Publications

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2018
Working Paper

Diagnostic Bubbles

By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon and Andrei Shleifer

We introduce diagnostic expectations into a standard setting of price formation in which investors learn about the fundamental value of an asset and trade it. We study the interaction of diagnostic expectations with two well-known mechanisms: learning from prices and... View Details

Keywords: Bubbles; Price Bubble; Mathematical Methods

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March 2012 (Revised October 2012)
Case

Hayman Capital Management

By: Robin Greenwood, Julie Messina and Jared Dourdeville

In late December 2011, Hayman Capital founder and portfolio manager Kyle Bass was reviewing Japanese government budget projections for 2012. The projections appeared contrary to Hayman Capital's views on Japan, where the fund had built a bearish position. Japan had the... View Details

Keywords: Investment Management; Speculative Bubbles; Japan; Government Policy; Financial Management; Price Bubble; Credit; Financial Strategy; Behavioral Finance; Government and Politics; Macroeconomics; Financial Services Industry; Japan

March 2011 (Revised April 2011)
Case

Gold in 2011: Bubble or Safe Haven Asset?

By: Robin Greenwood and Benjamin Steiner

Case explores the pricing of gold in 2011. Is the pricing justified or are we in a speculative bubble? What data are useful in determining a view on this question? View Details

Keywords: Inflation and Deflation; Money; Asset Management; Investment; Price Bubble; Policy; Risk Management

January 2003 (Revised September 2007)
Background Note

A Note on Racing to Acquire Customers

By: Thomas R. Eisenmann

Examines factors that motivate a firm's race to acquire customers in newly emerging markets and explores conditions under which racing strategies are likely to yield attractive returns. Provides a definition of racing behavior, introduces the notion of an optimal level... View Details

Keywords: Customers; Price Bubble; Network Effects; Emerging Markets; Market Entry and Exit; Behavior; Competition

09 Jan 2006
Research & Ideas

Rebuilding Commercial Real Estate

generating fewer new jobs than in previous recoveries, no one sees much chance of a speculative building bubble for office space. "New construction just hasn't gone crazy like it did in the '80s,"... View Details

Keywords: by Roger Thompson; Construction; Real Estate

April 2009 (Revised December 2015)
Case

Dot.com: Online Pet Retailing

By: Tom Nicholas and David Chen

From 1995 to 1999, the U.S. experienced a period of tremendous growth in its information technology (IT) sector. The IT industry, although it accounted for less than 10% of the U.S. economy's total output, contributed disproportionately to economic growth. One market... View Details

Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Price Bubble; Growth and Development Strategy; Failure; Competitive Strategy; Online Technology; Retail Industry