Publications
Publications
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- 2025
- Working Paper
Dynamic Personalization with Multiple Customer Signals: Multi-Response State Representation in Reinforcement Learning
Reinforcement learning (RL) offers potential for optimizing sequences of customer interactions by modeling the relationships
between customer states, company actions, and long-term value. However, its practical implementation often faces significant
challenges.... View Details
- November 2023
- Article
A Quantity-Driven Theory of Term Premia and Exchange Rates
We develop a model in which specialized bond investors must absorb shocks to the supply and demand for long-term bonds in two currencies. Since long-term bonds and foreign exchange are both exposed to unexpected movements in short-term interest rates, a shift in the... View Details
- 2023
- Working Paper
The Party and Firm
By: Joris Mueller, Jaya Y. Wen and Cheryl Wu
This project documents the rise of the Chinese Communist Party’s influence on
firms in China over the last decade. We propose novel quantitative measures of Party
influence and present recent trends in those measures. We corroborate qualitative work
and find a sharp... View Details
- March 16, 2023
- Other Article
How Putin Uses Hanoi’s 1960s Playbook to Divide the American Public on Foreign Policy
By: Jeremy Friedman
- Article
A Career Life-Cycle Perspective on Women's Health and Safety
By: Robert S. Kaplan, Chizoba L. Chukwura, Gregory H. Gorman, Vivian S. Lee, Chester B. Good, Kathleen L. Martin, Gregory A. Ator and Michael D. Parkinson
Women's health has demanded more attention from employers as women integrated into the workforce. Traditionally male-dominant fields and occupations require special attention to workplace design, physical standards for entry, employment practices, equipment, and health... View Details
- April 2022
- Article
Going Out or Opting Out? Capital, Political Vulnerability, and the State in China's Outward Investment
By: Meg Rithmire
How do state-business relations interact with outward investment in authoritarian regimes? This paper examines this question in the context of China’s rapid transformation into a major capital exporter. While most political economy scholarship focuses on firms’... View Details
- November 2021
- Article
The Nixon Doctrine and the Making of Authoritarianism in Island Southeast Asia
By: Mattias Fibiger
This article argues that the Nixon Doctrine was an instrument of authoritarianization in island Southeast Asia. It traces the formulation of the Nixon Doctrine and its implementation through foreign aid decisions, revealing that President Richard Nixon and his chief... View Details
- Article
Party-State Capitalism in China
By: Margaret Pearson, Meg Rithmire and Kellee Tsai
The “state capitalism” model, in which the state retains a dominant role as owner or investor-shareholder amidst the presence of markets and private firms, has received increasing attention, with China cited as the main exemplar. Yet as models evolve, so has China’s... View Details
Keywords: Economic Policy; Communism; Capitalism; State Capitalism; Economic Systems; Economics; Policy; China
- 2021
- Book
Global Goliaths: Multinational Corporations in the 21st Century Economy
By: C. Fritz Foley, James R. Hines Jr. and David Wessel
Globalization and multinational corporations have long seemed partners in the enterprise of economic growth: globalization-led prosperity was the goal, and giant corporations spanning the globe would help achieve it. In recent years, however, the notion that all... View Details
- March 2021 (Revised May 2021)
- Case
ALDDN: Advancing Local Dairy Development in Nigeria
By: Meg Rithmire and Debora L. Spar
In 2020, Ndidi Nwuneli, founder and CEO of Sahel Consulting in Nigeria, faced a thorny set of problems. Her firm partnered with the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation in a large project to develop the local dairy industry as a way to facilitate equitable growth and... View Details
- 2020
- Working Paper
Currency Hedging in Emerging Markets: Managing Cash Flow Exposure
By: Laura Alfaro, Mauricio Calani and Liliana Varela
Foreign currency derivative markets are among the largest in the world, yet their role in emerging markets in particular, is relatively understudied. We study firms' currency risk exposure and their hedging choices by employing a unique dataset covering the universe of... View Details
- Article
Tariff Passthrough at the Border and at the Store: Evidence from U.S. Trade Policy
By: Alberto Cavallo, Gita Gopinath, Brent Neiman and Jenny Tang
We use micro data collected at the border and the store to characterize the price impact of recent US trade policy on importers, exporters, and consumers. At the border, import tariff passthrough is much higher than exchange rate passthrough. Chinese exporters did not... View Details
Keywords: Trade Policy; Tariffs; Exchange Rate Passthrough; Economics; Trade; Policy; Currency Exchange Rate; Price; United States
- January 2021 (Revised August 2021)
- Case
ByteDance: TikTok and the Trials of Going Viral
By: William C. Kirby and John P. McHugh
In 2020, TikTok became the most valuable start-up ever. The short-form, video-sharing social media platform emerged as the crown jewel of the Chinese technology firm ByteDance, realizing 850 million monthly users and an estimated worth of $180 billion. However, a... View Details
Keywords: China; Technology; Startup; Start-up; International Strategy; Global Strategy And Leadership; Innovation; Political Risk; Regulations; Trump; Foreign Policy; Foreign Investment; Chinese Internet Market; Global Strategy; Crisis Management; Risk and Uncertainty; Entrepreneurship; Globalized Economies and Regions; Government Legislation; Innovation and Management; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Internet and the Web; Social Media; Technology Industry; China; United States
- December 2020
- Supplement
Tokio Marine Group (B)
By: David J. Collis, Nobuo Sato and Akiko Kanno
Updates the Tokio Marine (A) case by providing information on the organisation structure adopted by the Japanese insurance firm as it moved to integrate its global operations, along with changes in HR policies that sought to balance traditional Japanese practices with... View Details
- December 2020
- Article
Monetary Policy and Global Banking
By: Falk Bräuning and Victoria Ivashina
When central banks adjust interest rates, the opportunity cost of lending in local currency changes, but—in absence of frictions—there is no spillover effect to lending in other currencies. However, when equity capital is limited, global banks must benchmark domestic... View Details
- December 2020
- Article
Sovereign Debt Portfolios, Bond Risks, and the Credibility of Monetary Policy
By: Wenxin Du, Carolin Pflueger and Jesse Schreger
We document that governments whose local currency debt provides them with greater hedging benefits actually borrow more in foreign currency. We introduce two features into a government's debt portfolio choice problem to explain this finding: risk-averse lenders and... View Details
- 2020
- Working Paper
An Executive Order Worth $100 Billion: The Impact of an Immigration Ban's Announcement on Fortune 500 Firms' Valuation
By: Dany Bahar, Prithwiraj Choudhury and Britta Glennon
On June 22, 2020, President Trump issued an Executive Order (EO) that suspended new work visas, barring nearly 200,000 foreign workers and their dependents from entering the United States and preventing American companies from hiring skilled immigrants using H-1B or L1... View Details
Keywords: Visa; Foreign Workers; Fortune 500; Immigration; Policy; System Shocks; Business Ventures; Valuation
- 2023
- Working Paper
Fencing Off Silicon Valley: Cross-Border Venture Capital and Technology Spillovers
By: Ufuk Akcigit, Sina T. Ates, Josh Lerner, Richard Townsend and Yulia Zhestkova
The treatment of foreign investors is a contentious topic in U.S. entrepreneurship policy. We
model a setting where foreign corporate investments in Silicon Valley may allow U.S. entrepreneurs
to pursue technologies that they could not otherwise, but may also lead to... View Details
- 2020
- Chapter
Reserve Accumulation, Sovereign Debt, and Exchange Rate Policy
By: Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk
In the past decade, foreign participation in local-currency bond markets in emerging countries increased dramatically. Additionally, emerging countries are increasingly deviating from inflation targeting regimes, managing their exchange rate and engaging in... View Details
- June 2020
- Article
U.S. Monetary Policy and Emerging Market Credit Cycles
By: Falk Bräuning and Victoria Ivashina
Foreign banks’ lending to firms in emerging market economies (EMEs) is large and denominated predominantly in U.S. dollars. This creates a direct connection between U.S. monetary policy and EME credit cycles. We estimate that over a typical U.S. monetary easing cycle,... View Details
Keywords: Global Business Cycle; Monetary Policy; Reaching For Yield; Money; Policy; Credit; Emerging Markets