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(755)
- News (154)
- Research (557)
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- 2020
- Working Paper
Aggregate and Firm-Level Stock Returns During Pandemics, in Real Time
By: Laura Alfaro, Anusha Chari, Andrew Greenland and Peter K. Schott
We show that unexpected changes in the trajectory of COVID-19 infections predict U.S. stock returns, in real time. Parameter estimates indicate that an unanticipated doubling (halving) of projected infections forecasts next-day decreases (increases) in aggregate U.S.... View Details
Keywords: COVID-19; Stock Returns; Health Pandemics; Stocks; Investment Return; Forecasting and Prediction
Alfaro, Laura, Anusha Chari, Andrew Greenland, and Peter K. Schott. "Aggregate and Firm-Level Stock Returns During Pandemics, in Real Time." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 26950, April 2020. (Revised May 2020.)
- December 2021
- Article
Trade Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns
By: Marcelo Bianconi, Federico Esposito and Marco Sammon
A recent literature has documented large real effects of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on trade, employment, and investment, but there is little evidence that investors are compensated for bearing such risk. To quantify the risk premium associated with TPU, we exploit... View Details
Keywords: Trade Policy; Uncertainty; Stock Returns; Risk Premium; Tariff Rates; Portfolio Analysis; Trade; Policy; Risk and Uncertainty; Stocks; Investment Return
Bianconi, Marcelo, Federico Esposito, and Marco Sammon. "Trade Policy Uncertainty and Stock Returns." Art. 102492. Journal of International Money and Finance 119 (December 2021).
- 2021
- Working Paper
Stock Investors' Returns Are Exaggerated
By: Jesse M. Fried, Paul Ma and Charles C.Y. Wang
The stock market generates less wealth than it appears. We show that total shareholder return (TSR), the standard measure of stock investor performance, substantially exaggerates returns earned by these investors in aggregate, and thus by most investors. The main... View Details
Keywords: All-shareholder Returns; Capital Flows; Dividend Reinvestment; Equity Premium; Total Shareholder Returns; Stocks; Investment Return; Market Timing
Fried, Jesse M., Paul Ma, and Charles C.Y. Wang. "Stock Investors' Returns Are Exaggerated." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-036, November 2021.
- March 2004 (Revised October 2013)
- Case
Innocents Abroad: Currencies and International Stock Returns
By: Mihir A. Desai, Kathleen Luchs, Elizabeth A. Meyer and Mark Veblen
What do international stocks contribute to the portfolio of a U.S. investor? How do currencies interact with stock price movements in determining the benefits of international diversification? This case helps students compare the risks and returns of foreign stock... View Details
Keywords: Diversification; International CAPM; CAPM; Home Bias; Currency Risk; Exchange Rate Risk; International Stock Market Returns; United States; Currency Exchange Rate; Stocks; Financial Markets; International Finance; Investment Return; Currency; Risk and Uncertainty; Emerging Markets; Investment Portfolio; Financial Services Industry; United States; Australia; Canada; China; Germany; India; Japan; United Kingdom
Desai, Mihir A., Kathleen Luchs, Elizabeth A. Meyer, and Mark Veblen. "Innocents Abroad: Currencies and International Stock Returns." Harvard Business School Case 204-141, March 2004. (Revised October 2013.)
- August 2005 (Revised April 2014)
- Teaching Note
Innocents Abroad: Currencies and International Stock Returns
By: Mihir A. Desai, Kathleen Luchs, Elizabeth A. Meyer and Mark Veblen
What do international stocks contribute to the portfolio of a U.S. investor? How do currencies interact with stock price movements in determining the benefits of international diversification? This case helps students compare the risks and returns of foreign stock... View Details
Keywords: Diversification; International CAPM; CAPM; Home Bias; Currency Risk; Exchange Rate Risk; International Stock Market Returns; Financial Services Industry; United States; Currency Exchange Rate; Stocks; Financial Markets; International Finance; Investment Return; Currency; Risk and Uncertainty; Emerging Markets; Investment Portfolio; United States; Australia; Canada; China; Germany; India; Japan; United Kingdom
- 2021
- Working Paper
Connecting Expected Stock Returns to Accounting Valuation Multiples: A Primer
By: Akash Chattopadhyay, Matthew R. Lyle and Charles C.Y. Wang
We outline a framework in which accounting “valuation anchors" could be connected to expected stock returns. Under two general conditions, expected log returns is a log-linear function of a valuation (market value-to-accounting) multiple and the expected growth in the... View Details
Keywords: Expected Returns; Present Value; Investment Return; Accounting; Valuation; Information; Framework
Chattopadhyay, Akash, Matthew R. Lyle, and Charles C.Y. Wang. "Connecting Expected Stock Returns to Accounting Valuation Multiples: A Primer." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-081, January 2021.
- January–February 2021
- Article
Cross‐firm Return Predictability and Accounting Quality
By: Wen Chen, Mozaffar Khan, Leonid Kogan and George Serafeim
We test the hypothesis that if poor accounting quality (AQ) is associated with poor investor understanding of firms’ revenue and cost structures, then poor AQ stocks likely respond more slowly than good AQ stocks to new non‐idiosyncratic information that affects both... View Details
Keywords: Accounting Quality; Earnings Quality; Stock Returns; Investment Strategy; Accounting; Business Earnings; Quality; Investment Return; Investment; Strategy
Chen, Wen, Mozaffar Khan, Leonid Kogan, and George Serafeim. "Cross‐firm Return Predictability and Accounting Quality." Journal of Business Finance & Accounting 48, nos. 1-2 (January–February 2021): 70–101.
- Spring 2013
- Article
Accounting Quality, Stock Price Delay, and Future Stock Returns
By: Jeffrey Callen, Mozaffar N. Khan and Hai Lu
In frictionless capital markets with complete information and rational investors, stock prices adjust to new information instantaneously and completely. However, a substantial body of research studies information imperfections such as asymmetric information and... View Details
Callen, Jeffrey, Mozaffar N. Khan, and Hai Lu. "Accounting Quality, Stock Price Delay, and Future Stock Returns." Contemporary Accounting Research 30, no. 1 (Spring 2013): 269–295.
- Article
Liquidity Provision and Stock Return Predictability
By: Mark Seasholes and Terrence Hendershott
This paper examines the trading behavior of two groups of liquidity providers (specialists and competing market makers) using a six-year panel of NYSE data. Trades of each group are negatively correlated with contemporaneous price changes. To test for return... View Details
Keywords: Liquidity; Market Makers; Market Efficiency; Inventory; Liquidity Provision; Market Design; Financial Liquidity; Stocks; Investment Return
Seasholes, Mark, and Terrence Hendershott. "Liquidity Provision and Stock Return Predictability." Journal of Banking & Finance 45 (August 2014): 140–151.
- 2005
- Working Paper
Aggregate Corporate Liquidity and Stock Returns
By: Robin Greenwood
Aggregate investment in cash and liquid assets as a share of total corporate investment is negatively related to subsequent U.S. stock market returns between 1947 and 2003. The share of cash in total investment is a more stable predictor of returns than scaled price... View Details
- Article
Expected Stock Returns Worldwide: A Log-Linear Present-Value Approach
By: Akash Chattopadhyay, Matthew R. Lyle and Charles C.Y. Wang
This study provides the first large-scale study of the performance of expected-return proxies (ERPs) internationally. Analyst-forecast-based ICCs are sparsely populated and not robustly associated with future returns. Earnings-model-forecast-based ICCs are... View Details
Keywords: Expected Returns; Discount Rates; Fundamental Valuation; Implied Cost Of Capital; International Equity Markets; Present Value; Investment Return; Equity; Markets; Global Range
Chattopadhyay, Akash, Matthew R. Lyle, and Charles C.Y. Wang. "Expected Stock Returns Worldwide: A Log-Linear Present-Value Approach." Accounting Review 97, no. 2 (March 2022): 107–133.
- December 2020
- Article
Stock Market Returns and Consumption
By: Marco Di Maggio, Amir Kermani and Kaveh Majlesi
This paper employs Swedish data containing security level information on households' stock holdings to investigate how consumption responds to changes in stock market returns. We exploit households’ portfolio weights in previous years as an instrument for actual... View Details
Keywords: Capital Gain; Dividend Income; Consumption; Near-rational Behavior; Investment Return; Household; Spending; Behavior
Di Maggio, Marco, Amir Kermani, and Kaveh Majlesi. "Stock Market Returns and Consumption." Journal of Finance 75, no. 6 (December 2020): 3175–3219. (DFA Distinguished Paper Prize.)
- September – October 2007
- Article
Trading Patterns and Excess Comovement of Stock Returns
By: Robin Greenwood and Nathan Sosner
n April 2000, 30 stocks were replaced in the Nikkei 225 Index. The unusually broad index redefinition allowed for a study of the effects of index-linked trading on the excess comovement of stock returns. A large increase occurred in the correlation of trading volume of... View Details
Greenwood, Robin, and Nathan Sosner. "Trading Patterns and Excess Comovement of Stock Returns." Financial Analysts Journal 63, no. 5 (September–October 2007): 69–81.
- 20 Feb 2018
- Working Paper Summaries
Stock Market Returns and Consumption
- 2024
- Working Paper
Climate Solutions, Transition Risk, and Stock Returns
By: Shirley Lu, Edward J. Riedl, Simon Xu and George Serafeim
Using large language models to measure firms' climate solution products and services, we find that high-climate solution firms exhibit lower stock returns and higher market valuation multiples. Their stock prices respond positively to events signaling increased demand... View Details
Keywords: Technology; Generative Ai; Large Language Models; Climate Finance; Climate Change; Innovation and Invention; Environmental Sustainability; AI and Machine Learning; Investment; Financial Markets
Lu, Shirley, Edward J. Riedl, Simon Xu, and George Serafeim. "Climate Solutions, Transition Risk, and Stock Returns." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 25-024, November 2024.
- 31 Mar 2018
- Working Paper Summaries
Expected Stock Returns Worldwide: A Log-Linear Present-Value Approach
- 2005
- Working Paper
Investor Sentiment and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns
By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
We examine how investor sentiment affects the cross-section of stock returns. Theory predicts that a broad wave of sentiment will disproportionately affect stocks whose valuations are highly subjective and are difficult to arbitrage. We test this prediction by studying... View Details
Baker, Malcolm, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns." NBER Working Paper Series, No. w10449, April 2005. (First draft in 2003.)
- 2021
- Working Paper
Going by the Book: Valuation Ratios and Stock Returns
By: Ki-Soon Choi, Eric So and Charles C.Y. Wang
We study the use of firms’ book-to-market ratios (B/M) in value investing and its implications for comovements in firms’ stock returns and trading volumes. We show B/M has become increasingly detached from common alternative valuation ratios over time while also... View Details
Choi, Ki-Soon, Eric So, and Charles C.Y. Wang. "Going by the Book: Valuation Ratios and Stock Returns." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-126, May 2021.
- 2023
- Working Paper
Avoiding Idiosyncratic Volatility: Flow Sensitivity to Individual Stock Returns
By: Marco Di Maggio, Francesco Franzoni, Shimon Kogan and Ran Xing
Despite positive and significant earnings announcement premia, we find that institutional investors reduce their exposure to stocks before earnings announcements. A novel result on the sensitivity of flows to individual stock returns provides a potential explanation.... View Details
Keywords: New Trading; Mutual Funds; Fund Flows; Limits To Arbitrage; Financial Constraints; Earnings Announcements; Institutional Investing; Stocks
Di Maggio, Marco, Francesco Franzoni, Shimon Kogan, and Ran Xing. "Avoiding Idiosyncratic Volatility: Flow Sensitivity to Individual Stock Returns." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-072, March 2023. (Revise and Resubmit to The Journal of Finance.)
- Article
Risk and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns
By: Mark Seasholes, Radu Burlacu, Patrice Fontaine and Sonia Jimenez-Garces
This paper mathematically transforms unobservable rational expectation equilibrium model parameters (information precision and supply uncertainty) into a single variable that is correlated with expected returns and that can be estimated with recently observed data. Our... View Details
Keywords: Risk Premiums; Cross-sectional Asset Pricing; REE Models; Risk and Uncertainty; Asset Pricing; Investment Return
Seasholes, Mark, Radu Burlacu, Patrice Fontaine, and Sonia Jimenez-Garces. "Risk and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns." Journal of Financial Economics 105, no. 3 (September 2012): 511–522.