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Research Summary

Firm and aggregate volatility

US publicly traded companies have become more volatile over the postwar period. This trend has been the result of increased competition in product markets through deregulation, through more intensive innovation activity, and through easier access to capital markets.... View Details

Research Summary

Time-Varying Volatility Risk Premia

This paper provides evidence for the existence of time-varying volatility risk premia. In doing so, it examines the evolution of the implied volatility bias in the S&P 100 from 1986-2006. Additionally, the paper proves three new results regarding the limiting... View Details

Research Summary

The Connection Between Volatility and Leverage

By: Emil N. Siriwardane

Professor Siriwardane has co-developed a new econometric model that captures the link between equity volatility and financial leverage, driven by the desire to incorporate the record levels of both leverage and volatility that characterized the 2008 financial crisis... View Details

Article

Diverging Trends in Macro and Micro Volatility

By: Diego Comin and Sunil Mulani

This paper documents the diverging trends in volatility of the growth rate of sales at the aggregate and firm level. We establish that the upward trend in micro volatility is not simply driven by a compositional bias in the sample studied. We argue that this new fact... View Details

Keywords: Volatility; Mathematical Methods; Theory; Sales; Growth and Development

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2023
Working Paper

Investor Preferences, Security Design and Volatility Prices

By: Claire Célérier, Gordon Liao and Boris Vallée

This paper investigates the effects of the issuance of retail products with non-linear payoffs on option prices. For a given underlying asset, when the outstanding volume of products embedding a short-put position increases, implied volatility at the corresponding... View Details

Keywords: Security Design; Dividend; Options; Structured Products; Market Segmentation; Financial Instruments; Design; Volatility; Markets; Segmentation

June 2017 (Revised February 2019)
Case

Investing in Volatility at Evanston Capital Management

By: Adi Sunderam, Luis Viceira and Zhihan Ma

1987
Working Paper

Tests of Excess Forecast Volatility in the Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets

By: K. A. Froot

Simple regression tests that have power against the alternatives that asset prices and expected future asset returns are excessively volatile are developed and performed for the foreign exchange and stock markets. These tests have a number of advantages over... View Details

Keywords: Risk Aversion; Risk; International Investing; International Finance; Risk and Uncertainty; Asset Pricing; Financial Markets; Investment; Behavioral Finance; Volatility

November 2009
Journal Article

A Theory of Growth and Volatility at the Aggregate and Firm Level

By: Diego A. Comin and Sunil Mulani

This paper presents an endogenous growth model that explains the evolution of the first and second moments of productivity growth at the aggregate and firm level during the post-war period. Growth is driven by the development of both (i) idiosyncratic R&D innovations... View Details

Keywords: Volatility; Microeconomics; Innovation and Invention; Growth and Development Strategy; Resource Allocation; Performance Productivity; Mathematical Methods; Research and Development

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December 24, 2018
Editorial

Stock-Market Volatility Can Be Good for the Economy

By: Amar Bhidé

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October 2011 (Revised August 2017)
Case

Veracity Worldwide in Syria: Assessing Political Risk in a Volatile Environment

By: Aldo Musacchio and Sophus A. Reinert

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Government and Politics; Business and Government Relations; Syria

1995
Chapter

The Informational Role of Asset Prices: The Case of Implied Volatility

By: Zvi Bodie and Robert C. Merton

Keywords: Asset Pricing; Price; Volatility; Information

Research Summary

Corporate Bond Pricing and Different Sources of Asset Return Volatility (with George Chacko and Jens Hilscher)

This paper presents a pricing model for defaultable bonds. Default is defined by a cash flow, not value, covenant. The cash flow (total distributions) yield is stochastic. We find that different sources of volatility, cash flow versus discount rate news, affect... View Details

Article

Dynamic Consumption and Portfolio Choice with Stochastic Volatility in Incomplete Markets

By: George Chacko and Luis M. Viceira

Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions; Investment; Markets

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1995
Working Paper

The Informational Role of Asset Prices: The Case of Implied Volatility

By: Zvi Bodie and Robert C. Merton

April 12, 2023
Article

Using AI to Adjust Your Marketing and Sales in a Volatile World

By: Das Narayandas and Arijit Sengupta

Why are some firms better and faster than others at adapting their use of customer data to respond to changing or uncertain marketing conditions? A common thread across faster-acting firms is the use of AI models to predict outcomes at various stages of the customer... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; AI and Machine Learning; Consumer Behavior; Technology Adoption; Competitive Advantage

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Forthcoming
Chapter

Oil, Macroeconomic Volatility and Crime in the Determination of Beliefs in Venezuela

By: Rafael Di Tella, Javier Donna and Robert MacCulloch

Book Abstract: At the beginning of the twentieth century Venezuela had one of the poorest economies in Latin America, but by 1970 it had become the richest country in the region and one of the twenty richest countries in the world, ahead of countries such as Greece,... View Details

Keywords: Macroeconomics; Volatility; Crime and Corruption; Values and Beliefs; Non-Renewable Energy; Energy Industry; Venezuela

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March–April 2014
Article

The Low-Risk Anomaly: A Decomposition into Micro and Macro Effects

By: Malcolm Baker, Brendan Bradley and Ryan Taliaferro

Low beta stocks have offered a combination of low risk and high returns. We decompose the anomaly into micro and macro components. The micro component comes from the selection of low beta stocks. The macro component comes from the selection of low beta countries or... View Details

Keywords: Low Volatility; Beta; Portfolio Construction; Market Efficiency; Capital Asset Pricing Model; Asset Management

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2013
Working Paper

Asset Price Dynamics with Limited Attention

By: Mark Seasholes, Terrence Hendershott, Sunny X. Li and Albert J. Menkveld

This paper studies the role that limited attention and inefficient risk sharing play in stock price deviations from the efficient prices at horizons from one day to one month. We expand the Due (2010) slow-moving capital model to analyze multiple groups of investors... View Details

Keywords: Transitory Volatility; Limited Attention; Individuals; Market Makers; Asset Pricing; Financial Markets; Volatility

2017
Working Paper

Economic Uncertainty and Earnings Management

By: Luke C.D. Stein and Charles C.Y. Wang

In the presence of managerial short-termism and asymmetric information about skill and effort provision, firms may opportunistically shift earnings from uncertain to more certain times. We document empirically that when financial markets are less certain about a firm's... View Details

Keywords: Discretionary Accruals; Uncertainty; Implied Volatility; Earnings Response Coefficient; Risk and Uncertainty; Earnings Management; Financial Markets

January 2013
Teaching Note

Domino's Pizza (TN)

By: David E. Bell and Mary Shelman

Teaching Note for Domino's Pizza View Details

Keywords: Risk Management; Commodity Prices; Price Volatility; Agribusiness; QSR; Franchise; Food; Supply Chain Management; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Food and Beverage Industry; United States

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