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- All HBS Web
(1,824)
- People (1)
- News (166)
- Research (1,463)
- Events (6)
- Multimedia (10)
- Faculty Publications (1,157)
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- 2023
- Working Paper
Cognitive Uncertainty in Intertemporal Choice
By: Benjamin Enke and Thomas Graeber
This paper studies the relevance of cognitive uncertainty – subjective uncertainty over one's utility-maximizing action – for understanding and predicting intertemporal choice. The main idea is that when people are cognitively noisy, such as when a decision is complex,... View Details
Keywords: Cognitive Uncertainty; Intertemporal Choice; Cognition and Thinking; Complexity; Decision Choices and Conditions
Enke, Benjamin, and Thomas Graeber. "Cognitive Uncertainty in Intertemporal Choice." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29577, December 2021. (R&R at The Quarterly Journal of Economics.)
- 2017
- Working Paper
Economic Uncertainty and Earnings Management
By: Luke C.D. Stein and Charles C.Y. Wang
In the presence of managerial short-termism and asymmetric information about skill and effort provision, firms may opportunistically shift earnings from uncertain to more certain times. We document empirically that when financial markets are less certain about a firm's... View Details
Keywords: Discretionary Accruals; Uncertainty; Implied Volatility; Earnings Response Coefficient; Risk and Uncertainty; Earnings Management; Financial Markets
Stein, Luke C.D., and Charles C.Y. Wang. "Economic Uncertainty and Earnings Management." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 16-103, March 2016. (Revised April 2017.)
- December 2021
- Article
Trade Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns
By: Marcelo Bianconi, Federico Esposito and Marco Sammon
A recent literature has documented large real effects of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on trade, employment, and investment, but there is little evidence that investors are compensated for bearing such risk. To quantify the risk premium associated with TPU, we exploit... View Details
Keywords: Trade Policy; Uncertainty; Stock Returns; Risk Premium; Tariff Rates; Portfolio Analysis; Trade; Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Stocks; Investment Return
Bianconi, Marcelo, Federico Esposito, and Marco Sammon. "Trade Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns." Art. 102492. Journal of International Money and Finance 119 (December 2021).
- Article
Reciprocity and Uncertainty
By: Yoella Bereby-Meyer
Guala points to a discrepancy between strong negative reciprocity observed in the lab and the way cooperation is sustained "in the wild." This commentary suggests that in lab experiments, strong negative reciprocity is limited when uncertainty exists regarding the... View Details
Bereby-Meyer, Yoella. "Reciprocity and Uncertainty." Behavioral and Brain Sciences 35, no. 1 (February 2012): 18–19.
- 2020
- Working Paper
Reverse Information Sharing: Reducing Costs in Supply Chains with Yield Uncertainty
By: Pavithra Harsha, Ashish Jagmohan, Retsef Levi, Elisabeth Paulson and Georgia Perakis
Supply uncertainty in produce supply chains presents major challenges to retailers. Supply shortages create frequent disruptions in terms of promised delivery times, quantity and quality delivered. To alleviate these challenges, dual sourcing--a strategy in which... View Details
Keywords: Information Sharing; Yield Uncertainty; Ration Gaming; Blockchain; Supply Chain; Risk and Uncertainty
Harsha, Pavithra, Ashish Jagmohan, Retsef Levi, Elisabeth Paulson, and Georgia Perakis. "Reverse Information Sharing: Reducing Costs in Supply Chains with Yield Uncertainty." MIT Sloan Research Paper, No. 6172-20, October 2020.
- February 20, 2013
- Article
Embracing Uncertainty
By: Alan MacCormack
MacCormack, Alan. "Embracing Uncertainty." MIT Technology Review (website) (February 20, 2013).
- April 1991 (Revised April 1993)
- Background Note
Strategic Response to Uncertainty
Managers often ignore uncertainty and plan as if the world were certain. Frequently, strategy is formulated based on an extrapolation of current trends into the future, or the best guess scenario of the manager involved. This note discusses four approaches to shaping... View Details
Teisberg, Elizabeth O. "Strategic Response to Uncertainty." Harvard Business School Background Note 391-192, April 1991. (Revised April 1993.)
- 24 Mar 2016
- Working Paper Summaries
Economic Uncertainty and Earnings Management
- 1995
- Book
Decisions under Uncertainty
By: D. E. Bell and A. Schleifer Jr.
Keywords: Decision Choices and Conditions
Bell, D. E., and A. Schleifer Jr. Decisions under Uncertainty. Cambridge, MA: Course Technology Inc. (CTI), 1995.
- Research Summary
Optimal Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Inventory control problems in supply chains. In this stream of theoretical research, Professor Goh has investigated how inventory should be optimally managed in supply chains. Specifically, he has studied how supply chains can make decisions to operate... View Details
- Research Summary
Inflation Uncertainty and the Wage Bargain
Joint work with Hans-Joachim Voth, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona.
Trade unions often seem to behave in a more militant fashion when inflation rises. We provide the first theory as to why this should be so. We argue that uncertainty about the rate of inflation... View Details
- Research Summary
Strategic Uncertainty and Communication in Bargaining
A second field of research deals with the effects of strategic uncertainty and communication on bargaining behavior. Stylized bargaining situations are the simplest prototypes of strategic interaction. However, their experimental study provides us with insights which... View Details
- July 2022
- Article
The Pass-Through of Uncertainty Shocks to Households
By: Marco Di Maggio, Amir Kermani, Rodney Ramcharan, Vincent Yao and Edison Yu
Using new employer-employee matched data, this paper investigates the impact of uncertainty, as measured by idiosyncratic stock market volatility, on individual outcomes. We find that firms provide at best partial insurance to their workers. An increase in firm-level... View Details
Keywords: Employment Risk; Consumption; Employment; Risk and Uncertainty; System Shocks; Insurance; Household; Spending
Di Maggio, Marco, Amir Kermani, Rodney Ramcharan, Vincent Yao, and Edison Yu. "The Pass-Through of Uncertainty Shocks to Households." Journal of Financial Economics 145, no. 1 (July 2022): 85–104. (2023 Fama-DFA Prize for the Best Paper Published in the Journal of Financial Economics in Asset Pricing, 2nd place.)
- July 1986
- Article
Inflation, Uncertainty and Investment
By: Carliss Y. Baldwin and R. S. Ruback
Baldwin, Carliss Y., and R. S. Ruback. "Inflation, Uncertainty and Investment." Journal of Finance 41, no. 3 (July 1986): 657–668.
- 08 Apr 2011
- Conference Presentation
Assessing Risk and Uncertainty
By: Anette Mikes
Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty
- December 2002
- Article
The Pricing of Event Risks with Parameter Uncertainty
By: K. A. Froot and S. Posner
Keywords: Catastrophe Risk; Corporate Finance; Cost Of Capital; Banking And Insurance; Asset Pricing; Hedging; Banking; Insurance; Decision Choice And Uncertainty; Financial Markets; Policy; Risk Management; Natural Disasters; Insurance Industry
Froot, K. A., and S. Posner. "The Pricing of Event Risks with Parameter Uncertainty." Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance: Theory 27, no. 2 (December 2002): 153–165. (Revised from NBER Working Paper no. 8106, February 2001.)
- December 1979
- Article
Liquidity Preference under Uncertainty
By: Carliss Y. Baldwin and Richard F. Meyer
Baldwin, Carliss Y., and Richard F. Meyer. "Liquidity Preference under Uncertainty." Journal of Financial Economics 7, no. 4 (December 1979).
- Teaching Interest
Decision Making Under Uncertainty
By: David E. Bell
Many of the decisions we face are made complicated by having uncertain consequences: how should I set my inventory when I don’t know what demand will be, should I refinance my mortgage when rates might go lower, how big a bet shall I make in a new business, and so... View Details
- February 2024
- Case
Nuwa Capital: Investing During Uncertainty
By: Paul A. Gompers and Fares Khrais
Nuwa Capital (Nuwa) was a venture capital firm based in Dubai in the United Arab Emirates and Riyadh in Saudi Arabia. The business was founded in 2020 by Khaled Talhouni and his partners Sarah Abu Risheh, and Stephanie Nour Prince (they were later joined by Nitin Reen... View Details
Keywords: Corporate Entrepreneurship; Business Startups; Disruption; Entrepreneurship; Venture Capital; Investment; Growth and Development Strategy; Business Strategy; Decisions; Middle East; Saudi Arabia; United Arab Emirates; Dubai; Bahrain
Gompers, Paul A., and Fares Khrais. "Nuwa Capital: Investing During Uncertainty." Harvard Business School Case 224-016, February 2024.