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Article

The Unprecedented Stock Market Reaction to COVID-19

By: Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis, Kyle Kost, Marco Sammon and Tasaneeya Viratyosin

No previous infectious disease outbreak, including the Spanish Flu, has impacted the stock market as forcefully as the COVID-19 pandemic. In fact, previous pandemics left only mild traces on the U.S. stock market. We use text-based methods to develop these points with... View Details

Keywords: COVID-19; Stock Market; Health Pandemics; Governance; Policy; Financial Markets

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2016
Working Paper

The Stock Market and Bank Risk-Taking

By: David S. Scharfstein and Antonio Falato

We argue that stock market pressure to generate earnings encourages banks to increase risk. We measure risk using confidential supervisory ratings as well as financial information released in regulatory filings. We document that there is an increase in the risk-taking... View Details

Keywords: Stock Market; Financial Markets; Business Earnings; Banks and Banking; Risk and Uncertainty

October 2023
Article

Stock Market Stimulus

By: Robin Greenwood, Toomas Laarits and Jeffrey Wurgler

We study the stock market effects of the arrival of the three rounds of “stimulus checks” to U.S. taxpayers and the single round of direct payments to Hong Kong citizens. The first two rounds of U.S. checks appear to have increased retail buying and share prices of... View Details

Keywords: Stock Market; COVID-19 Pandemic; Fiscal Stimulus; Stimulus Payments; Impact; Stocks; System Shocks; Price; Spending; United States; Hong Kong

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2022
Working Paper

Stock Market Stimulus

By: Robin Greenwood, Toomas Laarits and Jeffrey Wurgler

We study the stock market effects of the arrival of the three rounds of “stimulus checks” to U.S. taxpayers and the single round of direct payments to Hong Kong citizens. The first two rounds of U.S. checks appear to have increased retail buying and share prices of... View Details

Keywords: Stock Market; COVID-19 Pandemic; Fiscal Stimulus; Stimulus Payments; Impact; Stocks; System Shocks; Price; Spending; United States; Hong Kong; China

June 2014
Case

Stock Options at Celia-Check

By: Brian Hall, Andrew Wasynczuk and Karen Huang

Describes issues facing three young founders of a high-tech start-up, including hiring an experienced CEO and negotiating with a potential VC investor. Focuses on the incentive and compensation aspects of negotiating with job candidates (e.g., what percentage of the... View Details

Keywords: Stock Options; Venture Capital; Selection and Staffing; Negotiation; Executive Compensation; Employee Stock Ownership Plan; Business Startups; Management Teams; Technology Industry; United States

August 10, 2022
Article

The Virtues of Stock Buybacks

By: Jesse M. Fried and Charles C.Y. Wang

Keywords: Stock Buybacks

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2022
Working Paper

What Triggers National Stock Market Jumps?

By: Scott R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis and Marco Sammon

We examine newspapers the day after major stock-market jumps to evaluate the proximate cause, geographic source, and clarity of these events from 1900 in the US, 1930 in the UK and 1980 in 12 other countries. We find four main results. First, the United States plays an... View Details

Keywords: Uncertainty; Policy Uncertainty; Stock Market; Financial Markets; Volatility; Risk and Uncertainty; Policy; Newspapers

2022
Working Paper

Heterogeneous Investors and Stock Market Fluctuations

By: Odhrain McCarthy and Sebastian Hillenbrand

We introduce a heterogeneous agent model which features extrapolative beliefs and time-varying risk aversion. The model leads to an empirical framework which we estimate with stock prices, survey data and risk aversion measures. We find that extrapolative beliefs and... View Details

Keywords: Stock Market; Investment Decisions; Asset Pricing; Investment; Behavioral Finance; Stocks

2020
Working Paper

Aggregate and Firm-Level Stock Returns During Pandemics, in Real Time

By: Laura Alfaro, Anusha Chari, Andrew Greenland and Peter K. Schott

We show that unexpected changes in the trajectory of COVID-19 infections predict U.S. stock returns, in real time. Parameter estimates indicate that an unanticipated doubling (halving) of projected infections forecasts next-day decreases (increases) in aggregate U.S.... View Details

Keywords: COVID-19; Stock Returns; Health Pandemics; Stocks; Investment Return; Forecasting and Prediction

19 Mar 2013
News

The Stock Market and the Economy's Apparent Disconnect

Keywords: Finance; Economy; Stocks

December 2021
Article

Trade Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns

By: Marcelo Bianconi, Federico Esposito and Marco Sammon

A recent literature has documented large real effects of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on trade, employment, and investment, but there is little evidence that investors are compensated for bearing such risk. To quantify the risk premium associated with TPU, we exploit... View Details

Keywords: Trade Policy; Uncertainty; Stock Returns; Risk Premium; Tariff Rates; Portfolio Analysis; Trade; Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Stocks; Investment Return

March 2011
Article

Do Sell-Side Stock Analysts Exhibit Escalation of Commitment?

By: John Beshears and Katherine L. Milkman

This paper presents evidence that when an analyst makes an out-of-consensus forecast of a company's quarterly earnings that turns out to be incorrect, she escalates her commitment to maintaining an out-of-consensus view on the company. Relative to an analyst who was... View Details

Keywords: Escalation Of Commitment; Stock Market; Updating; Behavioral Economics; Motivation and Incentives; Behavior; Consumer Behavior; Financial Markets; Forecasting and Prediction

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July 2021
Article

Material Sustainability Information and Stock Price Informativeness

By: Jody Grewal, Clarissa Hauptmann and George Serafeim

As part of the SEC’s revision of Regulation S-K, many investors proposed the mandatory disclosure of sustainability information in the form of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) data. However, progress is contingent on collecting evidence regarding which... View Details

Keywords: Voluntary Disclosure; Accounting Standards; Sustainability; Nonfinancial Information; Corporate Social Responsibility; Stock Price Informativeness; Synchronicity; Environmental Sustainability; Corporate Disclosure; Corporate Accountability; Stocks; Price; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Accounting; Standards

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March 2004 (Revised October 2013)
Case

Innocents Abroad: Currencies and International Stock Returns

By: Mihir A. Desai, Kathleen Luchs, Elizabeth A. Meyer and Mark Veblen

What do international stocks contribute to the portfolio of a U.S. investor? How do currencies interact with stock price movements in determining the benefits of international diversification? This case helps students compare the risks and returns of foreign stock... View Details

May 2013
Article

The Stock Selection and Performance of Buy-Side Analysts

By: Boris Groysberg, Paul Healy, George Serafeim and Devin Shanthikumar

Prior research on equity analysts focuses almost exclusively on those employed by sell-side investment banks and brokerage houses. Yet investment firms undertake their own buy-side research and their analysts face different stock selection and recommendation incentives... View Details

Keywords: Buy-side Analysts; Sell-side Analysts; Stock Recommendations; Recommendation Optimism; Recommendation Performance; Investment Recommendations; Conflicts Of Interest; Financial Markets; Financial Institutions; Financial Services Industry; United States

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August 2005 (Revised April 2014)
Teaching Note

Innocents Abroad: Currencies and International Stock Returns

By: Mihir A. Desai, Kathleen Luchs, Elizabeth A. Meyer and Mark Veblen

What do international stocks contribute to the portfolio of a U.S. investor? How do currencies interact with stock price movements in determining the benefits of international diversification? This case helps students compare the risks and returns of foreign stock... View Details

Article

The Stock Selection and Performance of Buy-Side Analysts

By: Boris Groysberg, Paul M. Healy, Georgios Serafeim, Devin Shanthikumar and Gui Yang

We examine the selection and performance of stocks recommended by analysts at a large investment firm relative to those of sell-side analysts during the period mid-1997 and 2004. The buy-side firm's analysts issued less optimistic recommendations for stocks with larger... View Details

Keywords: Buy-side Analysts; Sell-side Analysts; Stock Recommendations; Recommendation Optimism; Recommendation Performance; Investment Recommendations; Conflicts Of Interest; Financial Markets; Financial Institutions; Stocks; Financial Services Industry; United States

Spring 2013
Article

Accounting Quality, Stock Price Delay, and Future Stock Returns

By: Jeffrey Callen, Mozaffar N. Khan and Hai Lu

In frictionless capital markets with complete information and rational investors, stock prices adjust to new information instantaneously and completely. However, a substantial body of research studies information imperfections such as asymmetric information and... View Details

Keywords: Quality; Price; Stocks; Asset Pricing; Accounting

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December 2001 (Revised June 2002)
Case

Shenzhen Stock Exchange

By: F. Warren McFarlan, Guoqing Chen, David Kiron and Iris T. Li

The second largest stock exchange in China, shows a surprising sophistication. This case describes the company's growth and underlying technology. View Details

Keywords: Networks; Internet and the Web; Business Growth and Maturation; Infrastructure; Financial Services Industry; China

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27 Oct 2009
Working Paper Summaries

Stock Price Fragility

Keywords: by Robin Greenwood & David Thesmar

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