Publications

2025
Working Paper

Exports in Disguise? Trade Rerouting During the U.S.-China Trade War

By: Ebehi Iyoha, Edmund Malesky, Jaya Wen and Sung-Ju Wu

This paper introduces a new measure of tariff evasion through rerouting and applies it to the 2018 U.S.–China trade war, focusing on Vietnam as a transit country. We use transaction-level trade data and define rerouting as the flow of a granular eight-digit Harmonized... View Details

Keywords: Trade; International Relations; Logistics; China; Viet Nam; United States

August 2019
Case

Huawei and the U.S.-China Trade War

By: Elie Ofek and John Masko

In 2019, Chinese smartphone maker and telecommunications empire Huawei was preparing to launch its new flagship smartphone series, the Mate 30. After years of explosive growth, the previous 18 months had been a challenge for the company. In early 2018, Huawei’s planned... View Details

Keywords: Trade; Global Strategy; International Relations; National Security; Mobile and Wireless Technology; Information Infrastructure; Volatility; Adaptation; Telecommunications Industry; China; United States; European Union

April 2022
Case

The First Opium War and Global Free Trade

By: Jeremy Friedman and Allison Lazarus

The First Opium War (1839-1842) symbolized the peak of the era of European imperialism, with a political and cultural legacy that remains potent to this day. The British Empire, “acquired in a fit of absent-mindedness” as one observer famously claimed, seemed to be... View Details

Keywords: Imperialism; Narcotics; Importing; History; Globalized Markets and Industries; Trade; Social Issues

August 2015 (Revised January 2017)
Background Note

Evolving Trends in Global Trade

By: Dante Roscini and Annelena Lobb

The note, while not intended to be historically comprehensive, explores the regulation of international trade from the period after World War II to developments in 2010, focusing on shifts in trade theory and policy as well as economic benefits and disadvantages... View Details

Keywords: Trade Negotiations; Development Economics; Developing Countries and Economies; Governance; Negotiation; Globalization; Trade; Policy; History; Europe; Latin America; North and Central America; Asia; Africa; China

September 2019 (Revised January 2022)
Teaching Note

The U.S. – China Trade War

By: Alberto Cavallo

Teaching Note for HBS No. 719-034. View Details

February 2023
Teaching Note

The First Opium War and Global Free Trade

By: Jeremy Friedman

Teaching Note for HBS Case 722-052. View Details

March 2013
Case

Currency Wars

By: Laura Alfaro and Hilary White

In February 2013, the G-20 finance ministers met in Moscow, Russia to discuss the rising anxieties over a potential international currency war. It was speculated that certain countries were purposely devaluing their currencies in order to improve their competitiveness... View Details

Keywords: Currency; Competitiveness; Trade Policy; Devaluation; Exchange Rate; Monetary Policy; Quantitative Easing; Inflation Targeting; Capital Flows; Central Banking; Currency Exchange Rate; Competitive Strategy; Emerging Markets; Policy; Trade; Conflict and Resolution; Banking Industry; Public Administration Industry; Moscow

2019
Working Paper

The Consequences of Invention Secrecy: Evidence from the USPTO Patent Secrecy Program in World War II

By: Daniel P. Gross

This paper studies the effects of the USPTO's patent secrecy program in World War II, under which over 11,000 U.S. patent applications were issued secrecy orders that halted examination and prohibited inventors from disclosing their inventions or filing in foreign... View Details

Keywords: Invention Secrecy; Invention Disclosure; Trade Secrecy; Secrecy Orders; Cummulative Innovation; Wold War 2; Patents; National Security; History; Innovation and Invention; Outcome or Result; Intellectual Property; Policy; Commercialization; United States

SSRN

February 2017
Article

Resident Networks and Corporate Connections: Evidence from World War II Internment Camps

By: Lauren Cohen, Umit Gurun and Christopher J. Malloy

We demonstrate that simply by using the ethnic makeup surrounding a firm’s location, we can predict, on average, which trade links are valuable for firms. Using customs and port authority data on the international shipments of all U.S. publicly traded firms, we show... View Details

Keywords: Information Networks; Trade Links; Firm Behavior; Networks; Geographic Location; Ethnicity; Organizations; Trade

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06 Dec 2006
Op-Ed

India Needs to Encourage Trade with China

"sufficient" or even "respectable" volume of bilateral trade. There is a notion in international trade, called the gravity model, which suggests that, ceteris paribus, countries that are larger and more proximate tend to View Details

Keywords: by Tarun Khanna

March 2021
Article

The Effectiveness of White-Collar Crime Enforcement: Evidence from the War on Terror

By: Trung Nguyen

This paper analyzes the impact of changes in regulatory priorities and resource allocation on criminal enforcement of white‐collar criminal activities. Using the 9/11 terrorist attacks as a shock to the FBI's priorities and allocation of investigative resources, as... View Details

Keywords: White-collar Crime; Government Regulation; Financial Fraud; Securities Fraud; Insider Trading; Crime and Corruption; Finance; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Law Enforcement

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11 Dec 2018
Research & Ideas

Free Trade Needs Nurturing—and Other Lessons from History

and started World War I, and it all collapsed. As percentages of GDP, we didn’t return to those earlier levels of global capital flows until the 1990s. Global free trade is not the natural order of things.... View Details

Keywords: by Staff; Auto; Aerospace; Chemical; Consumer Products; Electronics; Energy; Industrial Products; Manufacturing; Shipping; Transportation

January 2017
Article

Beyond Zeroes and Ones: The Intensity and Dynamics of Civil Conflict

By: Stephen Chaudoin, Zachary Peskowitz and Christopher Stanton

There is a tremendous amount of variation in conflict intensity both across and within civil conflicts. Some conflicts result in huge numbers of battle deaths, while others do not. Conflict intensity is also dynamic. Conflict intensity escalates, deescalates, and... View Details

Keywords: Civil Wars; Political Economy; Conflict; Trade Interdependence; War; Microeconomics

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September 10, 2022
Article

NFT Sales: Clearing the Market, Avoiding Gas Wars

By: Scott Duke Kominers and Tim Roughgarden

Instead of letting the market decide the price for their primary sale offerings, many NFT projects choose to initially sell their NFTs at prices below the market-clearing level. But what happens when market designers trade off efficiency for equity; or when demand far... View Details

Keywords: Blockchain; Crypto Economy; Cryptocurrency; NFTs; Auctions; Market Design; Price

June 2016 (Revised March 2017)
Case

Global Wine War 2015: New World Versus Old

By: Christopher A. Bartlett and Sarah McAra

This case contrasts the tradition-bound Old World wine industry with the market-oriented New World producers in the battle for the Chinese wine market in 2015. China’s wine consumption growth presented a large and fast-growing export target that was extremely... View Details

13 Mar 2019
Working Paper Summaries

The Consequences of Invention Secrecy: Evidence from the USPTO Patent Secrecy Program in World War II

Keywords: by Daniel P. Gross

August 2009
Case

Global Wine War 2009: New World versus Old

By: Christopher A. Bartlett

The case contrasts the tradition-bound Old World wine industry with the market-oriented New World producers, the battle for the US market, the most desirable export target in 2009 due to its large, fast-growing, high-priced market segments. The case allows analysis of... View Details

Keywords: Trade; Global Strategy; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Consumer Behavior; Market Entry and Exit; Competition; Food and Beverage Industry