• October 2024
• Case

This case study examines the diversification and transformation of Edizione, the Benetton family's holding company originally established to reinvest dividends from the Benetton clothing brand. Edizione expanded significantly in the late 1990s and early 2000s, particularly through the acquisition of public assets, including Italy's highway network. The company faced a major crisis when a bridge under its management collapsed, resulting in the deaths of 43 people. Under the leadership of Alessandro Benetton, the second generation of the family took control and steered the company through the crisis. They sold the highway business to the Italian government, successfully resisted a hostile takeover, and implemented new governance structures to guide the company's future. The case study asks students what is left of the family legacy and how should the holding manage its assets in the future, in particular if it should sell the loss-making Benetton fashion brand.

• 2024
• Chapter

What is a realistic and positive outcome for US-China relations in the realm of global finance over the next ten years? While some policymakers, especially in the US, have feared that China holds ambitions for the renminbi (RMB) to replace the dollar as a global reserve currency, we argue that this is far from the case. China’s ambitions have been to internationalize the renminbi, but, as a result of domestic financial turmoil and a reckoning over the tradeoffs of sovereignty and currency internationalization, those ambitions have been moderated substantially over the last decade. We argue that the US ought to encourage renminbi internationalization as a costless means of assurance to China, to incentivize reform and moderation, and to encourage a system of monetary co-existence that neither strains the dollar nor generates a bifurcated global financial system.

• 2024
• Working Paper

Many observers have forecast large partisan shifts in the US electorate based on demographic trends. Such forecasts are appealing because demographic trends are often predictable even over long horizons. We backtest demographic forecasts using data on US elections since 1952. We envision a forecaster who fits a model using data from a given election and uses that model, in tandem with a projection of demographic trends, to predict future elections. Even a forecaster with perfect knowledge of future demographic trends would have performed poorly over this period—worse even than one who simply guesses that each election will have a 50-50 partisan split. Enriching the set of demographics available does not change this conclusion. We discuss both mechanical and economic reasons for this finding, and show suggestive evidence that parties adjust their platforms in accordance with changes in the electorate.