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- 2024
- Working Paper
LASH Risk and Interest Rates
By: Laura Alfaro, Saleem Bahaj, Robert Czech, Jonathan Hazell and Ioana Neamtu
We introduce a framework to understand and quantify a form of liquidity risk that we dub Liquidity After Solvency Hedging or “LASH” risk. Financial institutions take LASH risk when they hedge against losses, using strategies that lead to liquidity needs when the value...
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Keywords:
Liquidity;
Monetary Policy;
Non-bank Intermediaries;
Hedging;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Investment Funds;
Financial Condition;
Interest Rates
Alfaro, Laura, Saleem Bahaj, Robert Czech, Jonathan Hazell, and Ioana Neamtu. "LASH Risk and Interest Rates." Bank of England Staff Working Papers, No. 1,073, May 2024.
- November 2023
- Article
A Quantity-Driven Theory of Term Premia and Exchange Rates
We develop a model in which specialized bond investors must absorb shocks to the supply and demand for long-term bonds in two currencies. Since long-term bonds and foreign exchange are both exposed to unexpected movements in short-term interest rates, a shift in the...
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Greenwood, Robin, Samuel G. Hanson, Jeremy C. Stein, and Adi Sunderam. "A Quantity-Driven Theory of Term Premia and Exchange Rates." Quarterly Journal of Economics 138, no. 4 (November 2023): 2327–2389.
- 2022
- Working Paper
The Fed and the Secular Decline in Interest Rates
In this paper I document a striking fact: a narrow window around Fed meetings fully captures the secular decline in U.S. Treasury yields since 1980. By contrast, yield movements outside this window are transitory and wash out over time. This is surprising because the...
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Keywords:
United States Treasury;
Monetary Policy;
Yield Curve;
Central Banking;
Interest Rates;
Valuation
Hillenbrand, Sebastian. "The Fed and the Secular Decline in Interest Rates." Working Paper, January 2022.
- August 2021
- Article
Don't Take Their Word for It: The Misclassification of Bond Mutual Funds
By: Huaizhi Chen, Lauren Cohen and Umit Gurun
We provide evidence that bond fund managers misclassify their holdings, and that these misclassifications have a real and significant impact on investor capital flows. In particular, many funds report more investment grade assets than are actually held in their...
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Keywords:
Mutual Funds;
Economics;
Finance;
Measurement and Metrics;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Financial Services Industry
Chen, Huaizhi, Lauren Cohen, and Umit Gurun. "Don't Take Their Word for It: The Misclassification of Bond Mutual Funds." Journal of Finance 76, no. 4 (August 2021): 1699–1730. (Winner of the Best Paper Prize at the University of Cambridge Consortium on Asset Management, 2020; Winner of the Financial Management Association Best Paper Prize in Quantitative Investments, 2020.)
- August 2021
- Article
Rate-Amplifying Demand and the Excess Sensitivity of Long-Term Rates
By: Samuel G. Hanson, David O. Lucca and Jonathan H. Wright
Long-term nominal interest rates are surprisingly sensitive to high-frequency (daily or monthly) movements in short-term rates. Since 2000, this high-frequency sensitivity has grown even stronger in U.S. data. By contrast, the association between low-frequency changes...
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Hanson, Samuel G., David O. Lucca, and Jonathan H. Wright. "Rate-Amplifying Demand and the Excess Sensitivity of Long-Term Rates." Quarterly Journal of Economics 136, no. 3 (August 2021): 1719–1781.
- 2020
- Working Paper
Institutional Corporate Bond Pricing
By: Ishita Sen, Lorenzo Bretscher, Lukas Schmid and Varun Sharma
We compile a rich dataset that links institutional investors' position level holdings with corporate bond characteristics and estimate demand elasticities with respect to critical sources of risk. Persistence in institutions' holdings provide us with an instrument to...
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Keywords:
Corporate Bonds;
Demand Systems;
Insurance Companies;
Mutual Funds;
Liquidity;
Bonds;
Insurance;
Investment Funds;
Financial Liquidity
Sen, Ishita, Lorenzo Bretscher, Lukas Schmid, and Varun Sharma. "Institutional Corporate Bond Pricing." Working Paper, December 2020. (Revised January 2022. Revise and Resubmit, Review of Financial Studies.)
- 2020
- Chapter
Reserve Accumulation, Sovereign Debt, and Exchange Rate Policy
By: Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk
In the past decade, foreign participation in local-currency bond markets in emerging countries increased dramatically. Additionally, emerging countries are increasingly deviating from inflation targeting regimes, managing their exchange rate and engaging in...
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Alfaro, Laura, and Fabio Kanczuk. "Reserve Accumulation, Sovereign Debt, and Exchange Rate Policy." In Asset Management at Central Banks and Monetary Authorities: New Practices in Managing International Foreign Exchange Reserves, edited by Jacob Bjorheim. Springer, 2020. (Book link.)
- 2020
- Working Paper
Corporate Leadership and Creditor Recovery Rates: Evidence from Executive Gender
By: Clarissa Hauptmann, Syrena Shirley and Anywhere Sikochi
We examine the relationship between the gender of executives and corporate creditor recovery rates. Using 2,288 defaulted debt instruments, we find that female executives are associated with higher creditor recovery rates. Our findings are robust to tests that correct...
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Keywords:
Executive Gender;
Default;
Recovery Rates;
Debt;
Corporate Bonds;
Conservatism;
Leadership;
Gender;
Borrowing and Debt;
Bonds;
Risk Management
Hauptmann, Clarissa, Syrena Shirley, and Anywhere Sikochi. "Corporate Leadership and Creditor Recovery Rates: Evidence from Executive Gender." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-087, February 2020.
- 2018
- Working Paper
Corporate Refinancing, Covenants, and the Agency Cost of Debt
By: Daniel Green
How valuable are restrictive debt covenants in reducing the agency costs of debt? I exploit the revealed preference decision to refinance fixed-coupon bonds, which weighs observable interest rate savings against the unobservable costs of a change in restrictive...
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Keywords:
Covenants;
Refinancing;
Corporate Bonds;
Agency Costs;
Debt Policy;
Borrowing and Debt;
Bonds;
Interest Rates
Green, Daniel. "Corporate Refinancing, Covenants, and the Agency Cost of Debt." Working Paper, 2018. (Revise and Resubmit, Journal of Finance.)
- 2018
- Working Paper
The Impact of Pensions and Insurance on Global Yield Curves
By: Robin Greenwood and Annette Vissing-Jorgensen
We document a strong effect of pension and insurance company (P&I) assets on the long end of the yield curve. Using data from 26 countries, the yield spread between 30-year and 10-year government bond yields is negatively related to the ratio of pension assets (in...
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Greenwood, Robin, and Annette Vissing-Jorgensen. "The Impact of Pensions and Insurance on Global Yield Curves." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 18-109, June 2018. (Revised December 2018.)
- June 2018
- Article
The Fed, the Bond Market, and Gradualism in Monetary Policy
By: Jeremy C. Stein and Adi Sunderam
We develop a model of monetary policy with two key features: (i) the central bank has some private information about its long-run target for the policy rate, and (ii) the central bank is averse to bond-market volatility. In this setting, discretionary monetary policy...
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Stein, Jeremy C., and Adi Sunderam. "The Fed, the Bond Market, and Gradualism in Monetary Policy." Journal of Finance 73, no. 3 (June 2018): 1015–1060.
- May 2018
- Article
U.S. Treasury Premium
By: Wenxin Du, Joanne Im and Jesse Schreger
We quantify the difference in the convenience yield of U.S. Treasuries and government bonds of other developed countries by measuring the deviation from covered interest parity between government bond yields. We call this wedge the “U.S. Treasury Premium.” We document...
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Du, Wenxin, Joanne Im, and Jesse Schreger. "U.S. Treasury Premium." Journal of International Economics 112 (May 2018): 167–181.
- February 2018
- Case
Infrastructure in Nigeria: Unlocking Pension Fund Investments
By: John Macomber and Pippa Tubman Armerding
The so-called “infrastructure finance gap” was a problem in Nigeria as in many parts of the world. Infrastructure projects like power plants and dams were very large capital investments that could generate long-term consistent cash flows, but their financing and...
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Keywords:
Pension Fund Investing;
Infrastucture;
Power/Energy;
Credit Enhancement;
Infrastructure;
Project Finance;
Investment Funds;
Emerging Markets;
Nigeria;
Africa
Macomber, John, and Pippa Tubman Armerding. "Infrastructure in Nigeria: Unlocking Pension Fund Investments." Harvard Business School Case 218-071, February 2018.
- August 2017 (Revised December 2017)
- Case
Accounting for Nuclear Power Provisions at RWE
By: Paul Healy and Jonas Heese
In early 2016, RWE, a utility that operates nuclear power plants in Germany, came under scrutiny from regulators and the media over the adequacy of its provisions for costs of decommissioning and dismantling (D&D) its nuclear power plants. Accounting standards required...
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Keywords:
Liabilities;
Provisions For Long-term Obligations;
Discounting;
Accounting;
Energy Generation;
Energy Industry;
Germany
Healy, Paul, and Jonas Heese. "Accounting for Nuclear Power Provisions at RWE." Harvard Business School Case 118-013, August 2017. (Revised December 2017.)
- 2017
- Article
Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds
By: John Y. Campbell, Adi Sunderam and Luis M. Viceira
The covariance between U.S. Treasury bond returns and stock returns has moved considerably over time. While it was slightly positive on average in the period 1953–2009, it was unusually high in the early 1980s and negative in the 2000s, particularly in the downturns of...
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Campbell, John Y., Adi Sunderam, and Luis M. Viceira. "Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds." Critical Finance Review 6, no. 2 (2017): 263–301.
- April 2017 (Revised February 2020)
- Case
Restructuring Ukraine
By: Kristin Mugford, Seema Amble and Tian Feng
In June 2015, Ukraine found itself struggling with a volatile and devalued currency, dramatically diminished foreign reserves, and a projected financing shortfall of $40 billion. Ukraine’s new government sought to return the nation to stability following political...
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Keywords:
Exchange Rates;
Politics;
Macroeconomics;
Financial Crisis;
Insolvency and Bankruptcy;
Restructuring;
Economy;
Currency Exchange Rate;
Banks and Banking;
Economic Slowdown and Stagnation;
Bonds;
Sovereign Finance;
Capital Markets;
Credit;
Debt Securities;
Financial Liquidity;
Financial Markets;
Government and Politics;
Ukraine
Mugford, Kristin, Seema Amble, and Tian Feng. "Restructuring Ukraine." Harvard Business School Case 217-049, April 2017. (Revised February 2020.)
- 2018
- Working Paper
Global Portfolio Diversification for Long-Horizon Investors
By: Luis M. Viceira and Zixuan (Kevin) Wang
This paper conducts a theoretical and empirical investigation of global portfolio diversification for long-horizon investors in the presence of permanent cash flow shocks and transitory discount rate shocks to asset prices and returns. An increase in the cross-country...
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Keywords:
Investment Portfolio;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Diversification;
Capital Markets;
Global Range
Viceira, Luis M., and Zixuan (Kevin) Wang. "Global Portfolio Diversification for Long-Horizon Investors." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 17-085, March 2017. (Revised July 2018.)
- 2016
- Chapter
Forward Guidance in the Yield Curve: Short Rates versus Bond Supply
By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel Gregory Hanson and Dimitri Vayanos
We present a model of the yield curve in which the central bank can provide market participants with forward guidance on both future short rates and on future Quantitative Easing (QE) operations, which affect bond supply. Forward guidance on short rates works through...
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Greenwood, Robin, Samuel Gregory Hanson, and Dimitri Vayanos. "Forward Guidance in the Yield Curve: Short Rates versus Bond Supply." In Monetary Policy through Asset Markets: Lessons from Unconventional Measures and Implications for an Integrated World, edited by Elias Albagli, Diego Saravia, and Michael Woodford, 11–62. Santiago: Banco Central de Chile, 2016. (Working Paper version: NBER Working Paper No. 21750 Here.)
- November 2016 (Revised March 2018)
- Case
Deutsche Bank: Structured Retail Products
By: Boris Vallée and Jérôme Lenhardt
Describes how Deutsche Bank, a leading European bank, is deciding whether or not to launch a new structured retail product in Germany: an autocallable note. Will this product find a market and how does it fit into the bank’s product portfolio? The case investigates how...
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Keywords:
Structured Products;
Structured Retail Products;
Germany;
Auto Callable Note;
Financial Product;
Financial Product Development;
Financial Product Marketing;
Financial Product Launch;
Financial Product Positioning;
Finance;
Assets;
Asset Pricing;
Asset Management;
Capital Markets;
Financial Institutions;
Banks and Banking;
Commercial Banking;
Financial Instruments;
Annuities;
Bonds;
Stocks;
Financial Management;
Financial Markets;
Financial Strategy;
Interest Rates;
Investment
Vallée, Boris, and Jérôme Lenhardt. "Deutsche Bank: Structured Retail Products." Harvard Business School Case 217-037, November 2016. (Revised March 2018.)
- June 2016
- Article
Local Currency Sovereign Risk
By: Wenxin Du and Jesse Schreger
We introduce a new measure of emerging market sovereign credit risk: the local currency credit spread, defined as the spread of local currency bonds over the synthetic local currency risk-free rate constructed using cross-currency swaps. We find that local currency...
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Du, Wenxin, and Jesse Schreger. "Local Currency Sovereign Risk." Journal of Finance 71, no. 3 (June 2016): 1027–1070.