Publications
Publications
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- All HBS Web
(49)
- Faculty Publications (20)
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- 2024
- Working Paper
Fire Sales of Safe Assets
By: Gabor Pinter, Emil Siriwardane and Danny Walker
We use trade-level data to study price pressure effects in the UK gilt market from September to October 2022. During this period, forced sales by liability-driven investment funds (LDIs) led to price discounts on the order of 10%, accounting for roughly half the total... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
The Rise of Alternatives
By: Juliane Begenau, Pauline Liang and Emil Siriwardane
Since the 2000s, U.S. public pensions have shifted their risky investments towards alternative assets like private equity and hedge funds, some more aggressively than others. We explore several explanations for these cross-sectional trends, focusing on those implied by... View Details
- April 2024
- Article
Fee Variation in Private Equity
By: Juliane Begenau and Emil N. Siriwardane
We study how investment fees vary within private-capital funds. Net-of-fee return clustering suggests that most funds have two tiers of fees, and we decompose differences across tiers into both management and performance-based fees. Managers of venture capital funds... View Details
- March 2023
- Supplement
Pershing Square's Pandemic Trade Teaching Note Courseware
By: Luis M. Viceira and Emil N. Siriwardane
- February 2023
- Article
OTC Intermediaries
By: Andrea L. Eisfeldt, Bernard Herskovic, Sriram Rajan and Emil Siriwardane
We study the effect of dealer exit on prices and quantities in a model of an over-the-counter (OTC) market featuring a core-periphery network with bilateral trading costs. The model is calibrated using regulatory data on the entire U.S. credit default swap (CDS) market... View Details
- August 2022 (Revised August 2022)
- Teaching Note
Pershing Square’s Pandemic Trade
By: Emil N. Siriwardane and Luis M. Viceira
Teaching Note for HBS Case Nos. 222-007, 222-008, 222-009, and 222-010. View Details
- 2020
- Working Paper
An Empirical Guide to Investor-Level Private Equity Data from Preqin
By: Juliane Begenau, Claudia Robles-Garcia, Emil Siriwardane and Lulu Wang
This note provides guidance on the use of investor-level private equity data from Preqin for empirical research. Preqin primarily sources its cash flow data through Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests with U.S. public pensions. Our focus is on the components of... View Details
- October 2020 (Revised December 2020)
- Case
Investing at Pivotal Ventures
By: Emil N. Siriwardane, Emily R. McComb and Eren Kuzucu
Launched in 2015 by Melinda Gates, co-chair of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Pivotal Ventures is an investment and incubation company. The company aims to support and promote transformational ideas, people and organizations, and advance social progress for women... View Details
- August 2020
- Article
Financial Market Risk Perceptions and the Macroeconomy
By: Carolin E. Pflueger, Emil Siriwardane and Adi Sunderam
We propose a novel measure of risk perceptions: the price of volatile stocks (PVS), defined as the book-to-market ratio of low-volatility stocks minus the book-to-market ratio of high-volatility stocks. PVS is high when perceived risk directly measured from surveys and... View Details
- July 2020
- Case
Mortgage Backed Securities and the Covid-19 Pandemic
By: Emil N. Siriwardane, Luis M. Viceira and Dean Xu
In April 2020, global financial markets were still reeling as the COVID-19 pandemic spread rapidly across the world. Global equity markets had initially fallen by 30% in response to the pandemic, and high-yield credit markets had dropped by nearly 20%. In contrast,... View Details
- October 2019
- Article
Limited Investment Capital and Credit Spreads
Using proprietary credit default swap (CDS) data, I investigate how capital shocks at protection sellers impact pricing in the CDS market. Seller capital shocks—measured as CDS portfolio margin payments—account for 12% of the time-series variation in weekly spread... View Details
- December 2018 (Revised March 2019)
- Teaching Note
Tesla-SolarCity
By: Emil N. Siriwardane and E. Scott Mayfield
- 2018
- Working Paper
OTC Intermediaries
By: Andrea L. Eisfeldt, Bernard Herskovic, Sriram Rajan and Emil Siriwardane
Over-the-counter (OTC) markets for financial assets are dominated by a relatively small number of core intermediaries and a large number of peripheral customers. In this paper, we develop a model of trade in a core-periphery network and estimate its key structural... View Details
- April 2018 (Revised March 2019)
- Case
Tesla-SolarCity
By: E. Scott Mayfield and Emil N. Siriwardane
On June 21, 2016, Tesla Motors, Inc. announced its offer to acquire SolarCity, bringing CEO Elon Musk one step closer to completing his goal of moving the world from a hydrocarbon-based economy to a solar-electric one. Markets and analysts were mixed in their reaction... View Details
- February 2018
- Article
Structural GARCH: The Volatility-Leverage Connection
By: Robert F. Engle and Emil N. Siriwardane
During the financial crisis, financial firm leverage and volatility both rose dramatically. Consequently, institutions are being asked to reduce leverage in order to reduce risk, though the effectiveness depends upon the role of capital structure in volatility. To... View Details
Keywords: Leverage; Credit Risk; Crisis Management; Equity; Volatility; Credit; Risk Management; Financial Crisis
- Article
Scenario Generation for Long Run Interest Rate Risk Assessment
By: Robert F. Engle, Guillaume Roussellet and Emil N. Siriwardane
We propose a statistical model of the term structure of U.S. treasury yields tailored for long-term probability-based scenario generation and forecasts. Our model is easy to estimate and is able to simultaneously reproduce the positivity, persistence, and factor... View Details
- Research Summary
Concentrated Capital Losses and the Pricing of Corporate Credit Risk
In studying the U.S. credit default swap (CDS) market, Professor Siriwardane has discovered that the selling of CDS protection is extremely concentrated, with five sellers accounting for nearly half the market. Further, in contrast to what neoclassical theory... View Details
- Research Summary
Overview
In his research, Professor Siriwardane seeks to develop a quantitative understanding of how the financial sector affects asset prices and macroeconomic stability, particularly relevant in the wake of the financial crisis of the last decade. View Details
- Research Summary
Rare Consumption Disasters
Another defining feature of financial crises is consumption disasters, or large drops in aggregate consumption. Rather than taking the standard approach of seeking implications of such rare disasters for asset pricing in consumption data, Professor Siriwardane asks... View Details
- Research Summary
The Connection Between Volatility and Leverage
Professor Siriwardane has co-developed a new econometric model that captures the link between equity volatility and financial leverage, driven by the desire to incorporate the record levels of both leverage and volatility that characterized the 2008 financial crisis... View Details