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  • Article

Trimmed Opinion Pools and the Crowd's Calibration Problem

By: Victor Richmond R. Jose, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Kenneth C. Lichtendahl
We introduce an alternative to the popular linear opinion pool for combining individual probability forecasts. One of the well-known problems with the linear opinion pool is that it can be poorly calibrated. It tends toward underconfidence as the crowd's diversity... View Details
Keywords: Trimmed Opinion Pools; Forecasting and Prediction
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  • Article

Is it Better to Average Probabilities or Quantiles?

By: Kenneth C. Lichtendahl, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Robert L. Winkler
We consider two ways to aggregate expert opinions using simple averages: averaging probabilities and averaging quantiles. We examine analytical properties of these forecasts and compare their ability to harness the wisdom of the crowd. In terms of location, the two... View Details
Keywords: Probability Forecasts; Quantile Forecasts; Expert Combination; Linear Opinion Pooling; Forecasting and Prediction
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  • 2018
  • Working Paper

Bayesian Ensembles of Binary-Event Forecasts: When Is It Appropriate to Extremize or Anti-Extremize?

By: Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr., Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Victor Richmond R. Jose and Robert L. Winkler
Many organizations face critical decisions that rely on forecasts of binary events. In these situations, organizations often gather forecasts from multiple experts or models and average those forecasts to produce a single aggregate forecast. Because the average... View Details
Keywords: Forecast Aggregation; Linear Opinion Pool; Generalized Additive Model; Generalized Linear Model; Stacking.; Forecasting and Prediction
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  • Article

Ensembles of Overfit and Overconfident Forecasts

By: Y. Grushka-Cockayne, V.R.R. Jose and K. C. Lichtendahl
Firms today average forecasts collected from multiple experts and models. Because of cognitive biases, strategic incentives, or the structure of machine-learning algorithms, these forecasts are often overfit to sample data and are overconfident. Little is known about... View Details
Keywords: Decision Analysis; Data Science; Forecasting and Prediction; Data and Data Sets
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  • 24 Apr 2007
  • First Look

First Look: April 24, 2007

Luce's magazines often resonated with readers, allowing him to quickly trump competitors such as Newsweek, Forbes, The New Yorker, Esquire, and National Geographic. Yet Luce was also criticized for occasionally using his imaginative style to inject his View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 25 Jul 2017
  • First Look

First Look at New Research and Ideas: July 25, 2017

individual ethics and as a specific version of a broader argument made for centuries by theorists from Hume to Hayek. I also provide evidence of an example in which real-world policy judgments are consistent with this theoretical argument. Results from a novel U.S.... View Details
Keywords: Carmen Nobel
  • 01 Nov 2022
  • What Do You Think?

Why Aren’t Business Leaders More Vocal About Immigration Policy?

gone on for decades as a giant skimming effect that benefits the US while reducing the talent pool of countries offering the least opportunity. Few groups have been as maligned or as poorly portrayed as our immigrant pool. This has been... View Details
Keywords: by James Heskett
  • 19 Apr 2010
  • Research & Ideas

The History of Beauty

business than others, as the obstacles to entry for female entrepreneurs have been and continue to be higher for women than men in other industries, like construction, for example. So there is a lot of female entrepreneurial talent View Details
Keywords: by Sean Silverthorne; Beauty & Cosmetics
  • 11 Jul 2016
  • HBS Case

Neurodiversity: The Benefits of Recruiting Employees with Cognitive Disabilities

There’s a new frontier in diversity programs focused not on race or gender but on cognitive ability. The growing interest in neurodiversity—hiring people with cognitive disabilities like Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD)—is motivated by companies looking to tap into a... View Details
Keywords: by Roberta Holland; Technology
  • 11 Oct 2006
  • What Do You Think?

How Do We Respond to the “Dependency Ratio” Dilemma?

Summing Up Dependency ratios are useful as general indicators of future economic and social health. But they must be managed downward on both a micro and macro basis, in the opinion of the majority of respondents to this month's column.... View Details
Keywords: by Jim Heskett
  • 11 May 2009
  • Research & Ideas

The IT Leader’s Hero Quest

with a diverse set of companies. "In this way, we could pool all this knowledge and distill it down to the essential principles that CIOs can generally apply, regardless of industry or size of firm, while describing 'realistic' and... View Details
Keywords: by Martha Lagace
  • 01 Nov 2019
  • What Do You Think?

Should Non-Compete Clauses Be Abolished?

violation of a non-compete? That’s the question raised by GYurieff, who said: “The difference in knowledge an individual brings into an organization and the knowledge this individual may take out of the organization—how is it measured? How is valued and by whom?” The... View Details
Keywords: by James Heskett
  • 06 Sep 2004
  • What Do You Think?

How Do We Prepare for a World Without Cheap Oil?

consumption. As John Friedery put it, "I believe that markets will regulate consumption ...." Suman Das opines that "The world is a very resilient place." "Relatively minor lifestyle changes can lead to huge reductions in energy usage," in... View Details
Keywords: by James Heskett
  • 31 Jan 2017
  • Research & Ideas

Why These Business School Professors Oppose Trump's Executive Order on Immigration

be non-American. Andy Grove, a survivor of the Holocaust, would not have wanted to come to a country that didn’t welcome immigrants. Moreover, it is no wonder that Silicon Valley is up in arms over this policy. Our most dynamic industry depends on tapping into the best... View Details
Keywords: by Staff
  • 15 Sep 2009
  • First Look

First Look: September 15

under risk), one-shot decisions from experience, and repeated decisions from experience. Each competition was based on two experimental datasets: an estimation dataset and a competition dataset. The studies that generated the two datasets used the same methods and... View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace
  • 08 Feb 2018
  • Op-Ed

What’s Missing From the Debate About Trump’s Tax Plan

plan, both consistent with a long tradition from the right of center. Once these are understood, forming an informed opinion on the plan—which will be an important task for Americans in the coming years—becomes possible. The view from tax... View Details
Keywords: by Matthew Weinzierl
  • 26 May 2009
  • Research & Ideas

Improving Market Research in a Recession

based on fewer expenditures. For example, combining data sets may reveal new leading indicators of changes in consumer behavior. Tracking studies may have an edge over one-off projects. CMOs who trim costs by consolidating their budgets... View Details
Keywords: by John Quelch
  • 02 Apr 2013
  • First Look

First Look: April 2

returns can produce large valuation errors. Download working paper: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2182628 The Impact of Pooling on Throughput Time in Discretionary Work Settings: An Empirical Investigation of Emergency Department Length of... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 03 Apr 2013
  • What Do You Think?

Will Women Leaders Influence the Way We Work?

next (question) already???" Others were split on whether the gender of the leader matters. And there didn't appear to be a discernable difference in the opinions of men and women among the thoughtful responses. Clara Tenby commented... View Details
Keywords: by James Heskett
  • 03 Jul 2012
  • Research & Ideas

HBS Faculty on Supreme Court Health Care Ruling

the average expenses of the sick enrolled in state high-risk pools ranged from $8,000 to $24,000. Even the top 10 percent of taxpayers, with incomes over $110,000, could barely afford these sums. Sick people are currently insured because... View Details
Keywords: Re: Multiple Faculty; Health

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