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Publications

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    • All HBS Web  (478)
      • Faculty Publications  (142)

      Sovereign Debt CrisisRemove Sovereign Debt Crisis →

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      • June 2025
      • Case

      TfL Pension Fund and the 2022 Gilt Market Crisis

      By: Emil N. Siriwardane, Vincent Dessain, Emer Moloney and Carlota Moniz
      On September 27, 2022, Padmesh Shukla, CIO of the Transport for London (TfL) Pension Fund, was keeping a careful eye on the turmoil in the U.K. sovereign bond (or gilt) market. When the new government announced the largest tax cuts the U.K. had seen in half a century,... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Crisis; Macroeconomics; Assets; Asset Management; Borrowing and Debt; Corporate Finance; Capital Markets; Equity; Public Equity; Private Equity; Financial Liquidity; Financial Instruments; Debt Securities; Credit Derivatives and Swaps; Bonds; Stocks; Financial Strategy; Interest Rates; Governance; Governing and Advisory Boards; Crisis Management; Resource Allocation; Investment; Financial Services Industry; United Kingdom; England; London; Europe
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      Siriwardane, Emil N., Vincent Dessain, Emer Moloney, and Carlota Moniz. "TfL Pension Fund and the 2022 Gilt Market Crisis." Harvard Business School Case 225-098, June 2025.
      • April 2025
      • Article

      Crisis Interventions in Corporate Insolvency

      By: Samuel Antill and Christopher Clayton
      We model the optimal resolution of insolvent firms in general equilibrium. Collateral-constrained banks lend to (i) solvent firms to finance investments and (ii) distressed firms to avoid liquidation. Liquidations create negative fire-sale externalities. Liquidations... View Details
      Keywords: Insolvent Firms; Government Intervention; Liquidation; Econometric Models; Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Policy
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      Antill, Samuel, and Christopher Clayton. "Crisis Interventions in Corporate Insolvency." Journal of Finance 80, no. 2 (April 2025): 875–910.
      • 2024
      • Other Unpublished Work

      A Proposal for the IMF: A New Instrument of International Liquidity Provision for Emerging Markets and Developing Economies

      By: Laura Alfaro, Guillermo Calvo, José de Gregorio, Augusto de la Torre, Pablo Guidotti, Enrique Mendoza, Ernesto Talvi, Liliana Rojas-Suarez and Andrés Velasco
      This paper addresses a critical flaw in the international financial system: the failure to address the inherent asymmetry between countries that issue reserve currencies and those that do not, leaving the latter vulnerable during systemic liquidity crises. We propose... View Details
      Keywords: Macroeconomics; Emerging Markets; Financial Markets; International Finance; Developing Countries and Economies; Latin America
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      Alfaro, Laura, Guillermo Calvo, José de Gregorio, Augusto de la Torre, Pablo Guidotti, Enrique Mendoza, Ernesto Talvi, Liliana Rojas-Suarez, and Andrés Velasco. "A Proposal for the IMF: A New Instrument of International Liquidity Provision for Emerging Markets and Developing Economies." Comité Latinoamericano de Asuntos Financieros (CLAAF) Statement, 345, October 2024.
      • 2024
      • Working Paper

      Corporate Debt, Boom-Bust Cycles, and Financial Crises

      By: Victoria Ivashina, Sebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Luc Laeven and Karsten Müller
      Using a new dataset on sectoral credit exposures covering financial and non-financial sectors in 115 economies over the period 1940–2014, we document the following evidence that corporate debt plays a key role in explaining boom-bust cycles, financial crises, and slow... View Details
      Keywords: Financial Crisis; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Economic Growth; Economic Sectors; Borrowing and Debt; Credit
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      Ivashina, Victoria, Sebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Luc Laeven, and Karsten Müller. "Corporate Debt, Boom-Bust Cycles, and Financial Crises." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 32225, March 2024.
      • October 2023
      • Case

      Leading Transformation at IHCL

      By: Krishna G. Palepu, V.G. Narayanan and Malini Sen
      In November 2017, Puneet Chhatwal, took charge as MD and CEO of IHCL, popularly referred to as the Taj Hotels. Despite being India’s largest hospitality company by market capitalization and respected for its values and service, IHCL had made losses for the last seven... View Details
      Keywords: Turn Around Management; Hospitality Industry; Brand Management; Financial Strategy; Business Model; Restructuring; Asset Management; Leadership Style; Crisis Management; Brands and Branding; Product Positioning; Segmentation; Asia; India
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      Palepu, Krishna G., V.G. Narayanan, and Malini Sen. "Leading Transformation at IHCL." Harvard Business School Case 124-041, October 2023.
      • 2023
      • Working Paper

      Sovereign Default and the Decline in Interest Rates

      By: Max Miller, James Paron and Jessica Wachter
      Sovereign debt yields have declined dramatically over the last half-century. Standard explanations, including aging populations and increases in asset demand from abroad, encounter difficulties when confronted with the full range of evidence. We propose an explanation... View Details
      Keywords: Inflation and Deflation; Interest Rates; Debt Securities
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      Miller, Max, James Paron, and Jessica Wachter. "Sovereign Default and the Decline in Interest Rates." Working Paper, June 2023. (Revise and Resubmit, Review of Financial Studies.)
      • May 2023 (Revised July 2024)
      • Case

      America's Budget Impasse, 2009–2023

      By: Richard Vietor
      In May of 2023, President Biden faced a crisis of debt. The debt ceiling was about to be breached, while House Republicans demanded cuts of $3.5 trillion if they were to raise the ceiling. President Biden refused. The case consists of excerpts from President Obama’s... View Details
      Keywords: Government Administration; Economy
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      Vietor, Richard. "America's Budget Impasse, 2009–2023." Harvard Business School Case 723-063, May 2023. (Revised July 2024.)
      • April 2023
      • Case

      Burning the Sails to Save the Ship: The Pilati Family Dilemma

      By: Lauren Cohen, Hao Gao, Jiawei Ye and Grace Headinger
      Octavian Graf Pilati, rising generation member of an Austrian princely family, prepared to sell the palace his family had held for over three hundred years. In recent years, the Pilati family lands had been leveraged as loan collateral for an international venture that... View Details
      Keywords: Family Office; Family; Plant-Based Agribusiness; Agribusiness; Family Business; Property; Identity; Culture; Ethics; Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Governance; Crisis Management; Family and Family Relationships; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Real Estate Industry; Austria
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      Cohen, Lauren, Hao Gao, Jiawei Ye, and Grace Headinger. "Burning the Sails to Save the Ship: The Pilati Family Dilemma." Harvard Business School Case 223-081, April 2023.
      • February 2023
      • Supplement

      Performance Management at Afreximbank (B)

      By: Robert S. Kaplan, Siko Sikochi, Anna Ngarachu and Namrata Arora
      Supplements the (A) case. Founded in October 1993, the Cairo-based African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) was a specialized continental financial institution designed to address the low level of intra-African trade, the decline in financial flows to Africa, the... View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic; Performance Evaluation; Organizational Culture; Crisis Management; Banking Industry; Africa
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      Kaplan, Robert S., Siko Sikochi, Anna Ngarachu, and Namrata Arora. "Performance Management at Afreximbank (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 123-043, February 2023.
      • October 2022 (Revised February 2024)
      • Case

      Masdar City: Aiming for Sustainable and Profitable Real Estate

      By: Boris Vallee and Fares Khrais
      Masdar City broke ground in 2008 and was conceived by the Abu Dhabi government to be an international beacon of innovation in sustainable energy and real estate. It was also to be a profitable investment for the government. At first glance, the two goals pulled in... View Details
      Keywords: Analysis; Business Growth And Maturation; Decisions; Public Sector; Financial Crisis; Construction; Climate Change; Green Technology; Borrowing And Debt; Corporate Finance; Capital; Capital Budgeting; Capital Structure; Cost Of Capital; Equity; REIT; Financial Management; Financial Strategy; Initial Public Offering; Innovation; Growth And Development Strategy; Emerging Markets; Urban Development; Middle East; United Arab Emirates; Sustainable Cities; Green Building; Business and Government Relations; Decision Choices and Conditions; Financing and Loans; Real Estate Industry; Construction Industry; Energy Industry; Green Technology Industry; Abu Dhabi
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      Vallee, Boris, and Fares Khrais. "Masdar City: Aiming for Sustainable and Profitable Real Estate." Harvard Business School Case 223-036, October 2022. (Revised February 2024.)
      • October 2022
      • Article

      Sovereign Risk, Currency Risk, and Corporate Balance Sheets

      By: Wenxin Du and Jesse Schreger
      We provide a comprehensive account of the evolution of the currency composition of sovereign and corporate external borrowing by emerging markets from 2003 to 2017. We show that a higher reliance on foreign currency debt by the corporate sector is associated with... View Details
      Keywords: Currency; International Finance
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      Du, Wenxin, and Jesse Schreger. "Sovereign Risk, Currency Risk, and Corporate Balance Sheets." Review of Financial Studies 35, no. 10 (October 2022): 4587–4629.
      • Article

      Undisclosed Debt Sustainability

      By: Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk
      Over the past decade, non-Paris Club creditors, notably China, have become an important source of financing for low- and middle-income countries. In contrast with typical sovereign debt, these lending arrangements are not public, and other creditors have no information... View Details
      Keywords: Paris Club; Transparency; Sovereign Finance; Borrowing and Debt; International Finance
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      Alfaro, Laura, and Fabio Kanczuk. "Undisclosed Debt Sustainability." AEA Papers and Proceedings 112 (May 2022): 521–525.
      • February 2022 (Revised May 2022)
      • Case

      Jaypee Infratech and the Indian Bankruptcy Code

      By: Kristin Mugford, William Vrattos and Radhika Kak
      In 2016, India passed a new bankruptcy law (IBC) to counter a brewing bank crisis and increased corporate distress. Homebuilder Jaypee Infratech, one of India largest distressed companies (the “dirty dozen”) began restructuring under the IBC in 2017. Two years later,... View Details
      Keywords: Restructuring; Decisions; Judgments; Voting; Developing Countries and Economies; Financial Crisis; Public Sector; Asset Pricing; Borrowing and Debt; Corporate Finance; Credit; Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Debt Securities; Bonds; Investment Return; Price; Government Legislation; Laws and Statutes; Bids and Bidding; Business and Stakeholder Relations; Risk and Uncertainty; Valuation; Real Estate Industry; India; Delhi
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      Mugford, Kristin, William Vrattos, and Radhika Kak. "Jaypee Infratech and the Indian Bankruptcy Code." Harvard Business School Case 222-071, February 2022. (Revised May 2022.)
      • November 2021 (Revised January 2024)
      • Case

      The Global Great Depression, 1929-1939

      By: Alberto Cavallo, Sophus A. Reinert and Federica Gabrieli
      The Great Depression was, by far, the worst economic contraction of the twentieth century, and some of the most important ideas about both fiscal and monetary policy in the second half of the century were developed in response to it. The economic collapse, which... View Details
      Keywords: Great Depression; Economic Conditions; Unemployment; Homelessness; Financial Crisis; History; Economy; Policy; Poverty; Social Issues; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation
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      Cavallo, Alberto, Sophus A. Reinert, and Federica Gabrieli. "The Global Great Depression, 1929-1939." Harvard Business School Case 722-034, November 2021. (Revised January 2024.)
      • February 2021 (Revised March 2023)
      • Supplement

      The Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic and the Global Economy (B)

      By: Alberto Cavallo and Christian Godwin
      By December 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic had swept across the globe, creating widespread disruption in all aspects of everyday life. Almost 90 million people had been infected and nearly two million had died from the disease. By this point in the pandemic—a year since... View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19 Pandemic; Economy; Health Pandemics; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Global Range; Crisis Management; Disruption
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      Cavallo, Alberto, and Christian Godwin. "The Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic and the Global Economy (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 721-434, February 2021. (Revised March 2023.)
      • January 2021
      • Supplement

      Aster DM Healthcare: Budget Exercise

      By: V.G. Narayanan and Amy Klopfenstein
      In April 2020, Alisha Moopen, Deputy Managing Director of Aster DM Healthcare, a network of clinics, hospitals, and pharmacies in the Middle East and India, must create her company’s budget for the 2021 fiscal year in light of the onset of Covid-19. The pandemic had... View Details
      Keywords: Decision Making; Decisions; Forecasting and Prediction; Judgments; Decision Choices and Conditions; Cost vs Benefits; Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Financial Institutions; Banks and Banking; Financial Condition; Financial Liquidity; Accounting; Budgets and Budgeting; Management; Crisis Management; Health Pandemics; Health Industry; Asia; India; United Arab Emirates; Dubai
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      Narayanan, V.G., and Amy Klopfenstein. "Aster DM Healthcare: Budget Exercise." Harvard Business School Spreadsheet Supplement 121-025, January 2021.
      • January 2021
      • Case

      Aster DM Healthcare: Budgeting for a Crisis

      By: V.G. Narayanan and Amy Klopfenstein
      In April 2020, Alisha Moopen, Deputy Managing Director of Aster DM Healthcare, a network of clinics, hospitals, and pharmacies in the Middle East and India, must create her company’s budget for the 2021 fiscal year in light of the onset of Covid-19. The pandemic had... View Details
      Keywords: Decision Making; Decisions; Forecasting and Prediction; Judgments; Decision Choices and Conditions; Cost vs Benefits; Budgets and Budgeting; Health Pandemics; Health Industry; Asia; India; United Arab Emirates; Dubai
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      Narayanan, V.G., and Amy Klopfenstein. "Aster DM Healthcare: Budgeting for a Crisis." Harvard Business School Case 121-001, January 2021.
      • January 2021 (Revised February 2021)
      • Case

      Carnival Corporation: Cruising Through COVID-19

      By: Stuart C. Gilson and Sarah Abbott
      In March 2020, in response to the global pandemic, the cruise industry ceased operations. Carnival was the largest cruise line operator in the world, and CEO Arnold Donald and his management team worked to position the company to survive. They slashed operating... View Details
      Keywords: Debt Issuance; Equity Issuances; Convertible Debt; Cruise Lines; Restructuring; Capital; Crisis Management; Cash Flow; Health Pandemics; Borrowing and Debt; Travel Industry; United States
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      Gilson, Stuart C., and Sarah Abbott. "Carnival Corporation: Cruising Through COVID-19." Harvard Business School Case 221-028, January 2021. (Revised February 2021.)
      • December 2020
      • Article

      Sovereign Debt Portfolios, Bond Risks, and the Credibility of Monetary Policy

      By: Wenxin Du, Carolin Pflueger and Jesse Schreger
      We document that governments whose local currency debt provides them with greater hedging benefits actually borrow more in foreign currency. We introduce two features into a government's debt portfolio choice problem to explain this finding: risk-averse lenders and... View Details
      Keywords: Investment Portfolio; Currency; Policy; Risk and Uncertainty
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      Du, Wenxin, Carolin Pflueger, and Jesse Schreger. "Sovereign Debt Portfolios, Bond Risks, and the Credibility of Monetary Policy." Journal of Finance 75, no. 6 (December 2020): 3097–3138.
      • 2020
      • Chapter

      Reserve Accumulation, Sovereign Debt, and Exchange Rate Policy

      By: Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk
      In the past decade, foreign participation in local-currency bond markets in emerging countries increased dramatically. Additionally, emerging countries are increasingly deviating from inflation targeting regimes, managing their exchange rate and engaging in... View Details
      Keywords: Reserves; Exchange Rate; Sovereign Finance; Currency Exchange Rate; Policy
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      Alfaro, Laura, and Fabio Kanczuk. "Reserve Accumulation, Sovereign Debt, and Exchange Rate Policy." In Asset Management at Central Banks and Monetary Authorities: New Practices in Managing International Foreign Exchange Reserves, edited by Jacob Bjorheim. Springer, 2020. (Book link.)
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