by Richard Calvo, Vincent Pons, and Jesse M. Shapiro - Publications - Faculty & Research

28 Oct 2024
Op-Ed

Latino Voters Have Grown More Politically Divided. That’s Not Surprising.

a doctoral student in economics at University of California, Berkeley; Vincent Pons, is the Byron Wein Professor of Business Administration at Harvard Business School; and... View Details

Keywords: by Richard Calvo, Vincent Pons, and Jesse M. Shapiro

07 Oct 2024
Research & Ideas

Election 2024: Why Demographics Won't Predict the Next President

would be better off flipping a coin to determine a probable winner. “We find that even guessing at a 50-50 level is just as good, if not actually better, than using some demographic forecasts,” says Vincent View Details

Keywords: by Jay Fitzgerald

2024
Working Paper

Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of U.S. Elections

By: Richard Calvo, Vincent Pons and Jesse M. Shapiro

Many observers have forecast large partisan shifts in the US electorate based on demographic trends. Such forecasts are appealing because demographic trends are often predictable even over long horizons. We backtest demographic forecasts using data on US elections... View Details

Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Voting; Political Elections; Trends; Forecasting and Prediction; Demographics

Citation

Find at Harvard

Register to Read

03 Nov 2009
First Look

First Look: Nov. 3

Field Experiment in Zambia Authors:Nava Ashraf, James Berry, and Jesse M. Shapiro Publication:American Economic Review (forthcoming) Abstract The... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

Publications