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- April 2025
- Background Note
Customer Acquisition and the Cash Flow Trap
By: E. Ofek, Barak Libai and Eitan Muller
Startups as well as existing firms recognize the need to invest in order to acquire customers for their new ventures. And as each customer is expected at some point to have generated sufficient gross margins to cover their CAC, management expects that, soon enough, the... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
Balancing Engagement and Polarization: Multi-Objective Alignment of News Content Using LLMs
By: Mengjie Cheng, E. Ofek and Hema Yoganarasimhan
We study how media firms can use LLMs to generate news content that aligns with multiple objectives—making content more engaging while maintaining a preferred level of polarization/slant consistent with
the firm’s editorial policy. Using news articles from The New... View Details
- 2025
- Article
Crisis Interventions in Corporate Insolvency
By: Samuel Antill and Christopher Clayton
We model the optimal resolution of insolvent firms in general equilibrium. Collateral-constrained banks lend to (i) solvent firms to finance investments and (ii) distressed firms to avoid liquidation. Liquidations create negative fire-sale externalities. Liquidations... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
Extractive Taxation and the French Revolution
By: Tommaso Giommoni, Gabriel Loumeau and Marco Tabellini
We study the fiscal determinants of the French Revolution, exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in the salt tax—a large source of royal revenues and one of the most extractive forms of taxation of the Ancien Régime. Implementing a Regression Discontinuity... View Details
- March 2025
- Case
Metaphysic AI: Rethinking the Value of Human Expertise
By: Zoë B. Cullen, Shikhar Ghosh and Shweta Bagai
In early 2025, Thomas Graham, CEO of Metaphysic, a leading AI generative video company confronted fundamental questions about who should control digital identity in a world where AI could perfectly recreate human likeness. Founded in 2021, Metaphysic first rose to fame... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
Incentive-Compatible Recovery from Manipulated Signals, with Applications to Decentralized Physical Infrastructure
By: Jason Milionis, Jens Ernstberger, Joseph Bonneau, Scott Duke Kominers and Tim Roughgarden
We introduce the first formal model capturing the elicitation of unverifiable information from a party (the "source") with implicit signals derived by other players (the "observers"). Our model is motivated in part by applications in decentralized physical... View Details
- February 21, 2025
- Article
How a Company’s Ownership Model Shapes the Mistakes It Makes
By: Josh Baron
Why do some companies continue to thrive for decades and others die after an initial run of success? Like many kinds of accidents, company failure is generally the consequence of cascading effects that combine to overwhelm a previously effective strategy. But the... View Details
- January 2025
- Supplement
Colbún’s Angostura Dam Project (B)
By: James K. Sebenius and Nicolas Andrade
The A case describes Colbún Chile’s plans for the Angostura dam in the Bío Bío River, a hydroelectric construction venture with major challenges given the region’s history of indigenous resistance. This context was especially unfavorable given the highly contentious... View Details
- January 2025
- Case
Colbún's Angostura Dam Project (A)
By: James K. Sebenius and Nicolas Andrade
The A case describes Colbún Chile’s plans for the Angostura dam in the Bío Bío River, a hydroelectric construction venture with major challenges given the region’s history of indigenous resistance. This context was especially unfavorable given the highly contentious... View Details
- January 2025
- Case
Real Madrid Club de Fútbol
By: Anita Elberse, Juan Pasquín and Íñigo Pasquín
On June 1, 2024, Spanish soccer club Real Madrid captures its fifteenth Champions League title—more than double the tally of the nearest competitor. Under Florentino Pérez’s leadership, the club has now won six of the last eleven UEFA Champions League titles, and has... View Details
- January 2025
- Article
Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) System Implementations and Corporate Misconduct
By: Jonas Heese and Joseph Pacelli
This study examines whether enterprise resource planning (ERP) implementations are associated with reductions in corporate misconduct. Specifically, we study the relation between staggered facility-level rollouts of ERP systems and facility-level regulatory violations... View Details
- 2025
- Article
Statistical Inference for Heterogeneous Treatment Effects Discovered by Generic Machine Learning in Randomized Experiments
By: Kosuke Imai and Michael Lingzhi Li
Researchers are increasingly turning to machine learning (ML) algorithms to investigate causal heterogeneity in randomized experiments. Despite their promise, ML algorithms may fail to accurately ascertain heterogeneous treatment effects under practical settings with... View Details
- December 2024
- Case
Enerjisa Üretim: The Digital Era of Electricity Generation
By: Prithwiraj Choudhury and Sadika El Hariri
Launched in 2017, Enerjisa Üretim was one of Türkiye’s largest private sector electricity companies. In its early days, the company faced some financial and operational troubles. When İhsan Erbil Bayçöl, the current CEO of Enerjisa Üretim, joined the business in 2018,... View Details
- December 5, 2024
- Article
A Consensus Definition of Creativity in Surgery: A Delphi Study Protocol
By: Alex Thabane, Tyler McKechnie, Phillip Staibano, Vikram Arora, Goran Calic, Jason W. Busse, Sameer Parpia and Mohit Bhandari
Introduction
Clear definitions are essential in science, particularly in the study of abstract phenomena like creativity. Due to its inherent complexity and domain-specific nature, the study of creativity has been complicated, as evidenced by the various... View Details
Clear definitions are essential in science, particularly in the study of abstract phenomena like creativity. Due to its inherent complexity and domain-specific nature, the study of creativity has been complicated, as evidenced by the various... View Details
- November 2024
- Supplement
AlphaGo (C): Birth of a New Intelligence
By: Shikhar Ghosh and Shweta Bagai
This case, the final of a three-part series, explores DeepMind's pivotal transition from mastering games to solving real-world scientific challenges. In December 2020, DeepMind's AI system AlphaFold 2 achieved a breakthrough by solving protein folding—a 50-year-old... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
Scaling Core Earnings Measurement with Large Language Models
By: Matthew Shaffer and Charles CY Wang
We study the application of large language models (LLMs) to the estimation of core earnings, i.e., a firm's persistent profitability from its core business activities. This construct is central to investors' assessments of economic performance and valuations. However,... View Details
- November 2024 (Revised April 2025)
- Case
Cheerful Music
By: Shunyuan Zhang, Feng Zhu and Nancy Hua Dai
Established by Snow Jiang in 2019 in Shenzhen, China, Cheerful Music was a record label company that had created many hit songs in China. “Yi Xiao Jiang Hu,” its most famous hit song, gained billions of views on social media platforms in China and overseas as the... View Details
- November 2024 (Revised January 2025)
- Case
MiDAS: Automating Unemployment Benefits
By: Shikhar Ghosh and Shweta Bagai
In 2015, the state of Michigan considered whether to nominate its Michigan Integrated Data Automated System (MiDAS) for a prestigious state technology award. Launched in 2013 amid severe budget pressures, the $47 million automated fraud detection system was designed to... View Details
Keywords: Artificial Intelligence; AI; Machine Learning Models; Algorithmic Data; Automation; Benefits; Compensation; Cost Reduction; Government; Fraud; Government Technology; Public Sector; Systems; Systems Integration; Unemployment Insurance; Waste Heat Recovery; AI and Machine Learning; Government Administration; Information Technology; Insurance; Decision Making; Digital Transformation; Employment; Public Administration Industry; United States; Michigan
- 2024
- Working Paper
Climate Solutions, Transition Risk, and Stock Returns
By: Shirley Lu, Edward J. Riedl, Simon Xu and George Serafeim
Using large language models to measure firms' climate solution products and services, we find that high-climate solution firms exhibit lower stock returns and higher market valuation multiples. Their stock prices respond positively to events signaling increased demand... View Details
- November 2024
- Article
On the Representativeness of Voter Turnout
By: Louis Kaplow and Scott Duke Kominers
Prominent theory research on voting analyzes a variety of models in which expected pivotality drives voters' turnout decisions and hence determines voting outcomes. It is recognized, however, that such work is at odds with Downs's paradox: in practice, many... View Details