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- July 2024
- Article
The Home State Effect: How Subnational Governments Shape Climate Coalitions
By: Jonas Meckling and Samuel Trachtman
Organized business interests often seek to block public interest regulations. But whether firms oppose regulation depends on institutional context. We argue that, in federal systems, sub-national policies and politics can have a home state effect on firms' national...
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Meckling, Jonas, and Samuel Trachtman. "The Home State Effect: How Subnational Governments Shape Climate Coalitions." Governance 37, no. 3 (July 2024): 887–905.
- 2024
- Working Paper
Incrementality Representation Learning: Synergizing Past Experiments for Intervention Personalization
This paper introduces Incrementality Representation Learning (IRL), a novel multitask representation learning framework that predicts heterogeneous causal effects of marketing interventions. By leveraging past experiments, IRL efficiently designs and targets...
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Keywords:
Heterogeneous Treatment Effect;
Multi-task Learning;
Representation Learning;
Personalization;
Promotion;
Deep Learning;
Field Experiments;
Customer Focus and Relationships;
Customization and Personalization
Huang, Ta-Wei, Eva Ascarza, and Ayelet Israeli. "Incrementality Representation Learning: Synergizing Past Experiments for Intervention Personalization." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-076, June 2024.
- 2024
- Working Paper
Winner Take All: Exploiting Asymmetry in Factorial Designs
By: Matthew DosSantos DiSorbo, Iavor I. Bojinov and Fiammetta Menchetti
Researchers and practitioners have embraced factorial experiments to simultaneously test multiple treatments, each with different levels. With the rise of technologies like Generative AI, factorial experimentation has become even more accessible: it is easier than ever...
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Keywords:
Factorial Designs;
Fisher Randomizations;
Rank Estimators;
Employer Interventions;
Causal Inference;
Mathematical Methods;
Performance Improvement
DosSantos DiSorbo, Matthew, Iavor I. Bojinov, and Fiammetta Menchetti. "Winner Take All: Exploiting Asymmetry in Factorial Designs." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-075, June 2024.
- June 2024
- Article
The Monitoring Role of Social Media
By: Jonas Heese and Joseph Pacelli
In this study, we examine whether social media activity can reduce corporate misconduct. We use the staggered introduction of 3G mobile broadband access across the United States to identify exogenous increases in social media activity and test whether access to 3G...
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Keywords:
Corporate Misconduct;
Twitter;
Corporate Accountability;
Mobile and Wireless Technology;
Social and Collaborative Networks
Heese, Jonas, and Joseph Pacelli. "The Monitoring Role of Social Media." Review of Accounting Studies 29, no. 2 (June 2024): 1666–1706.
- 2024
- Working Paper
What Is Newsworthy? Theory and Evidence
By: Luis Armona, Matthew Gentzkow, Emir Kamenica and Jesse M. Shapiro
We study newsworthiness in theory and practice. We focus on situations in which a news outlet observes the realization of a state of the world and must decide whether to report the realization to a consumer who pays an opportunity cost to consume the report. The...
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Armona, Luis, Matthew Gentzkow, Emir Kamenica, and Jesse M. Shapiro. "What Is Newsworthy? Theory and Evidence." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 32512, May 2024.
- 2024
- Working Paper
Business Experiments as Persuasion
By: Orie Shelef, Rebecca Karp and Robert Wuebker
Much of the prior work on experimentation rests upon the assumption that entrepreneurs and managers use—or should optimally adopt—a "scientific approach" to test possible decisions before making them. This paper offers an alternative view of experimental strategy,...
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Shelef, Orie, Rebecca Karp, and Robert Wuebker. "Business Experiments as Persuasion." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-065, March 2024.
- April 2024
- Article
A Machine Learning Algorithm Predicting Risk of Dilating VUR among Infants with Hydronephrosis Using UTD Classification
By: Hsin-Hsiao Scott Wang, Michael Lingzhi Li, Dylan Cahill, John Panagides, Tanya Logvinenko, Jeanne Chow and Caleb Nelson
Backgrounds: Urinary Tract Dilation (UTD) classification has been designed to be a more objective grading system to evaluate antenatal and post-natal UTD. Due to unclear association between UTD classifications to specific anomalies such as vesico-ureteral reflux (VUR),...
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Wang, Hsin-Hsiao Scott, Michael Lingzhi Li, Dylan Cahill, John Panagides, Tanya Logvinenko, Jeanne Chow, and Caleb Nelson. "A Machine Learning Algorithm Predicting Risk of Dilating VUR among Infants with Hydronephrosis Using UTD Classification." Journal of Pediatric Urology 20, no. 2 (April 2024): 271–278.
- April 2024
- Article
Demand-and-Supply Imbalance Risk and Long-Term Swap Spreads
By: Samuel G. Hanson, Aytek Malkhozov and Gyuri Venter
We develop and test a model in which swap spreads are determined by end users' demand for
and constrained intermediaries’ supply of long-term interest rate swaps. Swap spreads reflect
compensation both for using scarce intermediary capital and for bearing convergence...
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Keywords:
Swap Spreads;
Credit Derivatives and Swaps;
Interest Rates;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Volatility
Hanson, Samuel G., Aytek Malkhozov, and Gyuri Venter. "Demand-and-Supply Imbalance Risk and Long-Term Swap Spreads." Art. 103814. Journal of Financial Economics 154 (April 2024).
- April 2024
- Teaching Note
eBee: Affordable Mobility for Africa
By: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell, Gamze Yucaoglu and Jordan Mitchell
The case opens in March 2023, as Sten van der Ham and Jaap Maljers, CEO and co-founder of eBee, an electric bike (e-bike) company in Africa, are contemplating the different avenues for growth and path to profitability for the young and ambitious company. In 2023, the...
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- March 2024
- Case
Biomanufacturing Decentralization by Stämm
By: Paul A. Gompers, Jenyfeer Martínez Buitrago and Mariana Cal
In Buenos Aires, Argentina, cousins Llamazares and D’Alvia founded Stämm, a startup based on the idea of decentralizing biomanufacturing processes and downsizing biotech facilities. After raising its seed and series A rounds, and while finalizing its series B round in...
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Keywords:
Business Model;
Business Startups;
Entrepreneurship;
Venture Capital;
Selection and Staffing;
Technological Innovation;
Science-Based Business;
Business Strategy;
Commercialization;
Growth and Development Strategy;
Product Launch;
Research and Development;
Biotechnology Industry;
Latin America;
South America;
Argentina;
Buenos Aires
- 2024
- Working Paper
Anytime-Valid Inference in Linear Models and Regression-Adjusted Causal Inference
By: Michael Lindon, Dae Woong Ham, Martin Tingley and Iavor I. Bojinov
Linear regression adjustment is commonly used to analyze randomized controlled experiments due to its efficiency and robustness against model misspecification. Current testing and interval estimation procedures leverage the asymptotic distribution of such estimators to...
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Lindon, Michael, Dae Woong Ham, Martin Tingley, and Iavor I. Bojinov. "Anytime-Valid Inference in Linear Models and Regression-Adjusted Causal Inference." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-060, March 2024.
- 2023
- Working Paper
Design-Based Inference for Multi-arm Bandits
By: Dae Woong Ham, Iavor I. Bojinov, Michael Lindon and Martin Tingley
Multi-arm bandits are gaining popularity as they enable real-world sequential decision-making across application areas, including clinical trials, recommender systems, and online decision-making. Consequently, there is an increased desire to use the available...
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Ham, Dae Woong, Iavor I. Bojinov, Michael Lindon, and Martin Tingley. "Design-Based Inference for Multi-arm Bandits." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-056, March 2024.
- 2021
- Working Paper
Quantifying the Value of Iterative Experimentation
By: Iavor I Bojinov and Jialiang Mao
Over the past decade, most technology companies and a growing number of conventional firms have adopted online experimentation (or A/B testing) into their product development process. Initially, A/B testing was deployed as a static procedure in which an experiment was...
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Bojinov, Iavor I., and Jialiang Mao. "Quantifying the Value of Iterative Experimentation." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-059, March 2024.
- March 2024
- Article
The Asymmetric Mispricing Information in Analysts’ Target Prices
By: Jeremiah Green, John R. M. Hand and Anywhere Sikochi
We study the mispricing information present in the target prices of U.S. and international analysts. We hypothesize that asymmetry in the value-relevance of the information that managers supply to analysts, combined with asymmetry in the incentives facing analysts to...
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Keywords:
Analysts;
Target Prices;
Mispricing;
Cost Of Equity;
Valuation;
Price;
Cost;
Analysis;
Theory
Green, Jeremiah, John R. M. Hand, and Anywhere Sikochi. "The Asymmetric Mispricing Information in Analysts’ Target Prices." Review of Accounting Studies 29, no. 1 (March 2024): 889–915.
- February 9, 2024
- Article
Addressing Climate Change with Behavioral Science: A Global Intervention Tournament in 63 Countries
By: Madalina Vlasceanu, Kimberly C. Doell, Joseph B. Bak-Coleman, Boryana Todorova, Michael M. Berkebile-Weinberg, Amit Goldenberg, Eric Shuman and et al.
Effectively reducing climate change requires marked, global behavior change. However, it is unclear which strategies are most likely to motivate people to change their climate beliefs and behaviors. Here, we tested 11 expert-crowdsourced interventions on four climate...
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Keywords:
Climate Change;
Motivation and Incentives;
Behavior;
Policy;
Knowledge Sharing;
Values and Beliefs
Vlasceanu, Madalina, Kimberly C. Doell, Joseph B. Bak-Coleman, Boryana Todorova, Michael M. Berkebile-Weinberg, Amit Goldenberg, Eric Shuman, and et al. "Addressing Climate Change with Behavioral Science: A Global Intervention Tournament in 63 Countries." Science Advances 10, no. 6 (February 9, 2024).
- 2023
- Working Paper
'De Gustibus' and Disputes about Reference Dependence
By: Thomas Graeber, Pol Campos-Mercade, Lorenz Goette, Alexandre Kellogg and Charles Sprenger
Existing tests of reference-dependent preferences assume universal loss aversion. This paper examines the implications of heterogeneity in gain-loss attitudes for such tests. In experiments on labor supply and exchange behavior we measure gain-loss attitudes and then...
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Graeber, Thomas, Pol Campos-Mercade, Lorenz Goette, Alexandre Kellogg, and Charles Sprenger. "'De Gustibus' and Disputes about Reference Dependence." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-046, January 2024.
- February 2024
- Module Note
Data-Driven Marketing in Retail Markets
By: Ayelet Israeli
This note describes an eight-class sessions module on data-driven marketing in retail markets. The module aims to familiarize students with core concepts of data-driven marketing in retail, including exploring the opportunities and challenges, adopting best practices,...
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Keywords:
Data;
Data Analytics;
Retail;
Retail Analytics;
Data Science;
Business Analytics;
"Marketing Analytics";
Omnichannel;
Omnichannel Retailing;
Omnichannel Retail;
DTC;
Direct To Consumer Marketing;
Ethical Decision Making;
Algorithmic Bias;
Privacy;
A/B Testing;
Descriptive Analytics;
Prescriptive Analytics;
Predictive Analytics;
Analytics and Data Science;
E-commerce;
Marketing Channels;
Demand and Consumers;
Marketing Strategy;
Retail Industry
Israeli, Ayelet. "Data-Driven Marketing in Retail Markets." Harvard Business School Module Note 524-062, February 2024.
- February 2024
- Case
Compass Pathways: Pioneering Psychedelic Treatment
By: Tiona Zuzul, Kisha Lashley and Gamze Yucaoglu
This case follows Compass Pathways, a pioneering company developing treatment for depression based on psilocybin, the compound found in ‘magic mushrooms.’ Psilocybin was a federally illegal substance in the U.S., and a “Schedule I” drug, defined as a drug “with no...
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Keywords:
Commercialization;
Corporate Strategy;
Competitive Strategy;
Product Launch;
Health Testing and Trials;
Research and Development;
Laws and Statutes;
Pharmaceutical Industry;
Europe;
United States;
United Kingdom
Zuzul, Tiona, Kisha Lashley, and Gamze Yucaoglu. "Compass Pathways: Pioneering Psychedelic Treatment." Harvard Business School Case 724-412, February 2024.
- February 2024
- Article
Conveying and Detecting Listening in Live Conversation
By: Hanne Collins, Julia A. Minson, Ariella S. Kristal and Alison Wood Brooks
Across all domains of human social life, positive perceptions of conversational listening (i.e., feeling heard) predict well-being, professional success, and interpersonal flourishing. But a fundamental question remains: Are perceptions of listening accurate? Prior...
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Collins, Hanne, Julia A. Minson, Ariella S. Kristal, and Alison Wood Brooks. "Conveying and Detecting Listening in Live Conversation." Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 153, no. 2 (February 2024): 473–494.
- February 2024
- Article
Pricing Power in Advertising Markets: Theory and Evidence
By: Matthew Gentzkow, Jesse M. Shapiro, Frank Yang and Ali Yurukoglu
Existing theories of media competition imply that advertisers will pay a lower price in equilibrium to reach consumers who multi-home across competing outlets. We generalize, extend, and test this prediction. We find that television outlets whose viewers watch more...
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Gentzkow, Matthew, Jesse M. Shapiro, Frank Yang, and Ali Yurukoglu. "Pricing Power in Advertising Markets: Theory and Evidence." American Economic Review 114, no. 2 (February 2024): 500–533.