial Liquidity; Bonds; Investment Return; Risk and Uncertainty; United Kingdom; United States
Pflueger, Carolin E., and Luis M. Viceira. "Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11-094, March 2011. (Revised September 2013.)
- 2017
- Article
Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds
By: John Y. Campbell, Adi Sunderam and Luis M. Viceira
The covariance between U.S. Treasury bond returns and stock returns has moved considerably over time. While it was slightly positive on average in the period 1953–2009, it was unusually high in the early 1980s and negative in the 2000s, particularly in the downturns of... View Details
Campbell, John Y., Adi Sunderam, and Luis M. Viceira. "Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds." Critical Finance Review 6, no. 2 (2017): 263–301.
- 2023
- Working Paper
Who Invests in Crypto? Wealth, Financial Constraints, and Risk Attitudes
By: Darren Aiello, Scott R. Baker, Tetyana Balyuk, Marco Di Maggio, Mark J. Johnson and Jason Kotter
We provide a first look into the drivers of household cryptocurrency investing. Analyzing
consumer transaction data for millions of U.S. households, we find that, except for high income
early adopters, cryptocurrency investors resemble the general population. These... View Details
Keywords: Consumer Finance; Cryptocurrency; Fintech; Inflation; Portfolio Choice; Stimulus; Consumer Behavior; Risk and Uncertainty; Investment
Aiello, Darren, Scott R. Baker, Tetyana Balyuk, Marco Di Maggio, Mark J. Johnson, and Jason Kotter. "Who Invests in Crypto? Wealth, Financial Constraints, and Risk Attitudes." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-073, May 2023. (Revised November 2023. NBER Working Paper Series, No. 31856, November 2023)
- March 2022 (Revised May 2022)
- Case
Reclaiming the Land of Purple: Purpl’s Mission to Unlock Finance in Lebanon
By: Lauren Cohen and Grace Headinger
Karl Naim, Co-Founder and CEO of Purpl, embarked on a venture to lower remittance costs for his native Lebanon. Since October 2019, the Lebanese economy had entered a free fall as its banking sector collapsed and large swathes of its population were plunged into... View Details
Keywords: Business Startup; Fintech; Inflation; Deflation; Cross-border Frictions; Remittances; Business Startups; Diasporas; Financial Crisis; Money; Entrepreneurship; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Poverty; Financial Institutions; Banking Industry; Financial Services Industry; Technology Industry; Lebanon
Cohen, Lauren, and Grace Headinger. "Reclaiming the Land of Purple: Purpl’s Mission to Unlock Finance in Lebanon." Harvard Business School Case 222-078, March 2022. (Revised May 2022.)
- September 2014 (Revised May 2015)
- Case
The United Kingdom and the Means to Prosperity
By: Laura Alfaro, Lakshmi Iyer and Hilary White
After struggling through the country's longest recession since 2008, the U.K. was expected to grow faster than any other G7 nation in 2014. Analysts wondered whether the return to growth was because, or in spite of, Prime Minister David Cameron's controversial £113... View Details
Keywords: United Kingdom; Keynesian Multiplier; Inflation; Inflation Targeting; Government Spending; Government Intervention In The Markets; Monetary Policy; Financial Crisis Management; Austerity; Inequality; Public Finance; Government Finance; Macroeconomics; Economics; Government and Politics; Inflation and Deflation; Financial Crisis; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Economic Growth; Business Cycles; Welfare; United Kingdom
Alfaro, Laura, Lakshmi Iyer, and Hilary White. "The United Kingdom and the Means to Prosperity." Harvard Business School Case 715-008, September 2014. (Revised May 2015.)
- May 2010
- Article
Aggregate Market Reaction to Earnings Announcements
By: William Cready and Umit G Gurun
This analysis identifies a distinct immediate announcement period negative relation between earnings announcement surprises and aggregate market returns. Such a relation implies that market participants use earnings information in forming expectations about expected... View Details
Cready, William, and Umit G Gurun. "Aggregate Market Reaction to Earnings Announcements." Journal of Accounting Research 48, no. 2 (May 2010): 289–334.
- November 2004
- Article
Unemployment Benefits As a Substitute for a Conservative Central Banker
By: Rafael Di Tella and Robert MacCulloch
In the many years since their introduction, positive theories of inflation have rarely been tested. This paper documents a negative relationship between inflation and the welfare state (proxied by the parameters of the unemployment benefit program) that is to be... View Details
Di Tella, Rafael, and Robert MacCulloch. "Unemployment Benefits As a Substitute for a Conservative Central Banker." Review of Economics and Statistics 86, no. 4 (November 2004): 911–23.
- Article
Temporal View of the Costs and Benefits of Self-Deception
By: Zoe Chance, Michael I. Norton, Francesca Gino and Dan Ariely
Researchers have documented many cases in which individuals rationalize their regrettable actions. Four experiments examine situations in which people go beyond merely explaining away their misconduct to actively deceiving themselves. We find that those who exploit... View Details
Keywords: Hindsight Bias; Lying; Motivated Reasoning; Self-enhancement; Social Psychology; Perception; Performance Expectations
Chance, Zoe, Michael I. Norton, Francesca Gino, and Dan Ariely. "Temporal View of the Costs and Benefits of Self-Deception." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 108, no. S3 (September 13, 2011): 15655–15659.
- 1996
- Article
Limits on Interest Rate Rules in the IS Model
By: William R. Kerr and Robert G. King
There has been a substantial amount of research on interest rate rules. This literature finds that the feasibility and desirability of interest rate rules depends on the structure of the model used to approximate macroeconomic reality. We employ a series of... View Details
Keywords: Inflation and Deflation; Macroeconomics; Interest Rates; Price; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Performance Expectations
Kerr, William R., and Robert G. King. "Limits on Interest Rate Rules in the IS Model." Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Quarterly 82, no. 2 (1996): 47–75.
- Research Summary
A Temporal View of the Costs and Benefits of Self-Deception
Researchers have documented many cases in which individuals rationalize their regrettable actions. Four experiments examine situations in which participants go beyond merely explaining away their misconduct to actively deceiving themselves. We find that those who... View Details
- January 1989 (Revised July 1991)
- Case
Bank for International Development, Software Case
By: W. Carl Kester and Timothy A. Luehrman
A hypothetical case in which an assistant treasurer of a supranational bank is asked to determine in which currencies it has been cheaper ex post to borrow. An integral part of the case is a Lotus 1-2-3 worksheet containing monthly data on yen and dollar interest... View Details
Keywords: Decisions; Interest Rates; International Finance; Relationships; Currency; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Analytics and Data Science; Inflation and Deflation
Kester, W. Carl, and Timothy A. Luehrman. "Bank for International Development, Software Case." Harvard Business School Case 289-034, January 1989. (Revised July 1991.)
- April 2005
- Article
Partisan Social Happiness
By: Rafael Di Tella and Robert MacCulloch
We use a new approach to study questions in political economy that relies on data on the subjective well-being of a large sample of people living in the OECD over the period 1975-1992. Controlling for the personal characteristics of the respondents, year and country... View Details
Di Tella, Rafael, and Robert MacCulloch. "Partisan Social Happiness." Review of Economic Studies 72, no. 2 (April 2005): 367–93.
- August 2014
- Article
What Makes Annuitization More Appealing?
By: John Beshears, James J. Choi, David Laibson, Brigitte C. Madrian and Stephen P. Zeldes
We conduct and analyze two large surveys of hypothetical annuitization choices. We find that allowing individuals to annuitize a fraction of their wealth increases annuitization relative to a situation where annuitization is an "all or nothing" decision. Very few... View Details
Beshears, John, James J. Choi, David Laibson, Brigitte C. Madrian, and Stephen P. Zeldes. "What Makes Annuitization More Appealing?" Special Issue on NBER Pensions. Journal of Public Economics 116 (August 2014): 2–16.