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- 2019
- Working Paper
Labor Market Shocks and the Demand for Trade Protection: Evidence from Online Surveys
By: Rafael Di Tella and Dani Rodrik
We study preferences for government action in response to layoffs resulting from different types of labor-market shocks. We consider the following shocks: technological change, a demand shift, bad management, and three kinds of international outsourcing. Respondents... View Details
Di Tella, Rafael, and Dani Rodrik. "Labor Market Shocks and the Demand for Trade Protection: Evidence from Online Surveys." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 25705, March 2019.
- December 1983
- Article
Dynamic Factor Demands and the Effects of Energy Price Shocks
By: J. J. Rotemberg and Robert Pindyck
Rotemberg, J. J., and Robert Pindyck. "Dynamic Factor Demands and the Effects of Energy Price Shocks." American Economic Review 73, no. 5 (December 1983): 1066–1079.
- 28 May 2019
- Working Paper Summaries
Labor Market Shocks and the Demand for Trade Protection: Evidence from Online Surveys
Keywords: by Rafael Di Tella and Dani Rodrik
- January 2022
- Article
Who Creates New Firms When Local Opportunities Arise?
By: Shai Benjamin Bernstein, Emanuele Colonnelli, Davide Malacrino and Timothy McQuade
We examine the characteristics of the individuals who become entrepreneurs when local opportunities arise. We identify local demand shocks by linking fluctuations in global commodity prices to municipality level agricultural endowments in Brazil. We find that the firm... View Details
Keywords: Firms; Entrepreneurs; Demand Shocks; Entrepreneurship; Personal Characteristics; Demographics; Opportunities; Brazil
Bernstein, Shai Benjamin, Emanuele Colonnelli, Davide Malacrino, and Timothy McQuade. "Who Creates New Firms When Local Opportunities Arise?" Journal of Financial Economics 143, no. 1 (January 2022): 107–130.
- March 2005
- Article
Short- and Long-term Demand Curves for Stocks: Theory and Evidence on the Dynamics of Arbitrage
By: Robin Greenwood
I develop a framework to analyze demand curves for multiple risky securities at extended horizons in a setting with limits-to-arbitrage. Following an unexpected change in uninformed investor demand for several assets, I predict returns of each security to be... View Details
Keywords: Limits To Arbitrage; Event Studies; Demand Curves; Portfolio Choice; Framework; Demand and Consumers; Change; Risk and Uncertainty; Debt Securities; Forecasting and Prediction; Stocks; Assets; Investment Portfolio; System Shocks; Price; Japan
Greenwood, Robin. "Short- and Long-term Demand Curves for Stocks: Theory and Evidence on the Dynamics of Arbitrage." Journal of Financial Economics 75, no. 3 (March 2005): 607–649.
- 2017
- Working Paper
The Importance of Unemployment Insurance as an Automatic Stabilizer
By: Marco Di Maggio and Amir Kermani
We assess the extent to which unemployment insurance (UI) serves as an automatic stabilizer to mitigate the economy's sensitivity to shocks. Using a local labor market design based on heterogeneity in local benefit generosity (defined as the percentage of household... View Details
Keywords: Unemployment Insurance; Automatic Stabilizers; Bartik Shocks; Aggregate Demand; System Shocks; Employment; Balance and Stability; Insurance; Volatility; Insurance Industry
Di Maggio, Marco, and Amir Kermani. "The Importance of Unemployment Insurance as an Automatic Stabilizer." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 17-009, July 2016. (Revise and Resubmit to American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics.)
- 01 Sep 2005
- News
Get Ready for Saudi Oil Shock
Photo Courtesy MATTHEW R. SIMMONS In his new book, Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy (John Wiley & Sons, 2005), Matthew Simmons (MBA ’67) sounds an alarm about a finite resource that he believes is... View Details
Do Voters Demand Responsive Governments?
Using rainfall, public relief, and election data from India, we examine how governments respond to adverse shocks and how voters react to these responses. The data show that voters punish the incumbent party for weather events beyond its control. However, fewer... View Details
- 2024
- Article
Supply and Demand and the Term Structure of Interest Rates
By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel Hanson and Dimitri Vayanos
We survey the growing literature emphasizing the role that supply-and-demand forces play in shaping the term structure of interest rates. Our starting point is the Vayanos and Vila (2009, 2021) model of the term structure of default-free bond yields, which we present... View Details
Greenwood, Robin, Samuel Hanson, and Dimitri Vayanos. "Supply and Demand and the Term Structure of Interest Rates." Annual Review of Financial Economics 16 (2024): 115–151.
- 2025
- Working Paper
Climate Risk and the U.S. Insurance Gap: Measurement, Drivers and Implications
By: Parinitha Sastry, Tess Scharlemann, Ishita Sen and Ana-Maria Tenekedjieva
In a world with rising risk, how much are U.S. households willing to pay for homeowners insurance, and what does their demand imply for the future of insurance markets? We provide the first estimates of household willingness to pay for homeowners insurance and the... View Details
Keywords: Climate Change; Risk and Uncertainty; Insurance; Personal Finance; Consumer Behavior; Mortgages
Sastry, Parinitha, Tess Scharlemann, Ishita Sen, and Ana-Maria Tenekedjieva. "The Limits of Insurance Demand and the Growing Protection Gap." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 25-054, February 2025.
- April–May 2024
- Article
Gone with the Big Data: Institutional Lender Demand for Private Information
By: Jung Koo Kang
I explore whether big-data sources can crowd out the value of private information acquired through lending relationships. Institutional lenders have been shown to exploit their access to borrowers’ private information by trading on it in financial markets. As a shock... View Details
Keywords: Analytics and Data Science; Borrowing and Debt; Financial Markets; Value; Knowledge Dissemination; Financing and Loans
Kang, Jung Koo. "Gone with the Big Data: Institutional Lender Demand for Private Information." Art. 101663. Journal of Accounting & Economics 77, nos. 2-3 (April–May 2024).
- 2012
- Article
Do Voters Demand Responsive Governments? Evidence from Indian Disaster Relief
By: Shawn Cole, Andrew Healy and Eric Werker
Using rainfall, public relief, and election data from India, we examine how governments respond to adverse shocks and how voters react to these responses. The data show that voters punish the incumbent party for weather events beyond its control. However, fewer voters... View Details
Keywords: Political Elections; System Shocks; Natural Disasters; Policy; Motivation and Incentives; Public Opinion; India
Cole, Shawn, Andrew Healy, and Eric Werker. "Do Voters Demand Responsive Governments? Evidence from Indian Disaster Relief." Journal of Development Economics 97, no. 2 (March 2012): 167–181.
- Winter 2022
- Article
Determinants of Small Business Reopening Decisions After COVID Restrictions Were Lifted
By: Dylan Balla-Elliott, Zoë B. Cullen, Edward L. Glaeser, Michael Luca and Christopher Stanton
The COVID-19 pandemic led to dramatic economic disruptions, including government-imposed restrictions that temporarily shuttered millions of American businesses. We use a nation-wide survey of thousands of small business owners to establish three main facts about... View Details
Keywords: COVID-19; Demand Forecasting; Reopening; Health Pandemics; Government Administration; Small Business
Balla-Elliott, Dylan, Zoë B. Cullen, Edward L. Glaeser, Michael Luca, and Christopher Stanton. "Determinants of Small Business Reopening Decisions After COVID Restrictions Were Lifted." Journal of Policy Analysis and Management 41, no. 1 (Winter 2022): 278–317.
- February 2025
- Article
Estimating Models of Supply and Demand: Instruments and Covariance Restrictions
By: Alexander MacKay and Nathan H. Miller
We consider the identification of empirical models of supply and demand with imperfect competition. We show that a restriction on the covariance between unobserved demand and cost shocks can resolve endogeneity and identify the price parameter. We demonstrate how to... View Details
Keywords: Demand Estimation; Identification; Endogeneity Bias; Covariance Restrictions; Ordinary Least Squares; Instrumental Variables; Price; Demand and Consumers; Competition
MacKay, Alexander, and Nathan H. Miller. "Estimating Models of Supply and Demand: Instruments and Covariance Restrictions." American Economic Journal: Microeconomics 71, no. 1 (February 2025): 238–281. (Direct download.)
- 2022
- Working Paper
On the Estimation of Demand-Based Asset Pricing Models
A growing literature uses portfolio holdings data to quantify the impact of investor demand on equilibrium prices via counterfactual experiments. The key parameter in relating demand and equilibrium prices is investors’ elasticity of demand with respect to the price.... View Details
van der Beck, Philippe. "On the Estimation of Demand-Based Asset Pricing Models." Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series, No. 22-67, May 2022.
- Fall 2019
- Article
Endogenous Productivity of Demand-Induced R&D: Evidence from Pharmaceuticals
By: Kyle Myers and Mark Pauly
We examine trends in the productivity of the pharmaceutical sector over the past three decades. Motivated by Ricardo’s insight that productivity and rents are endogenous to demand when inputs are scarce, we examine the industry’s aggregate R&D production function.... View Details
Keywords: Innovation; Productivity; Pharmaceuticals; Innovation and Invention; Performance Productivity; Pharmaceutical Industry
Myers, Kyle, and Mark Pauly. "Endogenous Productivity of Demand-Induced R&D: Evidence from Pharmaceuticals." RAND Journal of Economics 50, no. 3 (Fall 2019): 591–614.
- 2011
- Other Unpublished Work
Do Public and Private Firms Behave Differently? An Examination of Investment in the Chemical Industry
By: Albert W. Sheen
I compare the capacity expansion decisions of U.S. public and private producers of seven commodity chemicals from 1989-2006. I find that private firms invest differently, and more efficiently, than public firms. Specifically, private firms are more likely than public... View Details
Keywords: Private Ownership; Chemicals; Investment; Public Ownership; Chemical Industry; United States
Sheen, Albert W. "Do Public and Private Firms Behave Differently? An Examination of Investment in the Chemical Industry." July 2011.
- 2020
- Working Paper
EMEs and COVID-19: Shutting Down in a World of Informal and Tiny Firms
By: Laura Alfaro, Oscar Becerra and Marcela Eslava
Emerging economies are characterized by an extremely high prevalence of informality, small-firm employment and jobs not fit for working from home. These features factor into how the COVID-19 crisis has affected the economy. We develop a framework that, based on... View Details
Keywords: COVID-19; Emerging Economies; Informality; Firm-size Distribution; Health Pandemics; Developing Countries and Economies; Economy; System Shocks; Latin America
Alfaro, Laura, Oscar Becerra, and Marcela Eslava. "EMEs and COVID-19: Shutting Down in a World of Informal and Tiny Firms." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-125, June 2020. (See application of the methodology to Latin American Countries in the IMF Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere 2020, Chapter 3. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/REO/WH/Issues/2020/10/13/regional-economic-outlook-western-hemisphere.)
Endogenous Productivity of Demand-Induced R&D: Evidence from Pharmaceuticals
When people want more new drugs, firms are happy to invest in ideas that cost more. And as they run out of "low hanging fruit" while demand keeps growing, R&D costs will naturally grow.
Abstract: We examine trends in the productivity of the... View Details
Abstract: We examine trends in the productivity of the... View Details