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- October 2024
- Article
Canary Categories
By: Eric Anderson, Chaoqun Chen, Ayelet Israeli and Duncan Simester
Past customer spending in a category is generally a positive signal of future customer spending. We show that there exist “canary categories” for which the reverse is true. Purchases in these categories are a signal that customers are less likely to return to that... View Details
- July 2024
- Article
Buying the Verdict
By: Lauren Cohen and Umit Gurun
We document evidence that firms systematically increase specialized, locally targeted advertising following the firm being taken to trial in that given location, precisely following initiation of the suit. In particular, we use legal actions brought against publicly... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
What Is Newsworthy? Theory and Evidence
By: Luis Armona, Matthew Gentzkow, Emir Kamenica and Jesse M. Shapiro
We study newsworthiness in theory and practice. We focus on situations in which a news outlet observes the realization of a state of the world and must decide whether to report the realization to a consumer who pays an opportunity cost to consume the report. The... View Details
- April 2024
- Article
Model-based Financial Regulations Impair the Transition to Net-zero Carbon Emissions
By: Matteo Gasparini, Matthew C. Ives, Ben Carr, Sophie Fry and Eric Beinhocker
Investments via the financial system are essential for fostering the green transition. However, the role of existing financial regulations in influencing investment decisions is understudied. Here we analyse data from the European Banking Authority to show that... View Details
- 2023
- Working Paper
An Experimental Design for Anytime-Valid Causal Inference on Multi-Armed Bandits
By: Biyonka Liang and Iavor I. Bojinov
Typically, multi-armed bandit (MAB) experiments are analyzed at the end of the study and thus require the analyst to specify a fixed sample size in advance. However, in many online learning applications, it is advantageous to continuously produce inference on the... View Details
- 2024
- Case
Christiana Figueres and the Paris Climate Negotiations (A)
By: James K. Sebenius, Laurence A. Green, Hannah Riley-Bowles, Lara SanPietro and Mina Subramanian
This three-part, stop action case study, structured for classroom discussion, centers on Harvard’s Program on Negotiation 2022 Great Negotiator, Christiana Figueres, and her efforts as Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change... View Details
- 2024
- Case
Christiana Figueres and the Paris Climate Negotiations (B)
By: James K. Sebenius, Laurence A. Green, Hannah Riley-Bowles, Lara SanPietro and Mina Subramanian
This three-part, stop action case study, structured for classroom discussion, centers on Harvard’s Program on Negotiation 2022 Great Negotiator, Christiana Figueres, and her efforts as Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change... View Details
- 2024
- Case
Christiana Figueres and the Paris Climate Negotiations: Figueres the Negotiator (C)
By: James K. Sebenius, Laurence A. Green, Hannah Riley-Bowles, Lara SanPietro and Mina Subramanian
This three-part, stop action case study, structured for classroom discussion, centers on Harvard’s Program on Negotiation 2022 Great Negotiator, Christiana Figueres, and her efforts as Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change... View Details
- 2023
- Article
Balancing Risk and Reward: An Automated Phased Release Strategy
By: Yufan Li, Jialiang Mao and Iavor Bojinov
Phased releases are a common strategy in the technology industry for gradually releasing new products or updates through a sequence of A/B tests in which the number of treated units gradually grows until full deployment or deprecation. Performing phased releases in a... View Details
- 2023
- Working Paper
The Effects of Inconsistent Work Schedules on Employee Lateness and Absenteeism
By: Caleb Kwon and Ananth Raman
Problem Definition: Employee lateness and absenteeism pose challenges for businesses, particularly in the retail industry, where punctuality is vital for optimal store operations and customer service. This paper relates employee lateness and absenteeism with... View Details
- 2023
- Article
Probabilistically Robust Recourse: Navigating the Trade-offs between Costs and Robustness in Algorithmic Recourse
By: Martin Pawelczyk, Teresa Datta, Johannes van-den-Heuvel, Gjergji Kasneci and Himabindu Lakkaraju
As machine learning models are increasingly being employed to make consequential decisions in real-world settings, it becomes critical to ensure that individuals who are adversely impacted (e.g., loan denied) by the predictions of these models are provided with a means... View Details
- 2023
- Case
Christiana Figueres and the Collaborative Approach to Negotiating Climate Action
By: James K. Sebenius, Laurence A. Green, Hannah Riley-Bowles, Lara SanPietro and Mina Subramanian
This case study centers on Harvard’s Program on Negotiation 2022 Great Negotiator, Christiana Figueres, and her efforts as Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to build momentum for, and ultimately pass, the 2015... View Details
- April 2023
- Article
The Real Exchange Rate, Innovation and Productivity
By: Laura Alfaro, Alejandro Cuñat, Harald Fadinger and Yanping Liu
We evaluate manufacturing firms' responses to changes in the real exchange rate (RER) using detailed firm-level data for a large set of countries for the period 2001-2010. We uncover the following stylized facts about regional variation of manufacturing firms'... View Details
- December 2022
- Article
I Don't 'Recall': The Decision to Delay Innovation Launch to Avoid Costly Product Failure
By: Byungyeon Kim, Oded Koenigsberg and Elie Ofek
Innovations embody novel features or cutting-edge components aimed at delivering desired customer benefits.
Oftentimes, however, we observe the need to recall new products shortly after their introduction. Indeed, a firm
may rush an innovation to market in an attempt... View Details
- December 2022
- Article
When and How Should Firms Differentiate? Quality and Advertising Decisions in a Duopoly
By: Dominique Olié Lauga, Elie Ofek and Zsolt Katona
A prominent hallmark of competitive interaction is the desire to differentiate from rivals. In this article, the authors examine under what conditions firms will differentiate through product quality versus advertising intensity. Firms select quality in a first stage,... View Details
- November 2022
- Article
Opportunity Neglect: An Aversion to Low-probability Gains
By: Emily Prinsloo, Kate Barasz, Leslie K. John and Michael I. Norton
Seven preregistered studies (N = 2,890) conducted in the field, lab, and online document opportunity neglect: a tendency to reject opportunities with low probability of success, even when they come with little or no objective cost (e.g., time, money,... View Details
- 2022
- Report
The First Four Healthy Building Strategies Every Building Should Pursue to Reduce Risk from COVID-19
By: Joseph G. Allen, Emily Jones, Marissa V. Rainbolt, Linsey C. Marr, David Michaels, Leslie R. Cadet, Shelly L. Miller, Meira Levinson, Lidia Morawska, Richard L. Corsi, Nira R. Pollock, Yuguo Li, Alasdair P.S. Munro, Kelly Grier, Qingyan Chen, John D. Macomber and Xiaodong Cao
Understanding of the most probable transmission routes and identifying the risk environments for disease spread should always be among the first critical steps in the response to future disease threats. This is one of the most vital public health lessons of the... View Details
- 2022
- Working Paper
Measuring the Tolerance of the State: Theory and Application to Protest
By: Veli Andirin, Yusuf Neggers, Mehdi Shadmehr and Jesse M. Shapiro
We develop a measure of a regime's tolerance for an action by its citizens. We ground our measure in an economic model and apply it to the setting of political protest. In the model, a regime anticipating a protest can take a costly action to repress it. We define the... View Details
- 2022
- Working Paper
Causal Inference During A Pandemic: Evidence on the Effectiveness of Nebulized Ibuprofen as an Unproven Treatment for COVID-19 in Argentina
By: Sebastian Calonico, Rafael Di Tella and Juan Cruz Lopez Del Valle
Many medical decisions during the pandemic were made without the support of causal evidence obtained in clinical trials. We study the case of nebulized ibuprofen (NaIHS), a drug that was extensively used on COVID-19 patients in Argentina amidst wild claims about its... View Details
- April 2022
- Article
Predictable Financial Crises
Using historical data on post-war financial crises around the world, we show that crises are substantially predictable. The combination of rapid credit and asset price growth over the prior three years, whether in the nonfinancial business or the household sector, is... View Details