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Publications
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- May 2025
- Article
The Diffusion of New Technologies
By: Aakash Kalyani, Marcela Carvalho, Nicholas Bloom, Tarek Hassan, Josh Lerner and Ahmed Tahoun
We identify phrases associated with novel technologies using textual analysis of patents,
job postings, and earnings calls, enabling us to identify four stylized facts on the diffusion of jobs
relating to new technologies. First, the development of economically... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
Private Equity and Workers: Modeling and Measuring Monopsony, Implicit Contracts, and Efficient Reallocation
By: Kyle Herkenhoff, Josh Lerner, Gordon M. Phillips, Francisca Rebelo and Benjamin Sampson
We measure the real effects of private equity buyouts on worker outcomes by building a new
database that links transactions to matched employer-employee data in the United States. To
guide our empirical analysis, we derive testable implications from three theories in... View Details
- 2025
- Working Paper
Impact Investing and Worker Outcomes
By: Josh Lerner, Markus Lithell and Gordon M. Phillips
Impact investors claim to distinguish themselves from traditional venture capital and growth
equity investors by also pursuing environmental, social, and governance (ESG) objectives.
Whether they successfully do so in practice is unclear. We use confidential Census... View Details
- January 2025 (Revised March 2025)
- Case
Hunter Point Capital
By: Josh Lerner, John D. Dionne and Srimayi Mylavarapu
In the spring of 2023, Hunter Point Capital faced a pivotal decision that could define its trajectory as a new player in the growing GP stakes business. As the firm neared completion of three high-profile GP stakes investments, consuming nearly a third of its initial... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
Case Studies of the Emulation of Chinese Entrepreneurial Business Models
By: Josh Lerner, Junxi Liu, Jacob Moscona and David Yang
This working paper presents four short case studies of emerging market businesses whose founders emulated Chinese firms. These examples are part of a more systematic pattern, documented extensively in Lerner et al. (2024), in which businesses developed in China were... View Details
- July 2024
- Teaching Note
The Israeli Innovation Authority: Decision-Making in a Time of Uncertainty
By: Shai Bernstein, Josh Lerner and Sabrina T. Howell
Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 824-198. View Details
- May 2024
- Article
Financial Innovation in the 21st Century: Evidence from U.S. Patents
By: Josh Lerner, Amit Seru, Nick Short and Yuan Sun
We develop a unique dataset of 24 thousand U.S. finance patents granted over the last two decades to explore the evolution and production of financial innovation. We use machine learning to identify the financial patents and extensively audit the results to ensure... View Details
- April 2024 (Revised August 2024)
- Case
The Israeli Innovation Authority: Decision-making in a Time of Uncertainty
By: Shai Bernstein, Sabrina Howell and Josh Lerner
- Second Quarter 2024
- Article
Venture Capital in a Time of Turmoil
By: Josh Lerner
One area of consensus among academic
economists and policymakers is the need
for greater innovation. This concern is
rooted in worries about the lagging rate
of productivity growth in many Western
nations. In the U.S., for instance, the productivity growth rate... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
Appropriate Entrepreneurship? The Rise of China and the Developing World
By: Josh Lerner, Junxi Liu, Jacob Moscona and David Yang
Global innovation and entrepreneurship has traditionally been dominated by a handful
of high-income countries, especially the US. This paper investigates the international
consequences of the rise of a new hub for innovation, focusing on the dramatic
growth of... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
The Wandering Scholars: Understanding the Heterogeneity of University Commercialization
By: Josh Lerner, Henry Manley, Carolyn Stein and Heidi Williams
University-based scientific research has long been argued to be a central source of
commercial innovation and economic growth. Yet at the same time, there have been
long-held concerns that many university-based discoveries never realize their potential
social... View Details
- January 2024
- Article
Fencing Off Silicon Valley: Cross-Border Venture Capital and Technology Spillovers
By: Ufuk Akcigit, Sina T. Ates, Josh Lerner, Richard Townsend and Yulia Zhestkova
The treatment of foreign investors is a contentious topic in U.S. entrepreneurship policy. We
model a setting where foreign corporate investments in Silicon Valley may allow U.S. entrepreneurs to pursue technologies that they could not otherwise, but may also lead to... View Details
- 2023
- Working Paper
Learning by Investing: Entrepreneurial Spillovers from Venture Capital
By: Josh Lerner, Jinlin Li and Tong Liu
This paper studies how investing in venture capital (VC) affects the entrepreneurial outcomes of individual limited partners (LPs). Using comprehensive administrative data on entrepreneurial activities and VC fundraising and investments in China, we first document that... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
What Do Impact Investors Do Differently?
In recent years, impact investors – private investors who seek to generate simultaneously financial and social returns – have attracted intense interest and controversy. We analyze a novel, comprehensive data set of impact and traditional investors to assess how the... View Details
- August 2023
- Article
Anti-Corruption, Government Subsidies, and Innovation: Evidence from China
By: Lily Fang, Josh Lerner, Chaopeng Wu and Qi Zhang
We leverage an exogenous shock—the crackdown on corrupt Chinese officials beginning in 2012—and examine how the allocation of research subsidies and innovative outcomes were affected. We argue that the staggered removal of provincial heads on corruption charges during... View Details
- July 2023
- Article
Takahashi-Alexander Revisited: Modeling Private Equity Portfolio Outcomes Using Historical Simulations
By: Dawson Beutler, Alex Billias, Sam Holt, Josh Lerner and TzuHwan Seet
In 2001, Dean Takahashi and Seth Alexander of the Yale University Investments Office developed a deterministic model for estimating future cash flows and valuations for the Yale endowment’s private equity portfolio. Their model, which is simple and intuitive, is still... View Details
- February 2023 (Revised May 2023)
- Case
CalPERS Private Equity 2.0
By: Josh Lerner, John D. Dionne and Alys Ferragamo
Yup Kim, the Head of Investments, Private Equity at the California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CalPERS), reflected on the pension fund’s private equity strategy. In July of 2022, the fund was in the midst of a multi-year turnaround strategy with the goal to... View Details
- September 2022
- Teaching Note
Yinglan Tan: Scaling a Venture Capital Firm in Southeast Asia
By: Josh Lerner
Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 823-025. View Details
- 2022
- Working Paper
Racial Diversity in Private Capital Fundraising
By: Johan Cassel, Josh Lerner and Emmanuel Yimfor
Black- and Hispanic-owned funds control a very modest share of assets in the private capital
industry. We find that the sensitivity of follow-on fundraising to fund performance
is greater for minority-owned groups, particularly for underperforming groups. We... View Details
- August 2022
- Teaching Note
In-Q-Tel: Innovation On A Mission
By: Josh Lerner and Joshua Lev Krieger
Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 823-031. View Details