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by Joshua Krieger, Danielle Li, and Dimitris PapanikolaouRemove by Joshua Krieger, Danielle Li, and Dimitris Papanikolaou →

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  • 2023
  • Working Paper

Evaluation and Learning in R&D Investment

By: Alexander P. Frankel, Joshua L. Krieger, Danielle Li and Dimitris Papanikolaou
We examine the role of spillover learning in shaping the value of exploratory versus incremental R&D. Using data from drug development, we show that novel drug candidates generate more knowledge spillovers than incremental ones. Despite being less likely to reach... View Details
Keywords: Research and Development; Forecasting and Prediction; Valuation; Pharmaceutical Industry
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  • 2022
  • Article

Missing Novelty in Drug Development

By: Joshua Krieger, Danielle Li and Dimitris Papanikolaou
We provide evidence that risk aversion leads pharmaceutical firms to underinvest in radical innovation. We introduce a new measure of drug novelty based on chemical similarity and show that firms face a risk-reward trade-off: novel drug candidates are less likely to... View Details
Keywords: Drug Development; Risk Aversion; Research and Development; Innovation and Invention; Investment; Pharmaceutical Industry
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