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Publications
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- March 2025 (Revised April 2025)
- Case
Dominion Voting Systems v. Fox News
The case examines the Dominion Voting Systems and Fox News defamation settlement based upon statements made on air in the aftermath of the 2020 presidential election. View Details
Keywords: (General) Management; Business Earnings; Financial Statements; Change Management; Disruption; Volatility; Transition; Crime and Corruption; Cost vs Benefits; Decision Making; Decision Choices and Conditions; Decisions; Demographics; Ethics; Values and Beliefs; Corporate Finance; Cost; Governance; Governance Compliance; Governance Controls; Policy; Political Elections; Business History; Information; Law; Legal Liability; Laws and Statutes; Management; Marketing; Advertising; Media; Performance; Problems and Challenges; Society; Public Opinion; Social Issues; Media and Broadcasting Industry; United States
- 2025
- Working Paper
Causes and Extent of Increasing Partisan Segregation in the U.S. – Evidence from Migration Patterns of 212 Million Voters
By: Jacob R. Brown, Enrico Cantoni, Vincent Pons and Emilie Sartre
Using data on the residential location and migration for every voter in U.S. states recording partisan registration between 2008–2020, we find that residential segregation between Democrats and Republicans has increased year over year at all geographic levels, from... View Details
- November 2024
- Teaching Note
The Marshall Plan: The Politics and Economics of Europe's Recovery After World War II
By: Vincent Pons, Marco Tabellini and Vestal McIntyre
- 2024
- Working Paper
Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of U.S. Elections
By: Richard Calvo, Vincent Pons and Jesse M. Shapiro
Many observers have forecast large partisan shifts in the US electorate based on demographic trends. Such forecasts are appealing because demographic trends are often predictable even over long horizons. We backtest demographic forecasts using data on US elections... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
Voting Rules, Turnout, and Economic Policies
By: Enrico Cantoni, Vincent Pons and Jérôme Schäfer
In recent years, voter ID laws and convenience voting have generated heated partisan debates. To shed light on these policy issues, we survey the recent evidence on the institutional determinants and effects of voter turnout and broaden the perspective beyond the most... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
Social Movements and Public Opinion in the United States
By: Amory Gethin and Vincent Pons
Recent social movements stand out by their spontaneous nature and lack of stable leadership, raising doubts on their ability to generate political change. This article provides systematic evidence on the effects of protests on public opinion and political attitudes.... View Details
- March 2024 (Revised February 2025)
- Case
The Marshall Plan: The Politics and Economics of Europe's Recovery After World War II
By: Vincent Pons, Marco Tabellini and Vestal McIntyre
- October 2023
- Article
Coordination and Bandwagon Effects: How Past Rankings Shape the Behavior of Voters and Candidates
By: Riako Granzier, Vincent Pons and Clémence Tricaud
Candidates’ placements in polls or past elections can be powerful coordination devices for both parties and voters. Using a regression discontinuity design in French elections, we show that candidates who place first by only a small margin in the first round are more... View Details
- 2023
- Working Paper
The Effect of Childhood Environment on Political Behavior: Evidence from Young U.S. Movers, 1992–2021
By: Jacob R. Brown, Enrico Cantoni, Sahil Chinoy, Martin Koenen and Vincent Pons
We ask how childhood environment shapes political behavior. We measure young voters’ participation and party affiliation in nationally comprehensive voter files and reconstruct their childhood location histories based on their parents’ addresses. We compare outcomes of... View Details
- September 2023
- Article
Addressing Vaccine Hesitancy: Experimental Evidence from Nine Countries during the COVID-19 Pandemic
By: Vincenzo Galasso, Vincent Pons, Paola Profeta, Martin McKee, David Stuckler, Michael Becher, Sylvain Brouard and Martial Foucault
We study the impact of public health messages on intentions to vaccinate and vaccination uptakes, especially among hesitant groups. We performed an experiment comparing the effects of egoistic and altruistic messages on COVID-19 vaccine intentions and behaviour. We... View Details
- July 2023
- Teaching Note
The Business of Campaigns
By: Vincent Pons
Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 723-039. View Details
- 2023
- Working Paper
Keep Your Enemies Closer: Strategic Platform Adjustments during U.S. and French Elections
By: Rafael Di Tella, Randy Kotti, Caroline Le Pennec and Vincent Pons
A key tenet of representative democracy is that politicians' discourse and policies should follow voters' preferences. In the median voter theorem, this outcome emerges as candidates strategically adjust their platform to get closer to their opponent. Despite its... View Details
- June 2023
- Case
The Business of Campaigns
By: Vincent Pons and Mel Martin
In 2022, the U.S. Congress examined the Democracy Is Strengthened by Casting Light on Spending in Elections (DISCLOSE) Act, the latest in a long series of campaign finance reforms. According to its authors, the law would be the “most consequential overhaul of federal... View Details
- May 2023
- Article
How Do Campaigns Shape Vote Choice? Multi-Country Evidence from 62 Elections and 56 TV Debates
By: Caroline Le Pennec and Vincent Pons
We use two-round survey data from 62 elections in 10 countries since 1952 to study the formation of vote choice, beliefs, and policy preferences and assess how televised debates contribute to this process. Our data include 253,000 observations. We compare the... View Details
- February 2023
- Teaching Note
The Trouble with TCE
By: Vincent Pons and Rafael Di Tella
Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 721-031. View Details
- December 2022 (Revised March 2023)
- Teaching Note
Spanish Labor Law: Lifting all Boats or Leveling Down?
By: Vincent Pons
Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 722-008. View Details
- November 2022 (Revised March 2023)
- Teaching Note
Walmart Chile After the Unrest: Doubling Down or Pulling Out?
By: Vincent Pons, William Mullins and Ruth Costas
Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 722-012. View Details
- 2022
- Working Paper
Coordination and Incumbency Advantage in Multi-Party Systems: Evidence from French Elections
By: Kevin Dano, Francesco Ferlenga, Vincenzo Galasso, Caroline Le Pennec and Vincent Pons
In theory, free and fair elections can improve the selection of politicians and incentivize them to exert effort. In practice, incumbency advantage and coordination issues may lead to the (re)election of bad politicians. We ask whether these two forces compound each... View Details
- 2022
- Working Paper
Small Campaign Donors
By: Laurent Bouton, Julia Cagé, Edgard Dewitte and Vincent Pons
In this paper, we study the characteristics and behavior of small donors, and compare them to those of large donors. We first build a novel dataset including all the 340 million individual contributions reported to the U.S. Federal Election Commission between 2005 and... View Details