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Show Results For
- All HBS Web
(1,590)
- People (28)
- News (508)
- Research (539)
- Events (1)
- Multimedia (22)
- Faculty Publications (237)
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- 2022
- Working Paper
The Gender Minority Gaps in Confidence and Self-Evaluations
By: Billur Aksoy, Christine L. Exley and Judd B. Kessler
An increasing share of the population identifies as something other than male or female. Yet, we know very little about the economic preferences and beliefs of gender minorities. In this paper, we document a “gender minority gap” in confidence and in self-evaluations.... View Details
Aksoy, Billur, Christine L. Exley, and Judd B. Kessler. "The Gender Minority Gaps in Confidence and Self-Evaluations." Working Paper, October 2022.
- August 2006
- Article
Confidence Intervals for Probabilities of Default
By: Samuel G. Hanson and Til Schuermann
In this paper we conduct a systematic comparison of confidence intervals around estimated probabilities of default (PD) using several analytical approaches as well as parametric and nonparametric bootstrap methods. We do so for two different PD estimation... View Details
Hanson, Samuel G., and Til Schuermann. "Confidence Intervals for Probabilities of Default." Journal of Banking & Finance 30, no. 8 (August 2006).
- March 1983 (Revised March 1986)
- Case
Mexico: Crisis of Confidence
Vietor, Richard H.K. "Mexico: Crisis of Confidence." Harvard Business School Case 383-148, March 1983. (Revised March 1986.)
- Article
Race/Ethnicity and Patient Confidence to Self-manage Cardiovascular Disease
BACKGROUND: Minority populations bear a disproportionate burden of chronic disease, due to higher disease prevalence and greater morbidity and mortality. Recent research has shown that several factors, including confidence to self-manage care, are associated... View Details
Blustein, Jan, Melissa Valentine, Holly Mead, and Marsha Regenstein. "Race/Ethnicity and Patient Confidence to Self-manage Cardiovascular Disease." Medical Care 46, no. 9 (September 2008).
- 2022
- Working Paper
The Gender Gap in Confidence: Expected But Not Accounted For
By: Christine L. Exley and Kirby Nielsen
We investigate how the gender gap in confidence affects the views that evaluators (e.g., employers) hold about men and women. If evaluators fail to account for the confidence gap, it may cause overly pessimistic views about women. Alternatively, if evaluators expect... View Details
Keywords: Confidence; Experiments; Gender; Perception; Values and Beliefs; Performance Evaluation; Analysis
Exley, Christine L., and Kirby Nielsen. "The Gender Gap in Confidence: Expected But Not Accounted For." Working Paper, October 2022.
- 14 Apr 2003
- Research & Ideas
Andy Grove on the Confident Leader
self-confidence to make an irrational or intuitive decision that goes against the logic of the organization? AG: I've made the point about pretending confidence and building your own confidence in the face... View Details
- March 2021
- Article
Bayesian Signatures of Confidence and Central Tendency in Perceptual Judgment
By: Yang Xiang, Thomas Graeber, Benjamin Enke and Samuel Gershman
This paper theoretically and empirically investigates the role of Bayesian noisy cognition in perceptual judgment, focusing on the central tendency effect: the well-known empirical regularity that perceptual judgments are biased towards the center of the... View Details
Xiang, Yang, Thomas Graeber, Benjamin Enke, and Samuel Gershman. "Bayesian Signatures of Confidence and Central Tendency in Perceptual Judgment." Attention, Perception, & Psychophysics (March 2021): 1–11.
- December 15, 2009
- Article
How to Restore Confidence in Loan Securitisation
By: Robert C. Pozen
Keywords: Financing and Loans
Pozen, Robert C. "How to Restore Confidence in Loan Securitisation." FT.com (December 15, 2009).
- Mar 2017
- Keynote Speech
Creativity and the Value of Confident Humility
- 2023
- Working Paper
Design-Based Confidence Sequences: A General Approach to Risk Mitigation in Online Experimentation
By: Dae Woong Ham, Michael Lindon, Martin Tingley and Iavor Bojinov
Randomized experiments have become the standard method for companies to evaluate the performance of new products or services. In addition to augmenting managers’ decision-making, experimentation mitigates risk by limiting the proportion of customers exposed to... View Details
Keywords: Performance Evaluation; Research and Development; Analytics and Data Science; Consumer Behavior
Ham, Dae Woong, Michael Lindon, Martin Tingley, and Iavor Bojinov. "Design-Based Confidence Sequences: A General Approach to Risk Mitigation in Online Experimentation." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-070, May 2023.
- 05 Dec 2023
- Research & Ideas
Lessons in Decision-Making: Confident People Aren't Always Correct (Except When They Are)
Sometimes, the loudest, most confident voice in the room might indeed be the best decision-maker. Other times, the person who understands that they don’t know the answer—and therefore holds back in a discussion—may be wiser. Whether... View Details
Keywords: by Kara Baskin
- 07 Oct 2002
- Research & Ideas
What Leaders Need to Do To Restore Investor Confidence
At the beginning of the year, corporate skullduggery seemed limited to one or two egregious examples. A couple of bad apples won't spoil the whole bunch, we said to ourselves. But in the past several months, rottenness may have achieved a critical mass. After such a... View Details
Keywords: by Harvard Management Update
- 15 Jul 2019
- Book
Many Executives Are Afraid of Finance. Here's How They Can Gain Confidence
disproportionate stock price hit to an earnings miss reflects that informational problem. The promise of private equity involves solving that gap between owners and managers. Buybacks must be interpreted in that context as either revealing View Details
Keywords: by Dina Gerdeman
- 2016
- Chapter
Understanding Confidence: Its Roots and Role in Performance
By: Rosabeth M. Kanter and Daniel Fox
Kanter, Rosabeth M., and Daniel Fox. "Understanding Confidence: Its Roots and Role in Performance." Chap. 4 in Critical Mindfulness: Exploring Langerian Models, edited by Sayyed Mohsen Fatemi, 55–67. Springer, 2016.
- 2022
- Article
Is Maximising Creativity Good? The Importance of Elaboration and Internal Confidence in Producing Creative Ideas
By: Goran Calic, Elaine Mosakowski, Nick Bontis and Sébastien Hélie
While knowledge management researchers acknowledge that individuals transition from generation to implementation of ideas, these transitions are not fully understood. The current article focuses on idea elaboration – defined as the transition of an idea from an... View Details
Keywords: Knowledge Management; Organizational Culture; Creativity; Cognition and Thinking; Innovation and Invention; Learning
Calic, Goran, Elaine Mosakowski, Nick Bontis, and Sébastien Hélie. "Is Maximising Creativity Good? The Importance of Elaboration and Internal Confidence in Producing Creative Ideas." Knowledge Management Research and Practice 20, no. 5 (2022): 776–791.
- September 2019
- Article
The Self-Presentational Consequences of Upholding One's Stance in Spite of the Evidence
By: Leslie John, Martha Jeong, Francesca Gino and Laura Huang
Five studies explore the self-presentational consequences of refusing to “back down” – that is, upholding a stance despite evidence of its inaccuracy. Using data from an entrepreneurial pitch competition, Study 1 shows that entrepreneurs tend not to back down even... View Details
Keywords: Self-presentation; Belief Perseverance; Judgment; Confidence; Persuasion; Personal Characteristics; Behavior; Perception; Decision Making; Outcome or Result
John, Leslie, Martha Jeong, Francesca Gino, and Laura Huang. "The Self-Presentational Consequences of Upholding One's Stance in Spite of the Evidence." Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 154 (September 2019): 1–14.
- Article
Power, Competitiveness, and Advice Taking: Why the Powerful Don't Listen
By: L. P. Tost, F. Gino and R. Larrick
Four experiments test the prediction that feelings of power lead individuals to discount advice received from both experts and novices. Experiment 1 documents a negative relationship between subjective feelings of power and use of advice. Experiments 2 and 3 further... View Details
Tost, L. P., F. Gino, and R. Larrick. "Power, Competitiveness, and Advice Taking: Why the Powerful Don't Listen." Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 117, no. 1 (January 2012): 53–65.
- Article
The Feeling of Not Knowing It All
By: Haiyang Yang, Ziv Carmon, Dan Ariely and Michael I. Norton
How do consumers assess their mastery of knowledge they have learned? We explore this question by investigating a common knowledge consumption situation: encountering opportunities for further learning. We argue and show that such opportunities can trigger a... View Details
Keywords: Knowledge Consumption; Consumption Of Learning; Judgment Of Knowledge; Feeling Ofknowing; Confidence In Knowledge; WYSIATI; FONKIA; Knowledge Acquisition; Learning; Perception
Yang, Haiyang, Ziv Carmon, Dan Ariely, and Michael I. Norton. "The Feeling of Not Knowing It All." Journal of Consumer Psychology 29, no. 3 (July 2019): 455–462.
- January 2017
- Article
Should You Sleep on It? The Effects of Overnight Sleep on Subjective Preference-based Choice
By: Uma R. Karmarkar, Baba Shiv and Rebecca M.C. Spencer
Conventional wisdom and studies of unconscious processing suggest that sleeping on a choice may improve decision-making. Though sleep has been shown to benefit several cognitive tasks, including problem solving, its impact on everyday choices remains unclear. Here we... View Details
Keywords: Decision Making; Choice; Sleep; Choice Sets; Confidence; Consumer Psychology; Consumer Preferences; Decision Choices and Conditions; Consumer Behavior
Karmarkar, Uma R., Baba Shiv, and Rebecca M.C. Spencer. "Should You Sleep on It? The Effects of Overnight Sleep on Subjective Preference-based Choice." Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 30, no. 1 (January 2017): 70–79.