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- February 15, 2024
- Article
What Does Banning Short-Term Rentals Really Accomplish?
By: Sophie Calder-Wang, Chiara Farronato and Andrey Fradkin
Concerns that short-term rentals fueled by platforms like Airbnb have caused long-term rents to rise in major cities has caused some governments to place limits, including bans, on them. But research of New York City found that short-term rentals are not the biggest...
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Calder-Wang, Sophie, Chiara Farronato, and Andrey Fradkin. "What Does Banning Short-Term Rentals Really Accomplish?" Harvard Business Review Digital Articles (February 15, 2024).
- January 11, 2024
- Article
Understanding the Tradeoffs of the Amazon Antitrust Case
By: Chiara Farronato, Andrey Fradkin, Andrei Hagiu and Dionne Lomax
Regulators in the United States and Europe have been taking on Big Tech, challenging what they say are the companies’ anti-competitive and predatory strategies that harm consumers and third-party users of their platforms. This article examines the FTC’s case against...
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Keywords:
Monopoly;
Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms;
Market Design;
Lawsuits and Litigation
Farronato, Chiara, Andrey Fradkin, Andrei Hagiu, and Dionne Lomax. "Understanding the Tradeoffs of the Amazon Antitrust Case." Harvard Business Review Digital Articles (January 11, 2024).
- 2023
- Working Paper
How People Use Statistics
By: Pedro Bordalo, John J. Conlon, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon and Andrei Shleifer
We document two new facts about the distributions of answers in famous statistical problems: they are i) multi-modal and ii) unstable with respect to irrelevant changes in the problem. We offer a model in which, when solving a problem, people represent each hypothesis...
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Bordalo, Pedro, John J. Conlon, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon, and Andrei Shleifer. "How People Use Statistics." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 31631, August 2023.
- May 2023
- Article
Self-Preferencing at Amazon: Evidence from Search Rankings
By: Chiara Farronato, Andrey Fradkin and Alexander MacKay
We study whether Amazon engages in self-preferencing on its marketplace by favoring its own brands (e.g., Amazon Basics) in search. To address this question, we collect new micro-level consumer search data using a custom browser extension installed by a panel of study...
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Farronato, Chiara, Andrey Fradkin, and Alexander MacKay. "Self-Preferencing at Amazon: Evidence from Search Rankings." AEA Papers and Proceedings 113 (May 2023): 239–243.
- 2023
- Working Paper
A Welfare Analysis of Gambling in Video Games
By: Tomomichi Amano and Andrey Simonov
In 2020, gamers worldwide spent more than $15 billion on loot boxes, a lottery of virtual items built into video games. Loot boxes are contentious, as regulators worry that they constitute gambling. In contrast, video game companies maintain that loot boxes are...
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Keywords:
Consumer Behavior;
Policy;
Games, Gaming, and Gambling;
Product Design;
Video Game Industry
Amano, Tomomichi, and Andrey Simonov. "A Welfare Analysis of Gambling in Video Games." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-052, February 2023.
- 2022
- Working Paper
Overreaction and Diagnostic Expectations in Macroeconomics
By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer
We present the case for the centrality of overreaction in expectations for addressing important challenges in finance and macroeconomics. First, non-rational expectations by market participants can be measured and modeled in ways that address some of the key challenges...
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Keywords:
Overreaction;
Rational Expectations;
Macroeconomics;
Market Participation;
Social Psychology
Bordalo, Pedro, Nicola Gennaioli, and Andrei Shleifer. "Overreaction and Diagnostic Expectations in Macroeconomics." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 30356, August 2022.
- September 2021
- Article
Diagnostic Bubbles
By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon and Andrei Shleifer
We introduce diagnostic expectations into a standard setting of price formation in which investors learn about the fundamental value of an asset and trade it. We study the interaction of diagnostic expectations with two well-known mechanisms: learning from prices and...
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Bordalo, Pedro, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon, and Andrei Shleifer. "Diagnostic Bubbles." Journal of Financial Economics 141, no. 3 (September 2021).
- 2021
- Working Paper
Salience
By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer
We review the fast-growing work on salience and economic behavior. Psychological research shows that salient stimuli attract human attention “bottom up” due to their high contrast with surroundings, their surprising nature relative to recalled experiences, or their...
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Keywords:
Salience;
Economic Behavior;
Bottom Up Attention;
Microeconomics;
Decision Making;
Behavior
Bordalo, Pedro, Nicola Gennaioli, and Andrei Shleifer. "Salience." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29274, September 2021.
- Article
Memory and Representativeness
By: Pedro Bordalo, Katherine Baldiga Coffman, Nicola Gennaioli, Frederik Schwerter and Andrei Shleifer
We explore the idea that judgment by representativeness reflects the workings of episodic memory, especially interference. In a new laboratory experiment on cued recall, participants are shown two groups of images with different distributions of colors. We find that i)...
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Bordalo, Pedro, Katherine Baldiga Coffman, Nicola Gennaioli, Frederik Schwerter, and Andrei Shleifer. "Memory and Representativeness." Psychological Review 128, no. 1 (January 2021): 71–85.
- 2020
- Working Paper
Consumer Protection in an Online World: An Analysis of Occupational Licensing
By: Chiara Farronato, Andrey Fradkin, Bradley Larsen and Erik Brynjolfsson
We study the effects of occupational licensing on consumer choices and market outcomes in a large online platform for residential home services. We exploit exogenous variation in the time at which licenses are displayed on the platform to identify the causal effects of...
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Keywords:
Occupational Licensing;
Consumer Protection;
Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms;
Consumer Behavior;
Decision Making;
Customer Satisfaction
Farronato, Chiara, Andrey Fradkin, Bradley Larsen, and Erik Brynjolfsson. "Consumer Protection in an Online World: An Analysis of Occupational Licensing." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 26601, January 2020.
- March 2019
- Article
Beliefs about Gender
By: Pedro Bordalo, Katherine Baldiga Coffman, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer
We conduct laboratory experiments that explore how gender stereotypes shape beliefs about ability of oneself and others in different categories of knowledge. The data reveal two patterns. First, men’s and women’s beliefs about both oneself and others exceed observed...
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Bordalo, Pedro, Katherine Baldiga Coffman, Nicola Gennaioli, and Andrei Shleifer. "Beliefs about Gender." American Economic Review 109, no. 3 (March 2019): 739–773.
- January 2019
- Article
Bubbles for Fama
By: Robin Greenwood, Andrei Shleifer and Yang You
We evaluate Eugene Fama's claim that stock prices do not exhibit price bubbles. Based on U.S. industry returns 1926–2014 and international sector returns 1985–2014, we present four findings: (1) Fama is correct in that a sharp price increase of an industry portfolio...
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Keywords:
Bubble;
Market Efficiency;
Predictability;
Price Bubble;
Stocks;
Price;
Forecasting and Prediction
Greenwood, Robin, Andrei Shleifer, and Yang You. "Bubbles for Fama." Journal of Financial Economics 131, no. 1 (January 2019): 20–43. (Internet Appendix Here.)
- 2018
- Working Paper
Diagnostic Bubbles
By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon and Andrei Shleifer
We introduce diagnostic expectations into a standard setting of price formation in which investors learn about the fundamental value of an asset and trade it. We study the interaction of diagnostic expectations with two well-known mechanisms: learning from prices and...
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Bordalo, Pedro, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon, and Andrei Shleifer. "Diagnostic Bubbles." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 25399, December 2018.
- 2018
- Book
A Crisis of Beliefs: Investor Psychology and Financial Fragility
By: Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer
The collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 caught markets and regulators by surprise. Although the government rushed to rescue other financial institutions from a similar fate after Lehman, it could not prevent the deepest recession in postwar history. A...
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Keywords:
Financial Fragility;
Economic Risk;
Investor Behavior;
Behavioral Economics;
Financial Crisis;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Financial Markets;
Investment;
Values and Beliefs;
United States
Gennaioli, Nicola, and Andrei Shleifer. A Crisis of Beliefs: Investor Psychology and Financial Fragility. Princeton University Press, 2018.
- August 2018
- Article
Extrapolation and Bubbles
By: Nicholas Barberis, Robin Greenwood, Lawrence Jin and Andrei Shleifer
We present an extrapolative model of bubbles. In the model, many investors form their demand for a risky asset by weighing two signals: an average of the asset’s past price changes and the asset’s degree of overvaluation. The two signals are in conflict, and investors...
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Barberis, Nicholas, Robin Greenwood, Lawrence Jin, and Andrei Shleifer. "Extrapolation and Bubbles." Journal of Financial Economics 129, no. 2 (August 2018): 203–227.
- Article
Finding the Platform in Your Product: Four Strategies That Can Reveal Hidden Value
By: Andrei Hagiu and Elizabeth J. Altman
Five of the 10 most valuable companies in the world today—Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Facebook, and Microsoft—derive much of their worth from their multisided platforms (MSPs), which facilitate interactions or transactions between parties. Many MSPs are more valuable than...
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Hagiu, Andrei, and Elizabeth J. Altman. "Finding the Platform in Your Product: Four Strategies That Can Reveal Hidden Value." Harvard Business Review 95, no. 4 (July–August 2017): 94–100.
- 2019
- Chapter
Network Effects
By: Andrei Hagiu and David B. Yoffie
Network effects are a key economic and strategic phenomenon in 'new economy' industries. They can, but do not necessarily, lead to market tipping, unless they outweigh customers' benefits from differentiation and are accompanied by high switching and multi-homing...
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Keywords:
Network Effects
Hagiu, Andrei, and David B. Yoffie. "Network Effects." In The Palgrave Encyclopedia of Strategic Management. Continuously updated edition, edited by Mie Augier and David J. Teece. Palgrave Macmillan, 2017. Electronic. (Pre-published, October 2013.)
- November 2016
- Article
Stereotypes
By: Pedro Bordalo, Katherine Baldiga Coffman, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer
We present a model of stereotypes based on Kahneman and Tversky's representativeness heuristic. A decision maker assesses a target group by overweighting its representative types, which we formally define to be the types that occur more frequently in that group than in...
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Keywords:
Prejudice and Bias
Bordalo, Pedro, Katherine Baldiga Coffman, Nicola Gennaioli, and Andrei Shleifer. "Stereotypes." Quarterly Journal of Economics 131, no. 4 (November 2016): 1753–1794.
- September 2015
- Article
Banks as Patient Fixed-Income Investors
By: Samuel G. Hanson, Andrei Shleifer, Jeremy C. Stein and Robert W. Vishny
We examine the business model of traditional commercial banks when they compete with shadow banks. While both types of intermediaries create safe "money-like" claims, they go about this in different ways. Traditional banks create money-like claims by holding illiquid...
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Hanson, Samuel G., Andrei Shleifer, Jeremy C. Stein, and Robert W. Vishny. "Banks as Patient Fixed-Income Investors." Journal of Financial Economics 117, no. 3 (September 2015): 449–469. (Internet Appendix Here.)
- January 2015
- Article
X-CAPM: An Extrapolative Capital Asset Pricing Model
By: Nicholas Barberis, Robin Greenwood, Lawrence Jin and Andrei Shleifer
Survey evidence suggests that many investors form beliefs about future stock market returns by extrapolating past returns. Such beliefs are hard to reconcile with existing models of the aggregate stock market. We study a consumption-based asset pricing model in which...
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Barberis, Nicholas, Robin Greenwood, Lawrence Jin, and Andrei Shleifer. "X-CAPM: An Extrapolative Capital Asset Pricing Model." Journal of Financial Economics 115, no. 1 (January 2015): 1–24.