Publications

In his research, Professor Siriwardane seeks to develop a quantitative understanding of how the financial sector affects asset prices and macroeconomic stability, particularly relevant in the wake of the financial crisis of the last decade. View Details

Research Summary

Rare Consumption Disasters

Another defining feature of financial crises is consumption disasters, or large drops in aggregate consumption. Rather than taking the standard approach of seeking implications of such rare disasters for asset pricing in consumption data, Professor Siriwardane asks... View Details

Research Summary

The Connection Between Volatility and Leverage

Professor Siriwardane has co-developed a new econometric model that captures the link between equity volatility and financial leverage, driven by the desire to incorporate the record levels of both leverage and volatility that characterized the 2008 financial crisis... View Details

Research Summary

Concentrated Capital Losses and the Pricing of Corporate Credit Risk

In studying the U.S. credit default swap (CDS) market, Professor Siriwardane has discovered that the selling of CDS protection is extremely concentrated, with five sellers accounting for nearly half the market. Further, in contrast to what neoclassical theory... View Details

28 Jul 2015
First Look

First Look: July 28, 2015

management literature. Download working paper: https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=47633 Concentrated Capital Losses and the Pricing of Corporate Credit Risk By: Siriwardane, Emil N.... View Details

Keywords: Carmen Nobel

16 Aug 2016
First Look

August 16, 2016

https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/Pages/item.aspx?num=51460 Concentrated Capital Losses and the Pricing of Corporate Credit Risk By: Siriwardane, Emil N. Abstract—Using proprietary data on all credit default swap... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

12 Jun 2018
First Look

New Research and Ideas, June 12, 2018

emergence of political economy and the project of creating market societies. By reconstructing ideas in their historical contexts, I address motivations and contingencies at the very foundations of modernity. Publisher's link:... View Details

Keywords: Dina Gerdeman

23 Jan 2018
First Look

First Look at New Research and Ideas, January 23, 2018

Journal of Econometrics Scenario Generation for Long Run Interest Rate Risk Assessment By: Engle, Robert F., Guillaume Roussellet, and Emil N. Siriwardane Abstract—We propose a... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

2024
Working Paper

The Rise of Alternatives

By: Juliane Begenau, Pauline Liang and Emil Siriwardane

Since the 2000s, U.S. public pensions have shifted their risky investments towards alternative assets like private equity and hedge funds, some more aggressively than others. We explore several explanations for these cross-sectional trends, focusing on those implied by... View Details

Keywords: Investment Funds; Investment Return; Risk and Uncertainty

October 2020 (Revised December 2020)
Case

Investing at Pivotal Ventures

By: Emil N. Siriwardane, Emily R. McComb and Eren Kuzucu

Launched in 2015 by Melinda Gates, co-chair of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Pivotal Ventures is an investment and incubation company. The company aims to support and promote transformational ideas, people and organizations, and advance social progress for women... View Details

Keywords: Investment; Management; Mission and Purpose; Venture Capital

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April 2018 (Revised March 2019)
Case

Tesla-SolarCity

By: E. Scott Mayfield and Emil N. Siriwardane

On June 21, 2016, Tesla Motors, Inc. announced its offer to acquire SolarCity, bringing CEO Elon Musk one step closer to completing his goal of moving the world from a hydrocarbon-based economy to a solar-electric one. Markets and analysts were mixed in their reaction... View Details

Keywords: Tesla; SolarCity; Solar Power; Mergers and Acquisitions; Renewable Energy; Goals and Objectives; Finance

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February 2023
Article

OTC Intermediaries

By: Andrea L. Eisfeldt, Bernard Herskovic, Sriram Rajan and Emil Siriwardane

We study the effect of dealer exit on prices and quantities in a model of an over-the-counter (OTC) market featuring a core-periphery network with bilateral trading costs. The model is calibrated using regulatory data on the entire U.S. credit default swap (CDS) market... View Details

Keywords: OTC Markets; Intermediaries; Dealers; Credit Default Swaps; Risk Sharing; Financial Markets; Networks; Price; Risk and Uncertainty

2024
Working Paper

Fire Sales of Safe Assets

By: Gabor Pinter, Emil Siriwardane and Danny Walker

We use trade-level data to study price pressure effects in the UK gilt market from September to October 2022. During this period, forced sales by liability-driven investment funds (LDIs) led to price discounts on the order of 10%, accounting for roughly half the total... View Details

Keywords: Investment Funds; Capital Markets; United Kingdom

October 2019
Article

Limited Investment Capital and Credit Spreads

Using proprietary credit default swap (CDS) data, I investigate how capital shocks at protection sellers impact pricing in the CDS market. Seller capital shocks—measured as CDS portfolio margin payments—account for 12% of the time-series variation in weekly spread... View Details

Keywords: Credit Risk; Derivatives; Credit Derivatives and Swaps; Capital Markets; Credit; Financial Institutions

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August 2020
Article

Financial Market Risk Perceptions and the Macroeconomy

By: Carolin E. Pflueger, Emil Siriwardane and Adi Sunderam

We propose a novel measure of risk perceptions: the price of volatile stocks (PVS), defined as the book-to-market ratio of low-volatility stocks minus the book-to-market ratio of high-volatility stocks. PVS is high when perceived risk directly measured from surveys and... View Details

Keywords: Risk-centric Business Cycles; Cross-section Of Equities; Real Risk-free Rate; Real Investment; Financial Markets; Risk and Uncertainty; Perception; Investment

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July 2020
Case

Mortgage Backed Securities and the Covid-19 Pandemic

By: Emil N. Siriwardane, Luis M. Viceira and Dean Xu

In April 2020, global financial markets were still reeling as the COVID-19 pandemic spread rapidly across the world. Global equity markets had initially fallen by 30% in response to the pandemic, and high-yield credit markets had dropped by nearly 20%. In contrast,... View Details

Keywords: COVID-19; Mortgage-backed Securities; Health Pandemics; Financial Markets; Assets; Resource Allocation; Financial Instruments; Decision Making

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2018
Working Paper

OTC Intermediaries

By: Andrea L. Eisfeldt, Bernard Herskovic, Sriram Rajan and Emil Siriwardane

Over-the-counter (OTC) markets for financial assets are dominated by a relatively small number of core intermediaries and a large number of peripheral customers. In this paper, we develop a model of trade in a core-periphery network and estimate its key structural... View Details

Keywords: OTC Markets; Intermediaries; Dealers; Credit Default Swaps; Risk Sharing; Networks; Price; Risk and Uncertainty

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