This episode in our climate adaptation series features HBS Professor John Macomber. John discusses how companies and governments need to incorporate climate resilience as they develop and finance real estate and infrastructure to address the risks of flooding, wildfire, extreme heat, drought, and sea level rise. John describes “five R” options to address these risks—to reinforce, rebound, retreat, restrict, and rebuild—and highlights best practices from insurance companies and the governments of Amsterdam, Rotterdam, and Singapore. He also identifies entrepreneurial opportunities to foster adaptation and resilience.
We are not doomed! TEDx Boston
The risk profiles of many real estate markets are rapidly increasing globally. Insurers and mortgage brokers are taking note and adjusting their offering based on widely available climate data and predictive analytics. John Macomber suggests that consumers and businesses should be leveraging this data, as well. As impacts of increased flooding, drought, wildfires, and storms are hitting people's wallets, he points to the opportunities to make smart financial decisions weighing resilience and risk. By leveraging massive data stores that can be parsed and used predictively in the same way investors rely on these insights for stocks and interest rates, climate risk can turn into financial opportunity. And we can make better collective decisions about where to live and what to reinforce, adapt, rebuild, or abandon.
(Harvard University Press, 2022)
For too long we’ve designed buildings that haven’t focused on the people inside—their health, their ability to work effectively, and what that means for the bottom line. An authoritative introduction to a movement whose vital importance is now all too clear, Healthy Buildings breaks down the science and makes a compelling business case for creating healthier offices, schools, and homes.
As the COVID-19 crisis brought into sharp focus, indoor spaces can make you sick—or keep you healthy. Fortunately, we now have the know-how and technology to keep people safe indoors. But there is more to securing your office, school, or home than wiping down surfaces. Levels of carbon dioxide, particulates, humidity, pollution, and a toxic soup of volatile organic compounds from everyday products can influence our health in ways people aren’t always aware of.
This landmark book, revised and updated with the latest research since the COVID-19 pandemic, lays out a compelling case for more environmentally friendly and less toxic offices, schools, and homes. It features a concise explanation of disease transmission indoors, and provides tips for making buildings the first line of defense. At the center of the great convergence of green, smart, and safe buildings, healthy buildings are vital to the push for more sustainable urbanization that will shape our future.
By 2050 the number of people living in cities will have nearly doubled, to 6 billion, and the problems created by this rampant urbanization are among the most important challenges of our time. Of all resource-management issues, the author argues, water, electricity, and transit deserve the greatest focus. Every other service a competitive city provides—functional housing, schools, hospitals, stores, police and fire departments, heating, cooling, waste management—depends on a reliable infrastructure for those three resources.
Many corporations and investors assume that fixing cities is the purview of government. But governments around the world are stuck—financially, politically, or both. Implementing solutions to the problems of urbanization requires large amounts of capital, exceptional managerial skill, and significant alignment of interests. All these abound in the private sector.
Thus major opportunities exist for businesses that can create and claim value by improving resource efficiency. The products and services that new (or legacy) cities will require, and that provide the return investors and entrepreneurs need, optimize both technological sophistication and financial sophistication—approaches designed to attract capital by offering different levels of risk and return, different cash-flow priorities, and opportunities for both short-term and long-term investment.
The author cites a number of companies that have moved toward or into what he calls “the efficiency frontier.” These include Sarvajal, in India, which saves money and eliminates waste by selling direct to customers through its “water ATMs”; the Boston-based EnerNOC, which manages electricity production and consumption to reduce spikes in demand; and EMBARQ, based in Washington, DC, which coordinates the interests of business and government to organize city transit services.
Most people don’t have a strategy for for how to handle the worsening perils of flooding, wildfires and extreme heat. They should adopt a four step process for protecting their property, whether it be a home or a business. First, they should prioritize how important climate risk is compared to other risks. Then, they should do whatever they can to transfer climate risk to others; classically, this can be done through insurance. Next, they should take steps to avoid exposure, either by relocating or selling their property. Finally, they should take steps to minimize damage following a storm or wildfire by “hardening” their property, rehearsing and refining their prepared response in the case of an emergency and putting in place a plan to rebuilt (by, for instance, having prior arrangements with remediation companies and builders). Families, organizations, and businesses need to assess how big these exposures really are for them — and act now to prioritize, transfer, avoid, or minimize before the next “big one” hits.
Reinforce, Retreat, Rebound, Restrict, Rebuild
As fires, floods, and droughts increasingly threaten homes, businesses, and other institutions, climate risk has become financial risk. Mortgages written on homes in exposed locations are being shed by banks and absorbed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, government-backed mortgage guarantors. This implies that homeowners and investors have been making location decisions without properly pricing the cost of potential peril, and that the government has been enabling the oversight. Some are even warning that this market failure could lead to a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis, which was also triggered by bad mortgages.
It’s not just homeowners investing recklessly — many businesses have been equally short-sighted in where they place new assets, and what to do with existing assets in once-safe areas now threatened by these perils. We can’t just keep piling sandbags, pumping basements, dousing flames, and expecting government bailouts forever; a methodology is needed for homeowners, businesses, mortgage holders, governments — all of society — to figure out which assets to reinforce and what other courses of action are available.
Lancet COVID-19 Commission Task Force on Safe School, Safe Work, Safe Travel
The Lancet COVID-19 Commission was an interdisciplinary initiative encompassing the health sciences, business, finance, and public policy. The Lancet COVID-19 Commission’s final report was published on September 15, 2022. The final report included input from 11 Task Forces in areas ranging from vaccine development to humanitarian relief strategies, safe workplaces, and global economic recovery.
Experts from the Lancet COVID-19 Commission’s Task Force on Safe School, Safe Work, and Safe Travel have identified the following four key actions that represent the most effective, fundamental steps toward promoting healthier indoor environments and reducing the risk of airborne infectious disease transmission indoors.
Flood, wildfire, mortgages, insurance, algorithms, derivatives, infrastructure, and
migration.
In 2008, a collapse in housing prices triggered a global financial crisis. John Macomber, a senior lecturer at Harvard Business School, believes history may be about to repeat itself — this time caused by our failure to acknowledge and confront the perils posed by a changing climate. The financial system hasn’t correctly priced in the risk from fires, floods and storms. If the correction happens suddenly, the collapse in housing prices could spread through the financial system. The incoming presidential administration must take politically unpopular steps to avoid this scenario.
Sonoma County experienced devastating wildfires in 2017, 2019, and 2020 — and was on high alert in 2018 because of high-risk conditions and nearby catastrophic fires that contributed to poor local air quality. The compounding challenges of wildfires and the coronavirus pandemic in 2020 and 2021 led to a public health emergency and extraordinary economic disruption that severely burdened local governments, community members, and businesses.
The ULI panel’s approach comprised three key elements: resilience, equity, and community essence. By using climate resilience as a reference frame, recognizing that wildfires disproportionately impact marginalized people and celebrating Sonoma County’s unique character, the report arrived at 40 key recommendations regarding land use to enhance wildfire resilience; energy and economic resilience; housing, development and urban planning; and equitable governance and making the business case.
A truly smart smart city investment requires looking at three dimensions: characteristics of cities, capital requirements for various initiatives, and the decision-making process. I suggest decision makers in these initiatives follow an analytical sequence of situation, solution, and sovereignty.
Following the election of Donald Trump, spending on American infrastructure appears to be one area where Democrats and Republicans can agree—at least in principle. Trump has pledged to push for $1 trillion of new spending on roads, bridges, and more; but some Democrats (and some conservatives too) have criticized how Trump plans to find the money. John Macomber, a senior lecturer in the finance unit at Harvard Business School, has studied infrastructure financing around the world. In a written email exchange, he shared his thoughts on the future of U.S. infrastructure spending, investment, and delivery.
The prospect of urban innovation excites the imagination. But dreaming up what a “smart city” will look like in some gleaming future is, by its nature, a utopian exercise. The messy truth is that cities are not the same, and even the most innovative approach can never achieve universal impact. What’s appealing for intellectuals in Copenhagen or Amsterdam is unlikely to help millions of workers in Jakarta or Lagos.
To really make a difference, private entrepreneurs and civic entrepreneurs need to match projects to specific circumstances. An effective starting point is to break cities into four segments across two distinctions: legacy vs. new cities, and developed vs. emerging economies. The opportunities to innovate will differ greatly by segment.
Texas Grid Crisis, California Wildfires and "Work from Anywhere" Highlight Health
at Home
The February 2021 freeze in Texas carries enormous long-term cleanup and health costs. Such climate-related disasters will be increasingly common in the coming years. As businesses shift to work-from-home, the line of responsibility for the workplace also changes — and goes outside “the office” or “the factory.” Investments should extend beyond traditional workplaces right into people’s houses and apartments. Long-term, investing in employee-housing resilience will pay off in the form of healthier and more productive employees and customers.
Three irreversible trends -- realization of the deep downside of bad public health and bad buildings; the access to and democratization of air quality data; and the relaxation of the need to be present in-person, face-to-face, day-to-day -- will forever change the trajectory of how we use, perceive, design, and retrofit buildings.
Podcast: A conversation with building expert John Macomber on how to make offices
safe to return to after COVID-19 - and beyonc.
John Macomber, senior lecturer at Harvard Business School and a veteran of the real estate industry, was studying ways to make workplaces safer for employees long before the Covid-19 crisis hit. Now that issues like air and water quality are top of mind, he is encouraging organizations to think more holistically about the buildings in which they operate, balancing cost efficiency and even eco-friendliness with investments in improvements that boost health. Studies show this will not only stop workers from getting sick; it will also enhance productivity, which ultimately helps the bottom line.
Health insurers might start contributing upfront capital to make buildings healthier; personal air quality monitors sharing data into the cloud might change the tenant/landlord negotiating dynamic. Investors, lenders, rating agencies, and even ESG + H funds will pay attention.
Building health is today a top priority for owners and tenants, but how do we know
our offices are safe to re-enter?
As we start to think about returning to work, shopping, and recreation, there is much talk about transformed workplaces and innovative social distancing designs. But how will companies, workers, and customers have confidence that these new measures will actually be effective at protecting them?
Many claims will be made over the next few weeks and months that stores, restaurants, offices, and processing plants are now at a level of reasonable safety to open up. Much media attention has been paid to easing restrictions—basically increasing the available supply of offices, restaurants, colleges, stores, and factories. The demand side should be of equal or greater concern: Will shoppers, diners, students, and workers feel safe returning? How can they be comfortable that the space is safe beyond just taking someone’s word for it?
Cautious and shell-shocked employees and customers—as well as skittish lenders and insurance companies—can be expected to look for some objective standard of reasonable care before they will concur that indoor environments are reasonably safe. There are likely to be do-it-yourselfers, top shelf evaluators—and charlatans. You will need to be able to tell them apart.
What to Ask For: What Gets Measured Gets Done. Here are key requirements to ask of any service provider offering to certify your work setting as a healthy building. These best practices apply for employers, employees, and customers alike.
Buildings That Fight Disease and Promote Health
The pandemic spawned by the novel coronavirus has forced a global reckoning with the awesome power of infectious diseases to grind economies to a halt. The forced lockdowns and retreat into home isolation has also given us a heightened awareness of the role our surroundings play in our health and wellbeing.
Locked in a global battle for talent, the business leaders we spoke with were eager to find new ways to attract, retain, and enhance the performance of their employees. Few of them realized that their buildings could play a vital role in the health of their business. In response to Covid-19, that’s rapidly changing. CEOs from companies large and small have come out of the woodwork to engage with us on how to design, operate, and manage better buildings. Calls are also coming in from groups that run medical offices and dental clinics, hotels, schools, airports, and theaters, as well as mid-size law firms and small businesses in both small towns and major metropolitan areas.
Consider: Probability, Selection, Migration
Are there immediate steps business and government should take to address climate change? Somewhere between trillion-dollar solutions and the next eco-calamity are opportunities to take action. My research indicates we need to go beyond observing wreckage and pondering trillion-dollar plans to attempt to mitigate carbon. Businesses, homeowners, and local governments must focus on what can be done today to address these direct threats to people and property. There are three major tools in the "what to do next" approach: probability, selection, and migration.
Addressing Sprawl, the Footprint Problem, and Finance with Pay-for-Success Tools
Today’s mega-cities have a footprint problem. They are developing horizontally, not vertically, with vast areas of low sprawl reaching out for miles from Sao Paolo, Lagos, New Delhi, Guangzhou, Jakarta, and many others. A central question our civilization must address is how we can avoid becoming a planet of informal slums.
Pay-for-success may not be a universal panacea to address the footprint problem and its underlying causes. But it’s a potentially powerful way to mobilize vast pools of global capital toward multisector thinking, working toward a common good that none of the parties currently seems able to finance.
Technology can help balance the cost / revenue equation
The MBTA faces the same problems that confront every transit system in the world: Riders want to pay less in fares and taxpayers want to contribute less in subsidies. In exchange, everyone wants to receive more safety, more reliability, more frequency, longer routes, and later hours.
These opposing financial forces never add up. But new technologies and modern business models, many invented in Massachusetts, could vastly improve the balance of this age-old equation