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- 2025
- Working Paper
Dynamic Personalization with Multiple Customer Signals: Multi-Response State Representation in Reinforcement Learning
Reinforcement learning (RL) offers potential for optimizing sequences of customer interactions by modeling the relationships
between customer states, company actions, and long-term value. However, its practical implementation often faces significant
challenges.... View Details
Keywords: Dynamic Policy; Deep Reinforcement Learning; Representation Learning; Dynamic Difficulty Adjustment; Latent Variable Models; Customer Relationship Management; Customer Value and Value Chain; Foreign Direct Investment; Analytics and Data Science
Ma, Liangzong, Ta-Wei Huang, Eva Ascarza, and Ayelet Israeli. "Dynamic Personalization with Multiple Customer Signals: Multi-Response State Representation in Reinforcement Learning." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 25-037, February 2025.
- January 2025
- Case
Ole Rosgaard at Greif
By: Krishna G. Palepu and Kerry Herman
Since taking over as CEO of industrial packaging giant Greif, Ole Rosgaard has focused on growing the company and improving the perception of its value by the capital markets. He and his senior leadership team have made inroads to this end, including adjusting the... View Details
- January 2025
- Case
A Winning Strategy (A): Innovation in Olympic Speed Skating
By: Rebecca Karp, Maria Roche, Maisie Wiltshire-Gordon and Tom Quinn
This case describes two innovators in the Olympic sport of speed skating: the U.S. Men’s team, which devised a new approach to the team pursuit event following their disappointing performance in the 2018 Winter Olympics; and Nils van der Poel, a Swedish skater who... View Details
- January 2025
- Supplement
A Winning Strategy (B): Innovation in Olympic Speed Skating
By: Rebecca Karp, Maria Roche, Maisie Wiltshire-Gordon and Tom Quinn
This case describes the aftermath of decisions made by two innovators in the Olympic sport of speed skating: the U.S. Men’s team, which devised a new approach to the team pursuit event; and Nils van der Poel, a Swedish skater who created a new training plan that defied... View Details
- 2025
- Book
Talk: The Science of Conversation and the Art of Being Ourselves
We all struggle with difficult conversations, but we're often not very good at easy ones either. Though we do it all the time, conversation is one of the most complex, demanding, and delicate of all human tasks, rife with possibilities for misinterpretation and... View Details
Keywords: Interpersonal Communication
Brooks, Alison Wood. Talk: The Science of Conversation and the Art of Being Ourselves. Crown, 2025.
- December 5, 2024
- Article
A Consensus Definition of Creativity in Surgery: A Delphi Study Protocol
By: Alex Thabane, Tyler McKechnie, Phillip Staibano, Vikram Arora, Goran Calic, Jason W. Busse, Sameer Parpia and Mohit Bhandari
Introduction
Clear definitions are essential in science, particularly in the study of abstract phenomena like creativity. Due to its inherent complexity and domain-specific nature, the study of creativity has been complicated, as evidenced by the various... View Details
Clear definitions are essential in science, particularly in the study of abstract phenomena like creativity. Due to its inherent complexity and domain-specific nature, the study of creativity has been complicated, as evidenced by the various... View Details
Thabane, Alex, Tyler McKechnie, Phillip Staibano, Vikram Arora, Goran Calic, Jason W. Busse, Sameer Parpia, and Mohit Bhandari. "A Consensus Definition of Creativity in Surgery: A Delphi Study Protocol." PLoS ONE 19, no. 12 (December 5, 2024).
- 2024
- Working Paper
Assessing Assessors
By: Huaizhi Chen and Lauren Cohen
Property tax revenues – the largest discretionary source of revenue for local governments - adjust at a pace that is inconsistent with property values in the US. We show that this form of revenue smoothing may be rooted in the political economy of municipalities.... View Details
Chen, Huaizhi, and Lauren Cohen. "Assessing Assessors." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 33238, December 2024.
- December 2024
- Article
Large Shocks Travel Fast
By: Alberto Cavallo, Francesco Lippi and Ken Miyahara
We document a sizeable increase in the frequency of price adjustments following the large energy shocks of 2022. We use a tractable New Keynesian model, calibrated to the pre-shock data, to interpret such a pattern. The calibration highlights the state-dependence of... View Details
Cavallo, Alberto, Francesco Lippi, and Ken Miyahara. "Large Shocks Travel Fast." American Economic Review: Insights 6, no. 4 (December 2024): 558–574.
- 2024
- Working Paper
Generative AI and the Nature of Work
By: Manuel Hoffmann, Sam Boysel, Frank Nagle, Sida Peng and Kevin Xu
Recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI) technology demonstrate considerable potential to
complement human capital intensive activities. While an emerging literature documents wide-ranging productivity
effects of AI, relatively little attention has been paid... View Details
Keywords: Generative Ai; Digital Work; Open Source Software; Knowledge Economy; AI and Machine Learning; Open Source Distribution; Organizational Structure; Performance Productivity; Labor
Hoffmann, Manuel, Sam Boysel, Frank Nagle, Sida Peng, and Kevin Xu. "Generative AI and the Nature of Work." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 25-021, October 2024.
- October 2024
- Article
Canary Categories
By: Eric Anderson, Chaoqun Chen, Ayelet Israeli and Duncan Simester
Past customer spending in a category is generally a positive signal of future customer spending. We show that there exist “canary categories” for which the reverse is true. Purchases in these categories are a signal that customers are less likely to return to that... View Details
Keywords: Churn; Churn Management; Churn/retention; Assortment Planning; Retail; Retailing; Retailing Industry; Preference Heterogeneity; Assortment Optimization; Customers; Retention; Consumer Behavior; Forecasting and Prediction; Retail Industry
Anderson, Eric, Chaoqun Chen, Ayelet Israeli, and Duncan Simester. "Canary Categories." Journal of Marketing Research (JMR) 61, no. 5 (October 2024): 872–890.
- 2024
- Working Paper
Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of U.S. Elections
By: Richard Calvo, Vincent Pons and Jesse M. Shapiro
Many observers have forecast large partisan shifts in the US electorate based on demographic trends. Such forecasts are appealing because demographic trends are often predictable even over long horizons. We backtest demographic forecasts using data on US elections... View Details
Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Voting; Political Elections; Trends; Forecasting and Prediction; Demographics
Calvo, Richard, Vincent Pons, and Jesse M. Shapiro. "Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of U.S. Elections." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 33016, October 2024.
- 2025
- Working Paper
Markups and Cost Pass-through Along the Supply Chain
By: Santiago E. Alvarez-Blaser, Alberto Cavallo, Alexander MacKay and Paolo Mengano
We study markups and pricing strategies along the supply chain. Our unique dataset combines detailed price and cost information from a large global manufacturer with matched retail prices collected online for the period July 2018 through June 2023. We show that total... View Details
Alvarez-Blaser, Santiago E., Alberto Cavallo, Alexander MacKay, and Paolo Mengano. "Markups and Cost Pass-through Along the Supply Chain." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 25-009, August 2024. (Revised January 2025.)
- August 2024
- Case
Oculii
By: Andy Wu and Lucas Defilippo
It was a bright June day in 2016. Steven Hong, co-founder and COO of Oculii had just signed a letter of intent agreeing to a 51% stake acquisition by Nexteer Automotive, a global steering and driveline supplier company that developed advanced driver assistance systems... View Details
- July 2024
- Article
JUE Insight: Infrastructure and Finance: Evidence from India's GQ Highway Network
By: Abhiman Das, Ejaz Ghani, Arti Grover, William Kerr and Ramana Nanda
We use data from Reserve Bank of India to study the impact of India's Golden Quadrilateral (GQ) highway project on finance-dependent activity. Loan volumes increase by 20-30% in districts along GQ and are stronger in industries more dependent upon external finance.... View Details
Keywords: Highways; Finance; Development; Infrastructure; Banks and Banking; Transportation Networks; Financing and Loans; Growth and Development; India
Das, Abhiman, Ejaz Ghani, Arti Grover, William Kerr, and Ramana Nanda. "JUE Insight: Infrastructure and Finance: Evidence from India's GQ Highway Network." Art. 103593. Journal of Urban Economics 142 (July 2024).
- June 2024 (Revised September 2024)
- Case
Major League Baseball: Changing the Rules of America's Pastime
By: Stephen A. Greyser, Mac Levin and Brent Schwarz
This case describes the efforts of Major League Baseball (MLB) to make meaningful changes in the rules affecting the ways the game is played. These changes are intended to speed the pace of the game and make it more appealing to younger fans. The principal changes... View Details
Keywords: Change Management; Age; Games, Gaming, and Gambling; Leading Change; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Demand and Consumers; Sports Industry
Greyser, Stephen A., Mac Levin, and Brent Schwarz. "Major League Baseball: Changing the Rules of America's Pastime." Harvard Business School Case 924-307, June 2024. (Revised September 2024.)
- June 2024 (Revised August 2024)
- Case
Hospital for Special Surgery: Returning to a New Normal? (A)
By: Robert S. Huckman, Michael Lingzhi Li and Camille Gregory
Early on the morning of April 27, 2020, Justin Oppenheimer stood outside the entrance to the lobby of the Hospital for Special Surgery (HSS) Pavilion Building with mixed emotions. On one hand, Oppenheimer, HSS’ Enterprise Chief Operating Officer and Chief Strategy... View Details
Keywords: Operations Management; Scheduling; Optimization; COVID-19; Health Care and Treatment; Operations; Customer Focus and Relationships; Disruption; Health Industry; United States
Huckman, Robert S., Michael Lingzhi Li, and Camille Gregory. "Hospital for Special Surgery: Returning to a New Normal? (A)." Harvard Business School Case 624-092, June 2024. (Revised August 2024.)
- 2022
- Working Paper
Pricing of Climate Risk Insurance: Regulation and Cross-Subsidies
By: Ishita Sen, Ana-Maria Tenekedjieva and Sangmin Oh
We study the consequences of state-level price (rate) regulation for U.S. homeowners' insurance, a $15 trillion market that provides households protection against climate losses. Using two distinct identification strategies and novel data on regulatory filings and ZIP... View Details
Keywords: Climate Risk; Homeowners' Insurance; Price Controls; Financial Regulation; Cross-subsidization; Climate Change; Household; Insurance; Price; Governance Controls; Financial Institutions; United States
Sen, Ishita, Ana-Maria Tenekedjieva, and Sangmin Oh. "Pricing of Climate Risk Insurance: Regulation and Cross-Subsidies." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-077, June 2024. (Revise and Resubmit, Journal of Finance. SSRN Working Paper Series, No. 3762235, June 2022)
- June 2024
- Article
Real Growth in Space Manufacturing Output Substantially Exceeds Growth in the Overall Space Economy
By: Tina Highfill and Matthew Weinzierl
Accurately measuring real economic output in the space economy is made difficult by the rapid increase in capabilities and decrease in prices of launch and satellite technologies achieved over the past two decades. Nominal measures of output in space will tend to... View Details
Highfill, Tina, and Matthew Weinzierl. "Real Growth in Space Manufacturing Output Substantially Exceeds Growth in the Overall Space Economy." Acta Astronautica 219 (June 2024): 236–242.
- 2024
- Working Paper
Does the Case for Private Equity Still Hold?
By: Nori Gerardo Lietz and Philipp Chvanov
Private Equity (“PE”) received a 10-fold increase in capital flows since the Great Financial Crisis (“GFC”) Investors sought higher nominal returns relative to those they could obtain in the public capital markets. This paper questions the fundamental assumptions... View Details
Lietz, Nori Gerardo, and Philipp Chvanov. "Does the Case for Private Equity Still Hold?" Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-066, January 2024.
- April 2024
- Article
How Our Ideological Out-Group Shapes Our Emotional Response to Our Shared Socio-Political Reality
By: Julia Elad-Strenger, Amit Goldenberg, Tamar Saguy and Eran Halperin
What shapes our emotional responses to socio-political events? Following the social identity approach, we suggest that individuals adjust their emotional responses to socio-political stimuli based on their ideological out-group's responses, in a manner that preserves... View Details
Elad-Strenger, Julia, Amit Goldenberg, Tamar Saguy, and Eran Halperin. "How Our Ideological Out-Group Shapes Our Emotional Response to Our Shared Socio-Political Reality." British Journal of Social Psychology 63, no. 2 (April 2024): 723–744.