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  • All HBS Web  (12)
    • Faculty Publications  (3)

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    • All HBS Web  (12)
      • Faculty Publications  (3)

      Transitory VolatilityRemove Transitory Volatility →

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      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      Valuing Stocks With Earnings

      By: Sebastian Hillenbrand and Odhrain McCarthy
      We show that commonly used aggregate earnings are several times as volatile as stock prices over the last three decades. Movements in the price-earnings ratio are thus entirely explained by earnings growth and unrelated to future returns. As an alternative to the... View Details
      Keywords: Price; Investment Portfolio; Stocks; Behavioral Finance; Accounting
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      Hillenbrand, Sebastian, and Odhrain McCarthy. "Valuing Stocks With Earnings." Working Paper, April 2024.
      • 2018
      • Working Paper

      Global Portfolio Diversification for Long-Horizon Investors

      By: Luis M. Viceira and Zixuan (Kevin) Wang
      This paper conducts a theoretical and empirical investigation of global portfolio diversification for long-horizon investors in the presence of permanent cash flow shocks and transitory discount rate shocks to asset prices and returns. An increase in the cross-country... View Details
      Keywords: Investment Portfolio; Risk and Uncertainty; Diversification; Capital Markets; Global Range
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      Viceira, Luis M., and Zixuan (Kevin) Wang. "Global Portfolio Diversification for Long-Horizon Investors." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 17-085, March 2017. (Revised July 2018.)
      • 2025
      • Working Paper

      Street Earnings: Implications for Asset Pricing

      By: Sebastian Hillenbrand and Odhrain McCarthy
      To address the excess volatility puzzle – the excessive movements in stock prices – researchers often study movements in valuation ratios. However, we demonstrate that movements in valuation ratios based on fundamental measures with high transitory volatility, such as... View Details
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      Hillenbrand, Sebastian, and Odhrain McCarthy. "Street Earnings: Implications for Asset Pricing." Working Paper, June 2025.
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